Drought Information for Western and North Central New York

Drought Information for Western and North Central New York
Updated October 28th, 2016

A SOAKING RAIN BRINGS DROUGHT RELIEF TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK

SYNOPSIS...

A WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAINFALL PROVIDED SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT
RELIEF TO THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVED AT LEAST TWO INCHES
OF RAIN BETWEEN OCTOBER 20TH AND THE 22ND...WITH PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION GETTING 5
INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL. THE STEADY AND PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION MAXIMIZED ITS BENEFIT TO IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

THIS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...ELIMINATING THE AREA OF EXTREME DROUGHT WHICH WAS SHOWN BY
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY. DESPITE THE
IMPROVEMENT...THE DROUGHT IS NOT OVER WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL REMAINING IN SOME AREAS.

THE IMPACT OF THE DROUGHT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL IMPROVING SHORT TERM FACTORS SUCH AS SOIL
MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOW. THE MAIN ISSUE REMAINING IS GROUNDWATER
LEVELS...WHICH REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
SINCE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND WATER SYSTEMS VARY BY LOCATION...
MOST WATER MANAGEMENT DECISIONS ARE MADE BY STATE AND LOCAL
GOVERNING OFFICIALS.

THE LATEST PRESS RELEASE FROM THE NEW YORK STATE DROUGHT
MANAGEMENT TASK FORCE IS AVAILABLE AT THE LINK BELOW:

HTTP://WWW.DEC.NY.GOV/LANDS/5017.HTML

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.

THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ON
OCTOBER 22ND INDICATED WET SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN OCTOBER 20TH AND 22ND.

GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS.

THE USGS GROUND WATER LEVEL NETWORK SHOWS NUMEROUS WELLS IN THE
DRIEST 10TH PERCENTILE WHICH IS CLASSIFIED AS MUCH BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN GENERAL THE DRIEST CONDITIONS EXTEND ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GROUND WATER LEVELS HAVE STARTED TO
RESPOND TO RECENT RAINFALL...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN
THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH LEVELS HAVE LEVELED OFF...SEVERAL WELLS
IN HARDEST HIT AREAS ARE AT RECORD LOW LEVELS. GROUNDWATER LEVELS
ARE TYPICALLY LOWEST DURING FALL OR EARLY WINTER. SOME SHALLOWER
WELLS HAVE RUN DRY IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS.

RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS.

FLOWS ON STREAMS AND RIVERS VARY BY LOCATION. IN ORDER TO SMOOTH
OUT TEMPORARY RISES FROM RAINFALL...THE MEAN FLOW FOR A TWO-WEEK
PERIOD IS OFTEN USED TO ASSESS DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE FOLLOWING
TABLE SHOWS THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW IN CUBIC FEET PER SECOND
ENDING ON OCTOBER 27TH.

SITE                             FLOW (CFS)   % OF NORMAL  PERCENTILE
TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS        98           47             47
ELLICOTT CREEK AT WILLIAMSVILLE  76           74             51
CAYUGA CREEK AT LANCASTER        62           79             57
BUFFALO CREEK AT GARDENVILLE     114          106            63
CAZENOVIA CREEK AT EBENEZER      154          109            64
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA     630          142            78
ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA     3522         243            90
BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE       21           45             42
OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT           35           41             37
GENESEE RIVER AT AVON            2097         175            81
BLACK RIVER AT WATERTOWN         6088         176            88

THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT MOST STREAMS AND CREEKS TO AT
LEAST NEAR NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MANY AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

AGRICULTURE IMPACTS.

THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED.

FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.

SHORT TERM DROUGHT FACTORS SUCH AS SOIL MOISTURE ARE NEAR OR MORE
MOIST THAN NORMAL. THERE IS NO IMPACT ON FIRE DANGER AT THIS TIME.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO LOOK AT THE SEVERITY OF A DROUGHT. OVER
THE PAST SIX MONTHS PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED BETWEEN 80 TO 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NIAGARA AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

PRECIPITATION MARCH 1ST THROUGH OCTOBER 28TH...
LOCATION      ACTUAL     NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT OF NORMAL
BUFFALO       21.14      26.58      -5.44         80
ROCHESTER     19.81      24.08      -4.27         82
WATERTOWN     21.06      23.96      -2.90         88

IT TAKES A LONG TIME FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...AND IT
TYPICALLY TAKES A LONG TIME TO END. PRECIPITATION DEFICITS SHOW
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IT WOULD TAKE...IN ADDITION TO THE NORMAL
AMOUNT...IN ORDER FOR SEASONAL TOTALS TO REACH NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION DEFICITS BY REGION SINCE MARCH 1ST...

NIAGARA REGION...4 TO 7 INCHES.
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...NEAR NORMAL.
GENESEE RIVER BASIN...2 TO 5 INCHES.
WESTERN FINGER LAKES...4 TO 7 INCHES.
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...2 TO 4 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
DURING THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN
IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY RESULT IN SOME
EVAPORATION...OTHERWISE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT DRYING.

AFTER THIS...A RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH MID-NOVEMBER. THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THIS WILL HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON THE DROUGHT...SINCE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN SUMMERTIME WHICH WILL LIMIT EVAPORATION.
HOWEVER...ONCE THIS PATTERN ARRIVES THIS WILL LIMIT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR IMPROVEMENT.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

GROUNDWATER AND LAKE LEVELS TEND TO LAG OTHER DROUGHT INDICATORS.
AS A RESULT...GROUNDWATER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE DURING THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO AS LEVELS RESPOND TO THE RECENT RAINFALL. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A MODEST IMPROVEMENT...EVEN WITHOUT MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

THIS IS A CRITICAL PERIOD BECAUSE ONCE WINTER SETTLES IN AND THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IS FROZEN...GROUNDWATER LEVELS TEND TO
LOCK IN AND REMAIN STABLE UNTIL SPRING.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON OR AROUND NOVEMBER 14TH OR SOONER
IF THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
NORTHEAST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.NRCC.CORNELL.EDU
NEW YORK STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...HTTP://NYSC.EAS.CORNELL.EDU

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
587 AERO DRIVE
CHEEKTOWAGA NY 14225
PHONE...716-565-0204
BUF.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$