Winter Weather Outlook Released

The winter weather outlook recently released by the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for above-average temperatures in Alaska, much of the West, and the northern and central Great Plains.

Below average temperatures are expected across the Gulf Coast states, the Southeast, and the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. There are equal chances of warmer, cooler, or near-normal temperatures this winter in the Northeast, Midwest, and parts of Southwest.

The precipitation outlook calls for wetter-than-average conditions in parts of California, the extreme Southwest, and across the Southern U.S. (from Texas to Florida). Drier-than-average conditions are expected in the Midwest, northern Plains, and Pacific Northwest.

The winter outlook indicates some improvement in drought conditions in the West, but long-term drought is expected to persist through the winter in many areas.

This is the first time the new Climate Forecast System is being used as a tool for this outlook. The Climate Forecast System is a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, which complements other NOAA models and gives increased confidence of probable climate events before they happen.

The winter outlook reflects a blend of impacts associated with weak-to-moderate El Niño events in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and is based on the likelihood that these conditions will persist through early 2005. El Niño influences the winter weather patterns by affecting the jet stream and the track storms take across the eastern Pacific and North America. This El Niño isn't expected to reach the strength of the 1997-1998 El Niño event.

The next winter outlook update is scheduled for October 21, 2004.

Read the full NOAA news story here.

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Radar Operations Center Adds New Pedestal Test Capability

The ROC provides centralized meteorological, software, maintenance, and engineering support for all NEXRAD radars in the United States and its territories, selected overseas United States military bases, and two foreign-owned systems. NEXRAD systems are modified and enhanced during their operational life to meet changing requirements, to add technology advances, and to improve the use of these systems for real-time weather operations. To meet this requirement, the ROC has a NEXRAD test bed to develop hardware and software improvements.

The pedestal test capability gives ROC engineers the ability to work on time-consuming improvements to pedestal mechanical and electronics components without using the existing test bed pedestal and antenna.

"The existing pedestal and antenna are constantly needed to support other radar development and testing, leaving little time for pedestal engineering development and testing," said Richard J. Vogt, ROC Director. Future pedestal developments include improvements to various pedestal electronics and engineering to convert NEXRAD radars to dual polarization operation to better detect rainfall, hail, ice, and snow.

In addition to providing a new engineering test bed, Vogt said the pedestal test capability serves as a perfect training asset for ROC technicians.

"Major pedestal failures at operating radars are rare, but they require rapid reaction by ROC technicians to make on-site repairs," Vogt said. "The repair process is complicated, dangerous, and time consuming."

For example, changing the main gear, or "bull" gear, on the radar pedestal involves assembling a complicated structure on the top of the radar tower to jack up several tons of pedestal and antenna to remove and replace the gear. Vogt said ROC technicians performed this procedure last winter on NEXRAD radar in Korea. ROC technicians will practice major repair procedures on the new pedestal test system to maintain top proficiency on difficult repair tasks. The result, said Vogt, will be faster, safer field repairs.

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Mother of All Waves?

A huge wave generated by Hurricane Ivan registered a 16.0 meter significant wave height at 6:50 p.m. Central Daylight Savings Time on September 15, 2004.

Buoy station 42040 measured the wave during the approach of Hurricane Ivan. Station 42040 is located 70 miles south of the entrance to Mobile Bay, AL.

According to Dave Gilhousen at the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), the 16-meter wave appears to be the highest wave height ever reported by NDBC in a hurricane and comes within a few tenths of a meter of NDBC's all-time record reported in the North Pacific.

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NWS Southern Region Managers Honored With NOAA Distinguished Career Awards

McLaughlin launched his career as a student trainee for the old U.S. Weather Bureau, in the early 1960s, before serving as a U.S. Army Signal Corps Meteorological Officer in Vietnam and at White Sands Missile Range. He holds various military decorations including the Bronze Star. Following his tour of duty, McLaughlin became a charter member of the new NOAA National Weather Service in 1970. Advancing quickly to positions of increasing responsibility, he served as Warning Preparedness Meteorologist in New Orleans; Deputy Meteorologist-In-Charge in Jackson, MS, and San Antonio, TX; Assistant Chief of Meteorological Services for the NWS Southern Region; and, Chief of Meteorological Services in the Central Region. In 1984, he returned to Southern Region Headquarters to serve as Chief of Meteorological Services, Chief Program Officer, and in his current position as Deputy Director for Performance and Resources.

Grayson has served as Researcher, Forecaster, Field Office Supervisor, Program Manager, and Senior Manager. He helped develop numerical guidance models used by all NWS field forecast offices for critical storm warnings and forecasts; implemented development projects and comprehensive training programs that contributed significantly to staff's scientific training and professional advancement; implemented the computer-based Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) into nationwide field operations; played a critical role in modernization and restructuring Southern Region field offices with specific responsibility for integration of NEXRAD, the Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) and the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS); and, led a national project to design and implement a unified NWS approach to display all NEXRAD radar data on the Internet, earning him and his team a Department of Commerce Silver Medal.

Prior to joining the NWS, Grayson served as an officer in the U.S. Navy and as a Civilian Research Meteorologist at the Navy's Fleet Numerical Weather Prediction Facility and continued his military service as an Oceanographer/Meteorologist in the U.S. Naval Reserve until he retired with the rank of Captain in 1991. He began his NWS career as a Research Meteorologist with the Techniques Development Laboratory at NWS Headquarters in 1971. He also served as Deputy Meteorologist-In-Charge at forecast offices in Reno, NV, and Ann Arbor, MI; Chief of Scientific Services Division, Central Region; Deputy Regional Director, Southern Region; and, Regional Director, Western Region. While he proved to be an effective administrator, Grayson preferred to focus his career on the rapidly developing disciplines of computers and information technology and elected to return to the Southern Region to oversee the newly created Systems Operations Division.

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Also On the Web...CIO Profile and Urban Weather

• NWS Chief Information Officer Paul Chan was profiled in the September 27, 2004, issue of Federal Computer Week. Take a look at the article on the magazine's web site by clicking here. Also, the same issue of Federal Computer Week contained an editorial praising NOAA's web efforts during the recent hurricanes. The editorial was titled "Doing It Right." Check it out by clicking here.
• This month's issue of NOAA Magazine includes an article on NOAA's work in urban meteorology, and how this research has "helped reveal how weather and climate interact with the natural, built, and societal features of urban environments." Read NOAA Magazine here.

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NWS Snapshots

Click here for a look at photos we've received from around the NWS.

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