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446
FWUS45 KABQ 151200
SAGABQ

Backcountry Forecast for the Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
500 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 9kft and 10kft-
500 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....Around 40.
Min Humidity........16-21 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 36.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min Temperature.....15-20.
Max Humidity........39-52 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 6.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....Around 44.
Min Humidity........17 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 43.
Surface Winds.......West winds up to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns between 10kft and 11kft-
500 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....35-40.
Min Humidity........18 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 34.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min Temperature.....Around 19.
Max Humidity........34-44 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 7.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....39-44.
Min Humidity........16 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 41.
Surface Winds.......West winds up to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$

Northern Sangre de Cristo Mtns above 11kft-
500 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....29-36.
Min Humidity........16-21 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 29.
Surface Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min Temperature.....Around 19.
Max Humidity........34 percent.
Min Wind Chill......Around 6.
Surface Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max Temperature.....32-40.
Min Humidity........17 percent.
Max Wind Chill......Around 36.
Surface Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of Pcpn......0 percent.
Pcpn Amount.........0.00 inches.
Snowfall Amount.....0.0 inches.


$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 151113 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
413 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Enhanced northerly drainage wind expected at KSAF 13-17Z. Sfc lee
trof developing, producing occasionally breezy southwest winds aft
19Z, with gusts to around 25kt impacting KLVS and KTCC. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...245 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure aloft will build across NM from the west today
with temperatures returning to near to slightly above normal. A lee
surface trough will develop in the eastern plains Saturday, and
breezy south to southwest winds are expected east of the central
mountains. High temperatures Saturday will be near normal in southern
central NM and above normal elsewhere. A low pressure area will track
eastward near the AZ and Mexico border Sunday and Sunday night.
Areas of light rain and snow will change to all snow Sunday night.
The highest chance for precipitation will be south of I-40, and 2 to
5 inches of snow will be possible in the southwest and south central
mountains. The system will move east of NM Monday with a few rain and
snow showers lingering across portions of south central and
southeastern NM. Temperatures Sunday will be below normal and will be
near to slightly below normal Monday. High pressure aloft will
slowly move across NM Tuesday and Wednesday with a gradual warming
trend. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
Tuesday and well above normal Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper level trough over western and central TX this morning
will move rapidly eastward today, allowing a weak upper level ridge
to move in from the west. Southwest winds will gust to near 25 mph
across the eastern plains this afternoon, as a weak surface trough
develops in eastern CO. Warmer temperatures aloft this afternoon
will result in milder temperatures than yesterday with high
temperatures today near normal in southern central NM and above
normal elsewhere. A shortwave ridge will crest over NM Saturday with
temperatures remaining near normal across southern central NM and
above normal across the rest of the region. Highs will be 8 to 14
degrees above normal in the northeastern and east central plains
Saturday, where breezy downsloping west to southwest winds will
cause compressional warming.

A fairly cold upper low will move eastward along the AZ/Mexico border
Sunday and Sunday night. The 00Z runs of NAM and ECMWF indicate that
this low will remain closed as it moves eastward, while the 00Z run
of the GFS shows the feature as an open wave. Consequently, the GFS
projects that the low pressure system will advect moisture northward
across most of central and northern NM, while moisture is not
transported as far north around the closed low depicted by the NAM
and ECMWF. For this forecast, a blend of these solutions has been
adopted. The best chance for light to moderate precipitation will be
south of I-40, while lighter amounts are projected for points to the
north. The southwest and south central mountains could see 2 to 5
inches of snowfall by Monday morning. Temperatures at 700 millibars
will fall to between minus 5 and minus 8 C by Sunday evening as the
low nears the state, and all precipitation should be in the form of
snow. The positively tilted upper low and associated trough will
weaken rapidly and move across eastern NM Monday. A few rain showers
and high elevation snow showers are possible Monday, mainly south of
I-40, with residual moisture and cold temperatures aloft.

A flat ridge moves over NM on Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures
returning to above normal across the region. The height gradient
aloft will tighten Wednesday, while a lee surface trough will form in
the eastern plains. These factors will cause an increase in winds
east of the central mountains with west winds gusting between 20 and
30 mph Wednesday afternoon. An upper level trough will move eastward
across the central Rockies Wednesday night and Thursday, and a strong
Pacific front and a backdoor front will move into NM. Daytime temperatures
Thursday will fall to near normal, while daytime temperatures Friday
could be the coldest of the fall and early winter seasons.

28

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier and warmer today with highs mostly above average. Widespread
poor ventilation rates today despite the development of a surface
lee trough which will result in afternoon westerly breezes east
central. Winds strengthen in the east on Saturday as a surface low
deepens over northeast NM and temperatures continue a warming trend
by a few degrees. Localized critical fire weather conditions remain
forecast to develop in the east central Saturday afternoon but not
covering a sufficiently large area to consider a fire weather watch.
Widespread poor vent rates forecast for much of northern NM Saturday
afternoon with areas of good rates south of Interstate 40.

Still hard to say what will happen Saturday night through Monday.
Models remain focused on the potential for an upper trough/low
passing over the state but the details such as timing and location
of any precipitation remain sketchy at best. The 00Z ECMWF is
definitely wetter as it develops more energy into a closed low over
south central AZ Sunday, which is substantially different from the
solution 24 hrs ago. The one thing that is consistent is the influx
of colder air over the region Sunday, with highs dipping to a few
degrees below average. Forecast vent rates Sunday are poor across
the east but good over much of the central and west.

Models do agree any precipitation should exit by Monday night.
Stronger, generally zonal flow is forecast to develop Tuesday then
persist into Wednesday night/Thursday. High temperatures soar to 5
to 15 degrees above average Wednesday as westerly winds strengthen.
Thursday could be quite windy but again more substantial model
differences show up, with the ECMWF suggesting a stronger storm
system with a more southerly track. In any event, look for much
colder temperatures Thursday/Friday. Vent rates Monday through
Wednesday will see some localized good conditions but will be mostly
poor thanks to forecast low mixing heights. Rates next Friday could
see a significant improvement, depending how/if the incoming storm
system pans out.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

 
 
 
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Avalanche Advisories for the Northern Sangre de Cristo mountains are issued by the Taos Avalanche Center.
Click here for the full advisory.