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Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook

 
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Severe Thunderstorm Risk
Current time - 8 am
24 Hr. Hazards
Day 1
Spotter Outlook
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tornado
 
 
 
 
 
 
Hail
 
 
 
 
 
 
Thunderstorm Wind Gust
 
 
 
 
 
 
Aviation
 
 
 
 
 
 
Severe Thunderstorms
Lightning
Flooding
Fire Weather
Grassland Fire Weather Index
Fog
Non Thunderstorm Winds
Snow & Sleet
Ice Accumulation
Frost & Freeze
Excessive Cold
Coastal Flood
Marine Hazard
Freezing Spray
 
Spotter Outlook Legend         Severe Thunderstorm Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
Spotters will not be needed for severe weather activation today or tonight.
Yes
Spotters may be needed later in the day or tonight. Any reports of severe or hazardous weather would be appreciated..
Spotter Reports can be submitted here: NWS New York, NY Storm Report
Tornado Risk Legend         Tornado Safety Tips
 Risk Level
Definition
None
No tornado risk.
Limited
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point:
less than 10 percent.
Elevated
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 10 percent.
Significant
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 30 percent.
Extreme
Probability of a  tornado within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 45 percent.
Hail Risk Legend         Severe Thunderstorm Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No risk of hail.
Limited
Risk of sub-severe hail (less than 1")
or
Probability of severe hail (1" or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
less than 15%
Elevated
Probability of severe hail (1" or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 15%
Significant
Probability of severe hail (1" or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 45%
Extreme
Probability of severe hail (1" or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 60%
Thunderstorm Wind Gust Risk Legend         Severe Thunderstorm Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No thunderstorm wind risk.
Limited
Risk for sub-severe wind gusts (less than 58 mph)
or
Probability of severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Less than 15%
Elevated
Probability of severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 15%
Significant
Probability of severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 45%
Extreme
Probability of severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 60%
Aviation Flight Cateogories Legend          TAFs   NY Strategic Planning Aid (SPA)   Hourly Forecasts:
 
Flight Level
Definition
VFR
Ceiling >= 3000 feet and Visibility >= 6SM
MVFR
Ceiling 2000-3000 feet or Visibility 3-5SM
Fuel Alt MVFR
Ceiling 1000-2000 feet
IFR
Ceiling 500-1000 feet or Visibility 1-3SM
VLIFR
Ceiling <=500 feet or Visibility <1SM.
Severe Thunderstorm Legend         Severe Thunderstorm Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition Severe Thunderstorm Risk Day 2 to 7
None
No risk of severe thunderstorms.
Limited
Risk for severe thunderstorms with the
Probability of severe thunderstorms* within 25 miles of a point:
Less than 15%
Elevated
Probability of severe thunderstorms* within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 15%
Significant
Probability of severe thunderstorms* within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 45%
Extreme
Probability of severe thunderstorms* within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 60%
Lightning Legend         Lightning Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No lightning risk
Limited
Thunderstorms expected to be isolated to scattered in coverage. 
Atmospheric conditions support cloud to ground lightning strikes in and near thunderstorms.
Elevated
Thunderstorms expected to be numerous in coverage.
  Atmospheric conditions support cloud to ground lightning strikes in and near thunderstorms.
Significant
Widespread thunderstorms are expected.
  Atmospheric conditions support cloud to ground lightning strikes in and near thunderstorms.
Extreme
Thunderstorms are expected with nearly continuous cloud to ground lightning strikes in and near thunderstorms.
Flooding Legend         Flooding Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No Flooding risk.
Limited
Risk of localized flash flooding of small streams and low water crossings, and minor flooding of poor drainage or urban areas.
2% to 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance
Elevated
Risk of flash flooding of several low water crossings, roads, and small streams,
or
Minor River Flooding.
5% to 10% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance
Significant
Risk of flash flooding of numerous roads, low water crossings, and small streams,
or
Moderate river flooding.
10% to 15% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance
Extreme
Risk of widespread flash flooding of low water crossings, roads, and small streams,
or
Major river flooding.
Greater than 15% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance
Fire Weather Legend         Wildfire Weather Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
Open burning is usually safe with proper containers and precautions under low fire danger conditions. 
Residents should always check on local ordinances that prohibit open burning under any conditions.
Limited
Open burning is usually safe with the proper precautions.
Burning should be done in the early morning and late evening to avoid windier and drier conditions from midday through mid-afternoon. 

Residents should always check on local ordinances that prohibit open burning under any conditions.
Elevated
Any open burning is discouraged due to increased wind and lower humidity - except by experienced fire personnel
Increasing winds and lower humidity contribute to drying fuels. Fires escape control more easily and containment is difficult for inexperienced fire personnel.
Approaching Red Flag conditions.
Significant
Open burning should not be attempted.
High winds and extended dry periods lead to extreme burning conditions. Open fires can quickly escape and are very difficult to control, even for experienced fire fighters. 
Conditions exceed minimum criteria for a Red Flag Warning in most cases.
Extreme
Very strong winds, well in excess of Red Flag Criteria combined with moderate to low humidity.
Fires will spread very quickly with spot fires common. Fire control is extremely difficult due to very strong winds.
***These definitions are geared towards the general public and general emergency management and should not be confused with the standard National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) adjectives used by wildland fire personnel.
The fire weather category for the Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook is based primarily on predicted wind, humidity and temperature, and does not account for fuel moisture from recent precipitation, snow cover and recently melted snow.  Appropriate adjustments to the fire environment must be made.
Fire weather hazard categories will normally be more restricted, generally in the "none" or "limited" categories from May 1st to September 30th due to normally predominant green and moist live vegetation.  This will be subject to change during unusual severe Spring and/or Summer drought.
Grassland Fire Weather Legend         Wildfire Weather Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
Low-Moderate
Favorable to marginal weather conditions with moderate to high moisture content of grasses and other dry organic material on the ground, indicating that the probability of a fast moving fire is low to a slight potential. Outdoor burning under these conditions can usually be performed with reasonable safety precautions, but should be monitored. Difficulty of fire suppression: Headfire can generally be stopped by road and tracks in low conditions and with water under moderate conditions.
High
Unfavorable weather conditions and low moisture content of grasses and other dry organic material on the ground, indicating that there is a high potential for fire to spread. Outdoor burning should be restricted to early morning or evening hours when wind speeds are usually lower and the relative humidity is higher. Burning is still favorable for well-planned burns by experienced land management personnel. Difficulty of fire suppression: Headfire attack generally successful with water.
Very High
Very poor weather conditions and very low moisture content of grasses and other dry organic material on the ground, indicating that dangerous burning conditions exist. Fires will spread rapidly and show erratic behavior. Outdoor burning is not recommended other than for experienced land management personnel. Difficulty of fire suppression: Direct headfire attack will become increasingly difficult. Spot fires are more likely.
Extreme (GFDI 50-75)
Extreme weather conditions and very low moisture content of grasses and other dry organic material on the ground, indicating that critical burning conditions exist. All fires have the potential to become large and spread quickly and become erratic with extreme fire behavioral characteristics. Difficulty of fire suppression: Direct attack on a headfire will generally fail. Back burn from a secure good line with adequate manpower and equipment. Flanks may become more difficult to control in shifting or erratic winds. Spot fires are likely.
Extreme (GFDI > 75)
Extreme grassland fire weather conditions that are rarely experienced in our area. Very high winds and low humidity with very dry cured grasses. Any fire that starts will spread rapidly and almost impossible to control. Fire suppression: Direct attack will likely fail, especially in heavy fuel loads.
The Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) is a numerical value that indicates the potential for grassland fires to experience extreme fire behavior. The GFDI combines the curing (%), temperature (deg C), relative humidity (%), and the average of the sustained wind and wind gust speed (km/hr).
 
Fog Legend         Fog Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No risk of fog.
Limited
Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1 mile.
Elevated
Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/2 mile
Significant
Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile.
Extreme
Fog with near zero visibilities.
Non Thunderstorm Wind Legend         Wind Safety Tips     Boating Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
Sustained winds < 20 mph
and
Wind gusts < 30 mph.
Limited
Sustained winds 20-30 mph
or
Wind gusts 30-45 mph.
Elevated
Sustained winds 31-39 mph
or
Wind gusts 46-57 mph.
Significant
Sustained winds 40-49 mph
or
Wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Extreme
Sustained winds > 50 mph
or
Wind gusts > 65 mph.
Excessive Heat Legend         Excessive Heat Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
Maximum Apparent Temperature < 85
Limited
Maximum Apparent Temperature 85 to 90
Elevated

Maximum Apparent Temperature 91 to 94

Significant

Maximum Apparent Temperature 95 to 104
OR
Maximum Apparent Temperature greater than or equal to 95 for 2 consecutive days.

Extreme
Maximum Apparent Temperature greater than or equal to 105
Note:
Apparent Temperature is defined as:
  Wind Chill Temperature during the cold season.
  Heat Index Temperature during the warm season.
Snow and Sleet Legend         Winter Weather Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No snow or sleet.
Limited
Snow and/or sleet with less than 2 inch of accumulation expected.
Elevated
Snow and/or sleet with 2 to 6 inches of accumulation expected.
Significant
Snow and/or sleet with 6 to 12 inches of accumulation expected.
Extreme
Snow and/or sleet with greater than or equal to 12 inches of accumulation expected.
Ice Accumulation Legend         Winter Weather Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No freezing rain or drizzle.
Limited
Very light freezing rain or drizzle with up to a thin glaze, OR Freezing Fog.
Elevated
Freezing rain or drizzle with accumulation less than 1/2 inch.
Significant
Freezing rain with accumulation of 1/2 inch to less than 1 inch.
Extreme
Freezing rain with accumulation of greater than or equal to 1 inch.
Frost and Freeze Legend
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No danger of frost or freeze causing damage to vegetation.
Limited
Patchy frost during the growing season with minor damage to unprotected vegetation.
Elevated
Frost expected during the growing season with damage to unprotected vegetation. 
This may include temperatures less than or equal to 32 degrees F for less than 3 hours.
Significant
Freeze expected (less than or equal to 32 degrees F for 3 or more hours) during the growing season with significant damage to unprotected vegetation.
Extreme
Hard freeze (less than or equal to 28 degrees F) during the growing season with catastrophic damage to unprotected vegetation.
Excessive Cold Legend         Extreme Cold Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
Minimum apparent temperature greater than 0 degrees F.
Limited
Minimum apparent temperature 0 to -14 deg F.
Elevated
Minimum apparent temperature -15 to -24 deg. F
Significant
Minimum apparent temperature -25 to -34 deg. F.
Extreme
Minimum apparent temperature less than or equal to -35 degrees F
Note:
Apparent Temperature is defined as:
  Wind Chill Temperature during the cold season.
  Heat Index Temperature during the warm season.
Coastal Flood Legend         Flooding Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No Coastal Flooding risk.
Limited
Less than 1 foot of inundation in shoreline and vulnerable areas. Localized shoreline and vulnerable roadways and adjacent properties will briefly experience minor flooding.
Elevated

1 to 2 feet of inundation in shoreline and vulnerable areas. A few shoreline and vulnerable roadways and adjacent properties will experience shallow flooding.
There is a low threat of property damage. There is no direct threat to life.

Significant

2 to 3 feet of inundation in shoreline and vulnerable areas. Elevated threat of property damage, with a risk to life if one places themselves in unnecessary danger. Several shoreline and vulnerable are home and businesses will experience water inside.
Several low-lying coastal and shoreline roads will be closed. A few cars may take on water or even be destroyed.

Extreme
3 to 5 feet of inundation in shoreline and other vulnerable areas, and 1 to 3 feet of inundation in surrounding coastal communities that rarely experience coastal flooding. Evacuations will be necessary for shoreline and vulnerable coastal areas due to a life threatening flooding threat. Many coastal communities will experience damage, with some shoreline and flood prone homes and businesses being destroyed. Many cars will likely be submerged or washed away. Several sections of nearshore roads and escape routes will be impassable and a few could be washed out.
Flood waters may extend well inland in low lying areas.
Swim Risk Legend         Rip Current Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No Swim Risk.
Limited
A limited risk of swimming hazards imply that large waves and strong currents are not expected along the shore. However, dangerous currents can still form near river mouths and shoreline structures, such as piers or breakwalls, even during low wave heights.
Elevated
An elevated risk of swimming hazards imply that large waves and strong currents are likely along the shore. Only experienced swimmers should consider entering the water. Stay away from river mouths and shoreline stuctures.
Significant
A significant risk of swimming hazards imply dangerous waves and currents are expected along the shore. Swimming conditions may be life threatening to anyone entering the water.
Extreme
 
The Swim Risk grids are only generated during the swimming season, generally from mid June through the end of September.
High Surf Legend         Beach Hazard and Surf Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No High Surf Risk.
Limited
Wave height >= 2 feet and Wave Period > 3 seconds.
Elevated
Wave Height >= 4 feet and Wave Period > 4 seconds.
Significant
Wave Height >= 6 feet and Wave Period > 5 seconds.
Extreme
Wave Height > 8 feet.
Marine Hazard Legend
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No Marine Hazards Risk.
Limited
Winds 15 to 24 knots and/or Waves >= 2 feet.
Elevated
Winds 25 to 33 knots and/or Waves >= 5 feet.
Significant
Winds 34 to 47 knots and/or Waves >= 10 feet.
Extreme
Winds >= 48 knots and/or Waves >= 20 feet.
Freezing Spray Legend
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No Freezing Spray Risk.
Limited
Moderate Freezing Spray Expected.
Elevated
 
Significant
Heavy Freezing Spray Expected.
Extreme
 

The Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook is an experimental product that will be posted to this page for evaluation. We encourage your comments or suggestions for improvements using the electronic survey provided. Your feedback will help us determine product utility, if modifications are needed, and whether the product should become part of our operational suite. | Product Description Document

The Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook is a decision support service that supports preparedness and response efforts prior to and during hazardous weather.  This service provides decision makers with convenient access to potential weather hazard information by graphically depicting the risk of weather hazards out through seven days.