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Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook

Product Suite Last Updated: Sunday August 20, 2017 10:08 AM

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24 Hr. Hazards
Day 1
Tornado






Hail






Thunderstorm Wind Gust






Severe Thunderstorms




Lightning
Flooding




Fire Weather
Fog
Non Thunderstorm Winds
Excessive Heat
Snow & Sleet




Ice Accumulation




Frost & Freeze
Excessive Cold
Aviation






Severe Thunderstorm Arrival Tool Legend         Severe Thunderstorm Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
Later Today or Tonight
Severe thunderstorms will be possible later today or tonight .
Next 6 hours
Severe thunderstorms will be possible in the next 6 hours.
Next 3 hours
Severe thunderstorms will be possible in the next 3 hours.
The Severe Thunderstorm Arrival Tool is a resource for municipalities, counties, and SKYWARN storm spotters to plan for possible storm spotter activation on the current calendar day. Other interests can also use the Severe Thunderstorm Arrival Tool to determine the expected time frame for severe thunderstorm potential.
Tornado Risk Legend         Tornado Safety Tips
 Risk Level
Definition
None
No tornado risk.
Limited
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point:
less than 10 percent.
Elevated
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 10 percent.
Significant
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 30 percent.
Extreme
Probability of a  tornado within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 45 percent.
Hail Risk Legend         Severe Thunderstorm Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No risk of hail.
Limited
Risk of sub-severe hail (less than 1")
or
Probability of severe hail (1" or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
less than 15%
Elevated
Probability of severe hail (1" or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 15%
Significant
Probability of severe hail (1" or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 45%
Extreme
Probability of severe hail (1" or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 60%
Thunderstorm Wind Gust Risk Legend        Severe Thunderstorm Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No thunderstorm wind risk.
Limited
Risk for sub-severe wind gusts (less than 58 mph)
or
Probability of severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Less than 15%
Elevated
Probability of severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 15%
Significant
Probability of severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 45%
Extreme
Probability of severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater) within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 60%
Severe Thunderstorm Legend         Severe Thunderstorm Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition Severe Thunderstorm Risk Day 2 to 7
None
No risk of severe thunderstorms.
Limited
Risk for severe thunderstorms with the
Probability of severe thunderstorms* within 25 miles of a point:
Less than 15%
Elevated
Probability of severe thunderstorms* within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 15%
Significant
Probability of severe thunderstorms* within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 45%
Extreme
Probability of severe thunderstorms* within 25 miles of a point:
Equal to or greater than 60%
Lightning Legend        Lightning Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No lightning risk
Limited
Thunderstorms expected to be isolated to scattered in coverage. 
Atmospheric conditions support cloud to ground lightning strikes in and near thunderstorms.
Elevated
Thunderstorms expected to be numerous in coverage.
  Atmospheric conditions support cloud to ground lightning strikes in and near thunderstorms.
Significant
Widespread thunderstorms are expected.
  Atmospheric conditions support cloud to ground lightning strikes in and near thunderstorms.
Extreme
Thunderstorms are expected with nearly continuous cloud to ground lightning strikes in and near thunderstorms.
Flooding Legend         Flooding Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No Flooding risk.
Limited
Risk of localized flash flooding of small streams and low water crossings, and minor flooding of poor drainage or urban areas.
Elevated

Risk of flash flooding of several low water crossings, roads, and small streams,
or
Minor River Flooding.

Significant

Risk of flash flooding of numerous roads, low water crossings, and small streams,
or
Moderate river flooding.

Extreme
Risk of widespread flash flooding of low water crossings, roads, and small streams.
or
Major river flooding.
Fire Weather Legend         Wildfire Weather Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
Open burning is usually safe with proper containers and precautions under low fire danger conditions. 
Residents should always check on local ordinances that prohibit open burning under any conditions.
Limited
Open burning is usually safe with the proper precautions.
Burning should be done in the early morning and late evening to avoid windier and drier conditions from midday through mid-afternoon. 

Residents should always check on local ordinances that prohibit open burning under any conditions.
Elevated
Any open burning is discouraged due to increased wind and lower humidity - except by experienced fire personnel
Increasing winds and lower humidity contribute to drying fuels. Fires escape control more easily and containment is difficult for inexperienced fire personnel.
Approaching Red Flag conditions.
Significant
Open burning should not be attempted.
High winds and extended dry periods lead to extreme burning conditions. Open fires can quickly escape and are very difficult to control, even for experienced fire fighters. 
Conditions exceed minimum criteria for a Red Flag Warning in most cases.
Extreme
Very strong winds, well in excess of Red Flag Criteria combined with moderate to low humidity.
Fires will spread very quickly with spot fires common. Fire control is extremely difficult due to very strong winds.
***These definitions are geared towards the general public and general emergency management and should not be confused with the standard National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) adjectives used by wildland fire personnel.
The fire weather category for the Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook is based primarily on predicted wind, humidity and temperature, and does not account for fuel moisture from recent precipitation, snow cover and recently melted snow.  Appropriate adjustments to the fire environment must be made.
Fire weather hazard categories will normally be more restricted, generally in the "none" or "limited" categories from May 1st to September 30th due to normally predominant green and moist live vegetation.  This will be subject to change during unusual severe Spring and/or Summer drought.
Fog Legend         Fog Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No risk of fog.
Limited
Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1 mile.
Elevated
Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/2 mile
Significant
Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile.
Extreme
Fog with near zero visibilities.
Non Thunderstorm Wind Legend        Wind Safety Tips     Boating Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None

Sustained winds < 20 mph
and
Wind gusts < 30 mph.

Limited
Sustained winds 20-29 mph
or
Wind gusts 30-44 mph.
Elevated
Sustained winds 30-39 mph
or
Wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Significant
Sustained winds 40-49 mph
or
Wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Extreme
Sustained winds > 50 mph
or
Wind gusts > 65 mph.
Excessive Heat Legend         Excessive Heat Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
Maximum heat index < 80 degrees F.
Limited
Maximum heat index 80 to 89 degrees F.
Elevated

Maximum heat index 90 to 94 degrees F.

Significant

Maximum heat index 95 to 104 degrees F.

Extreme
Maximum heat index greater than or equal to 105 degrees F.
Snow and Sleet Legend         Winter Weather Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No snow or sleet.
Limited
Snow and/or sleet with less than 3 inches of accumulation expected.
Elevated
Snow and/or sleet with 3 to 6 inches of accumulation expected.
Significant
Snow and/or sleet with 6 to 18 inches of accumulation expected.
Extreme
Snow and/or sleet with greater than or equal to 18 inches of accumulation expected.
Ice Accumulation Legend         Winter Weather Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No freezing rain or drizzle.
Limited
Very light freezing rain or drizzle with up to a thin glaze, OR Freezing Fog.
Elevated
Freezing rain or drizzle with accumulation less than 1/2 inch.
Significant
Freezing rain with accumulation of 1/2 inch to less than 1 inch.
Extreme
Freezing rain with accumulation of greater than or equal to 1 inch.
Frost and Freeze Legend
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
No danger of frost or freeze causing damage to vegetation.
Limited
Patchy frost during the growing season with minor damage to unprotected vegetation.
Elevated
Frost expected during the growing season with damage to unprotected vegetation. 
This may include temperatures less than or equal to 32 degrees F for less than 3 hours.
Significant
Freeze expected (less than or equal to 32 degrees F for 3 or more hours) during the growing season with significant damage to unprotected vegetation.
Extreme
Hard freeze (less than or equal to 28 degrees F) during the growing season with catastrophic damage to unprotected vegetation.
Excessive Cold Legend         Extreme Cold Safety Tips
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
Minimum wind chill greater than or equal to 0 degrees F.
Limited
Minimum wind chill 0 to -19 degrees F.
Elevated
Minimum wind chill -20 to -29 degrees F
Significant
Minimum wind chill -30 to -39 degrees F.
Extreme
Minimum wind chill less than or equal to -40 degrees F.
Aviation Legend
 
Risk Level
Definition
None
VFR: Ceiling >= 3000 feet and Visibility >= 6SM.
Limited
MVFR: Ceiling 2000-3000 feet or Visibility 3-5SM.
Elevated

Fuel Alt MVFR: Ceiling 1000-2000 feet.

Significant

IFR: Ceiling 500-1000 feet or Visibility 2-3SM.

Extreme
VLIFR: Ceiling <=500 feet or Visibility <2SM.

The Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook is an experimental product that will be posted to this page for evaluation. We encourage your comments or suggestions for improvements using the electronic survey provided. Your feedback will help us determine product utility, if modifications are needed, and whether the product should become part of our operational suite. | Product Description Document

The Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook is a decision support service that supports preparedness and response efforts prior to and during hazardous weather.  This service provides decision makers with convenient access to potential weather hazard information by graphically depicting the risk of weather hazards out through seven days.