Editors' Note: Seasons Greetings

NOAA's NWS Focus will not publish December 29, 2003. Look for the next issue on January 5, 2004. Happy Holidays!

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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Process Reflects New Operations Philosophy

To ensure Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) make the most effective use of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) output from the NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) to populate the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD), the NWS Corporate Board has established a QPF process to help WFOs reduce their workloads and focus forecaster efforts on hazardous and high impact events.

Earlier this year, the NWS Corporate Board clarified how things should work under the new NWS Operations Philosophy, as described in an earlier NOAA's NWS Focus article.

One of the first examples of applying the Operations Philosophy to the forecast process is how the NWS populates the QPF element in the NDFD. The HPC generates and maintains QPFs in collaboration with the WFOs and River Forecast Centers (RFCs). The WFOs and RFCs can adjust the HPC QPF as needed through collaborative processes for input to the NDFD and NWS River Forecast System, respectively. More information on the NDFD collaborative process can be found at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ndfd/collaboration.htm.

"Weather Forecast Offices can choose to accept the HPC QPF or adjust for the final NDFD output," said Greg Mandt, Chairman of the NWS Corporate Board's Operations Committee, and Director, Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services (OCWWS). "For instance, when the office priority is severe weather and all talent is focused on urgent tasks, the WFO may choose to accept the HPC QPF without adjustments. We are further empowering our WFOs to make these important decisions."

The NWS has already begun steps to enhance the collaboration process, said Lynn Maximuk, Meteorologist-In-Charge of the Pleasant Hill, MO, WFO. During the past several months the HPC has collaborated with field offices using the nationally-deployed collaboration chat software. This is in addition to traditional collaboration and coordination methods by telephone, used by NCEP, RFCs, and WFOs.

"Effective collaboration will lead to consistent quantitative precipitation forecasts across all programs and services in the NWS," Maximuk said. "This will maximize use of expertise at all levels to provide the best NWS information possible."

An early exchange of ideas and model diagnostics between the WFO and HPC forecasters has already yielded dividends, according to Ed Danaher, HPC's Development and Training Branch Chief. Danaher has worked closely with the field offices, regional headquarters, other NCEP service centers, and NWS Headquarters to forge the new operational collaborative paradigm for the IFPS/NDFD era.

Danaher said HPC often adjusts its guidance based on input from field office forecasters. Since this collaboration takes place before the national products are issued, the end result is customers receive consistent, higher-quality river forecasts and forecast information provided through the NDFD and other means. The collaboration on QPFs is an integral part of the grid preparation process at the WFOs as they prepare their input to the NDFD.

"Field forecasters have already noticed a renewed spirit of teamwork with HPC in developing a high resolution QPF that provides the best the NWS has to offer," Maximuk added.

While collaboration has led to more coherent, higher resolution QPFs, Mandt said more remains to be done.

Expanding collaboration efforts between the WFOs and RFCs are next on the horizon as the playing field has shifted from days past when WFOs issued primarily text forecasts. Inter-WFO collaboration and the development of graphical forecast editors to prepare high-resolution forecast grids have led to more consistent forecasts across WFO boundaries which previously had caused problems in QPFs that RFCs used in the river forecast models.

There are also challenges in maximizing collaboration between the WFOs, RFCs, and HPC since each of their workstations and tools are not exactly the same. Also, the "domains" covered by the QPFs are different. For instance, Maximuk said, a domain or geographic area on a WFO workstation is limited to a state or two and portions of other states. RFCs cover perhaps 15 to 25 WFO domains, and HPC covers the conterminous United States.

Mandt added that a new NWS Instruction 10-506, Digital Data Products/Services Specification, is due out this winter. The 10-506 instruction will provide a framework for products and services generated from the digital forecast database prepared by the NWS. The instruction also will describe the basic digital data infrastructure including the NDFD, locally prepared digital forecast databases, and associated NWS collaboration to enable the production of a seamless suite of digital forecast data, including QPF.

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Two leading scientists from the Hydrometeorological Agency of Vietnam are spending four months at NWS's Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) in Peachtree City, GA.

During their stay, the visiting scientists are working with SERFC staff to develop a flood prediction system for the Red River in Northern Vietnam.

Visiting scientists Huynh Thi Lan Huong and Nguyen Tien Kien are participating in a program between the United States and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam to strengthen Vietnamese capabilities for forecasting and mitigating the effects of floods in the Red River basin. Water is the most destructive force in the Red River basin and mitigating the effects of floods is one of the highest priorities of the government of Vietnam.

According to John Feldt, Hydrologist-In-Charge, the Peachtree City office was chosen because the weather across the southeast U.S. closely resembles the weather in Vietnam. "Our objective is to provide our visitors from Vietnam the tools and techniques they can use to easily implement a flood prediction and warning system upon their return to Vietnam," Feldt said.

Reggina Cabrera Garza, Senior Hydrologist, is leading the effort and is working closely with the visiting scientists. She has accompanied the scientists on a variety of field trips, including a visit to the Northwest Florida Panhandle where they visited with the Suwanee River Water Management District and WFO Tallahassee.

Cabrera Garza has past experience in this area, having participated in the development of flood prediction and warning capability in Nicaragua.

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NWS Salutes Ham Radio Partners

On December 6, 2003, NWS forecast offices across the Nation observed the Fifth Annual Skywarn Appreciation Day. The event celebrates the contributions that volunteer Skywarn radio operators make to the NWS.

After being trained in storm spotting by local offices, Skywarn amateur (ham) radio operators routinely provide severe weather reports to the NWS.

During the 24-hour marathon Skywarn Appreciation Day exercise, NWS offices and amateur radio operators attempt to make as many radio contacts as possible. The goal of the event is to strengthen the bond between local forecast offices and area amateur radio operators.

Originally organized by Meteorologist-In-Charge Scott Mentzer at the Goodland, KS, Weather Forecast Office (WFO), the 24-hour exercise is co-sponsored annually by the Amateur Radio Relay League.

"As always, our goal is to make as many contacts as possible between National Weather Service offices and ham radio operators in this 24-hour period," Mentzer said. "The number of hams and participating Weather Service offices has increased each year since we started in 1999."

Mentzer noted that amateur radio operators are a key component to the Weather Service's severe weather operations, working alongside forecasters to collect and spread information about severe weather to people in its path. Ham operators help gather ground reports of storm damage, relay storm reports to forecasters, and help emergency management agencies track tornadoes. At times, ham operators provide the only communications link to stricken areas.

According to Mentzer, 114 Weather Service offices participated in the 2003 event, including regional and national centers. He said contact numbers were still being totaled, but more than 2,000 amateur radio operators are thought to have participated. Radio contacts were made in the United States, Canada, Brazil, the Cayman Islands, Austria, Guyana, and Sweden.

"It could not have happened without each of the local NWS offices and the associated Skywarn operators," Mentzer said. "Everything worked reasonably well. A few offices did not make it on the air due to the nor'easter that impacted the mid-Atlantic states. The flu also took its toll on a few offices. Overall, though, most offices got on the air and had a good time. Many offices also invited the media into their offices to cover the event!"

WFO Fairbanks, AK, participants contacted a ham operator in Hawaii. Fairbanks temperature was at 23 below zero in ice fog while Hawaii basked in sunshine and a temperature of 83 degrees; a difference of a mere 106 degrees.

At least one television station covered activities at WFO Fort Worth, TX.

At WFO Reno, NV, the most senior and junior Skywarn members participated in their third recognition day. Frank Nance, who celebrated his 78th birthday during Skywarn Recognition Day, has been a ham radio operator for 62 years. Jordan Anise, a sophomore at McQueen High School in Reno, has participated in amateur radio operator programs since he was 13. Photos of Reno's Skywarn Recognition Day activities are available here.

Photos from some of the other participating office have been posted at http://hamradio.noaa.gov/2003photos.htm.

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NOAA Exhibits at National Science Teachers Association Annual Meetings in Kansas City and Reno

NOAA participated in two recent National Science Teachers Association (NSTA) Regional Annual Meetings in Kansas City, MO, on November 13-15, 2003, and in Reno, NV, on December 4-6, 2003. NOAA's representatives provided free materials to more than 2,000 teachers and education administrators in Kansas City and 2,100 attendees in Reno.

Staff from local Weather Forecast Offices in Reno and Kansas City as well as Central and Western Region Offices of Public and Constituent Affairs and the NOAA Office of Education and Sustainable Development shared exhibit responsibilities and provided various free materials while also answering educators' questions. Educators were greatly interested in how NOAA materials could be used to help develop curriculum in teaching students about weather, oceans, and atmospheric sciences.

Among items generating greatest interest were the interactive cd-rom Exercises in Meteorology for high school students, the Billy and Maria weather education series for K-2 students, the NOAA education web page, and updated cloud charts. There was also considerable interest, even in landlocked Kansas City and Reno, about the NOAA Teacher at Sea Program.

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Have a Question for Director's Dialog?

Director's Dialog is a column in NOAA's NWS Focus where NWS leadership answers an employee question. The ground rules are as follows: all questions must be submitted to NWS.Focus@noaa.gov and include the sender's name and office. Questions should have organizational-wide implications. This column will not address personal questions relating to benefits, pay, supervision, or labor/management disputes. The Deputy Director will read all questions, but may not be able to answer all questions due to time and space constraints.

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Also On the Web...2003 Weather and Climate Events Summarized

NOAA's National Climatic Data Center recently released a summary of significant 2003 weather and climate events. Read the NOAA news story here.

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