WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
357 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE...
THIS IS THE SECOND WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR
2014...ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU, MAINE.
THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST MAINE FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD FROM JANUARY 23 TO FEBRUARY
6, 2014.
THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR ALL OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL,
AND DOWNEAST MAINE IS BELOW NORMAL. LIKEWISE, THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL.
...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...
THE WILD TEMPERATURE SWINGS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ALTHOUGH EARLY JANUARY WAS VERY COLD, THE WEATHER PATTERN QUICKLY
TURNED TO A MILD AND RAINY ONE. MUCH OF MID JANUARY WAS WARMER
THAN NORMAL WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS. MORE RECENTLY,
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BROUGHT ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST TO THE REGION
EARLIER THIS WEEK. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL USHER BITTERLY COLD AIR
INTO MAINE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THESE COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AND BRING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE LOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS EXPECTED. THIS THINKING MATCHES WITH THE OFFICIAL WEATHER
SERVICE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. LONGER-RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL LATER IN THE PERIOD AS
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO CANADA.
...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...
THE RECENT WARM SPELL PLAYED HAVOC WITH MAINE`S SNOWPACK. SNOW
DEPTHS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
NORMAL. AFTER A BIT OF SNOW YESTERDAY, COASTAL AREAS ARE REPORTING
AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND, WHILE INTERIOR DOWNEAST
REPORTS 4 TO 8 INCHES. THESE NUMBERS INCREASE AS YOU RISE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE UP INTO AROOSTOOK COUNTY; SNOW
DEPTHS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES IS THE NORM HERE. THE SNOWPACK DEEPENS TO
15 TO 20 INCHES AS YOU ENTER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. SOME SPOTS IN
THE BIG WOODS OF THE FAR NORTHWEST HAVE AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND.
THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE), OR THE AMOUNT OF WATER CONTAINED
IN THE SNOWPACK, IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS. DOWNEAST
MAINE GENERALLY HAS AN INCH OR LESS IN THEIR SNOWPACK. NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MAINE HAS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT, WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY.
...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...
THE RECENT WARM WEATHER PATTERN RESULTED IN SNOW MELT AND RAIN,
ALLOWING SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN WET ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX INDICATED MOIST TO VERY
MOST CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GROUNDWATER LEVELS
AROUND THE STATE REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...
RIVER FLOWS HAVE BEEN RUNNING HIGH DUE TO RUNOFF CREATED BY
SNOWMELT AND RAIN. THESE INCREASED FLOWS RESULTED IN ICE BREAK UP
ALONG SOME OF OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RIVERS. MINOR ICE JAMS WERE
REPORTED ON THE NARRAGUAGUS RIVER IN CHERRYFIELD AND THE
MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER IN MATTAWAMKEAG. BOTH OF THESE JAMS WERE
FLUSHED DOWNSTREAM AFTER BRIEFLY SITTING IN PLACE. THE
MATTAWAMKEAG JAM LATER FETCHED UP ALONG SOME ISLANDS IN THE
PENOBSCOT RIVER NEAR WINN. A VERY LARGE JAM DEVELOPED ALONG THE
PISCATAQUIS RIVER WHEN ICE BROKE UP NEAR MEDFORD AND MOVED
DOWNSTREAM TO THE MAXFIELD-HOWLAND LINE. THIS JAM IS NEARLY 1
MILE LONG AND DID RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG LOCAL ROADS.
IN ADDITION, ICE BROKE UP ALONG KENDUSKEAG STREAM IN DOWNTOWN
BANGOR, THREATENING THE LOW-LYING PARKING LOTS AND PEDESTRIAN
BRIDGES IN THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A MINOR JAM ALONG THE EAST
BRANCH OF THE PENOBSCOT RIVER NEAR GRINDSTONE. THESE JAMS REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. RIVER FLOWS HAVE RECEDED SINCE THE COLD DRY
WEATHER HAS RESUMED AND SNOWMELT ENDED. THE BITTER COLD HAS ALSO
ALLOWED THE OPEN SPOTS TO BEGIN TO REFREEZE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THESE JAMS WILL FREEZE IN PLACE AND REMAIN SO UNTIL SPRING BREAK
UP OCCURS.
THE NORTHERN RIVERS, INCLUDING THE AROOSTOOK AND SAINT JOHN, STILL
HAVE SOLID ICE COVER FOR MUCH OF THEIR LENGTHS. THERE WAS A BIT OF
ICE BREAK UP IN SOME PLACES OWING TO INCREASED FLOWS, BUT THIS WAS
VERY MINOR AND NO JAMS WERE NOTED. THE ICE COVER WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AS THE COLD AIR LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION.
...IN CONCLUSION...
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INFORMATION, THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST MAINE. ALTHOUGH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE WET, SNOW
DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD OVER THE NEXT 7
TO 10 DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH
ICE JAMS EXIST ALONG THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,
INCLUDING THE EAST BRANCH, AND KENDUSKEAG STREAM, THESE JAMS ARE
SETTLING IN PLACE AS WATERS RECEDE. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONLY LOCK
THESE JAMS TIGHTER IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH FREEZE UP JAMS MAY OCCUR AS
OPEN AREAS RE-FREEZE, THE POTENTIAL IS LOW. FURTHER NORTH, THE
ICE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ON THE SAINT JOHN, AROOSTOOK, AND ALLAGASH
WATERWAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
NWS CARIBOU ON THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2014.