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Latest aviation discussion:

Complicated aviation forecast with a MVFR to IFR layer of low
clouds impacting the far southeast terminals this morning, dense
fog possible at KELM through daybreak, then convection by midday
most terminals. 

Through daybreak, MVFR cigs at KAVP and MVFR to IFR cigs at KBGM
will continue. Some of these lower cigs may reach KRME but
confidence a bit lower here so I included just a TEMPO group. Fog
likely at KELM but it could be quite variable the next few hours,
bouncing from low end IFR to VFR. With a good shot at remaining
clear here however and fog already forming, below airport mins are
possible after 08Z. A return to VFR all terminals expectec between
12Z and 14Z.

Convection this afternoon occurs around 18Z, roughly along I-81
from near Binghamton and then moves south and east through 22Z.
With this scenario, highest confidence in thunderstorms will be at
KAVP, then KBGM. From KELM to KITH and KRME confidence much lower
as storms will fire near but perhaps just, just east of these
terminals. Here I went with smaller shorter TEMPO groups with the
duration expected to be over a smaller window. Drier weather by



Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.


This discussion and more can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion.

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