Director's Dialog:
Use of Non-NOAA Observations in NWS Operations

Director Kelly,

Over the past year, the partnership between the NWS and AWS has been discussed locally. This partnership will include the AWS data sets into the modeling process, should a homeland security incident or disaster take place. I understand and accept the importance of this partnership.

Additionally, I recognize the need for data in the modeling process, however I have concerns over the standardization, maintenance, and placement of these weather data systems.

Given that there are numerous Automated Weather Observation Systems (AWOS) and Next Generation AWOS (NexWOS) systems sited at airports across the U.S., is it possible to have these systems incorporated into the Homeland Security envelope? The AWOS sites are often placed in better locations, meeting exacting standards of the FAA and airport advisory boards. Additionally, these are often located in more rural areas, resulting in a better representation of the 'general' atmospheric conditions.

In addition to the AWOS sites, there are numerous Roadside Weather Information Systems (RWIS) and remote fire weather sites throughout the country. Although not to the exacting standards of the AWOS sites, these certainly have as much value as the AWS systems and would provide a significant source of data for the daily decision, forecast, and modeling process.

Eventually, will AWOS, RWIS, RAWS, and other automated data systems be included in the Homeland Security partnership?

– Michael Lewis, Science and Operations Officer, WFO Jackson, KY

Thanks for your question.

Improved surface observation density, accuracy, timeliness, and more measured parameters will improve NWS forecast accuracy. Leveraging non-NOAA observational systems and networks should enhance our ability to sustain the high level of quality service we deliver to the Nation at a reasonable cost.

Some complementary observation sources have quality issues. We must employ quality control procedures for filtering acquisition, use, dissemination, and transmission of questionable data. The Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services is developing and coordinating NWS policy on using non-NOAA observations. Directive 10-1309 "Complementary Data Sources and Networks" will address the use and acceptance of data from non-Federal and other networks such as RWIS. Data not meeting NWS standards will be used as supplemental observations if they have operational value. We expect the directive to be released this summer.

The 21^st Century COOP (COOP-Modernization) Program will be a foundation of the integrated surface observing network used by the NWS to support its services and other national needs such as Homeland Security. As part of this program NWS will monitor the accuracy and availability of stations to ensure standard compliance. Ken Crawford, former NWS employee and current Senior Visiting Scientist at the NWS Office of Science and Technology is part of the COOP design team incorporating high data standards to evaluate the suitability of using non-NOAA surface stations as part of the modernized COOP network.

– Jack Kelly, NWS Director

NWS Demonstrates Next-Generation Forecast Process

NWS begins a one-month Operational Readiness Demonstration (ORD) of the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) today.

During the ORD, NWS forecast offices in the continental United States (CONUS) will compose and transmit digital forecast grids to the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). A similar ORD will occur in Alaska and Hawaii next year.

The IFPS represents a monumental transition for NWS from text-based forecasts to a digital forecast database. Instead of manually typing forecast products, forecasters will now rely on interactive interpretation and editing techniques to prepare forecasts of weather elements in a common digital database from which forecast products are automatically composed and formatted. High-resolution digital forecasts used to create products locally at all Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) are then combined into the NDFD.

The CONUS regions have operated in the new paradigm in an experimental mode for some time; the ORD will be an organized test to determine whether those regions are ready for IFPS Initial Operating Capability (IOC) by September 30, 2003. All aspects of the new operational paradigm will be tested, including NCEP providing necessary guidance, coordination between the WFOs and NCEP, composition by software of 10 base text products from the local digital databases and the quality of those text products, transmission of the grids to the NDFD, successful mosaicing of those grids and provision of them to partners and customers, and service backup.

"This initial capability truly moves the NWS into the digital area," said Bob Glahn, IFPS Program Manager. "In the coming months, IFPS and NDFD will be improved in many ways based on the results of this initial capability. The NDFD will be augmented to include probability forecasts and support for aviation, which are not supported in the initial capability. An IFPS Science Steering Team has been created whose membership is Science and Operations Officers from each region; this team will help to guide future IFPS efforts."

Forecasts in the NDFD will be made available to all customers and partners - public and private - and will allow those customers and partners to create a wide range of text, graphic, and image products of their own from one central source. Some experimental NDFD forecasts will be downloadable from the NWS Telecommunications Gateway beginning today. Those include: maximum temperature, minimum temperature, temperature, dewpoint temperature, sky cover, winds, precipitation probability, precipitation amount, snow amount, weather type, and wave height. Many more forecast elements are planned for the NDFD during the coming years.

All CONUS forecast offices and regional headquarters staff are heavily involved, as well as NWS headquarters staff, Glahn said. Each region has an IFPS Project Manager who is responsible for his region's IFPS involvement and carrying out the readiness test as detailed in the ORD test plan. Project managers will coordinate with the IFPS ORD Integrated Work Team (IWT), that has representation from all regions and prepared the test plan. Project managers will be soliciting and accepting information and reports from all WFOs in their regions.

At the end of the ORD, the project managers, the ORD IWT, and NWS headquarters staff will report on the results of the test. Glahn said the team will address all aspects of IFPS operations that must improve before the September implementation. Holding the ORD several weeks before IOC will allow time to correct major deficiencies.

"September 30, 2003, is the date that was set for IFPS IOC a couple of years ago," said Glahn. "Indications are that NWS will achieve that milestone."

First Experimental Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook Released

The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued the first experimental hurricane season outlook for the Eastern Pacific Hurricane region on June 11, 2003. The Eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the tropical Pacific east of 140 degrees West Longitude, and the hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30 each year.

The hurricane outlook states a 50 percent probability of a below-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season for hurricane activity in 2003. The outlook calls for 11-15 tropical storms (normal is 15), with 6-9 becoming hurricanes (normal is 9), and 2-5 becoming major hurricanes (normal is 4-5).

"NOAA's Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook is important to people in the Southwest and parts of Mexico because a suppressed eastern Pacific hurricane season reduces the likelihood of rain from these systems, especially in Baja California, Arizona, California, and New Mexico," said CPC Director Jim Laver.

The outlook is a product of a joint effort between CPC, the National Hurricane Center, and the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Hurricane Research Division.

See the CPC outlook here.

Alaska Employees Provide Local Community Support

Employees of the National Weather Service Alaska Region assisted with some local community cleanup activities this spring.

The Weather Forecast Office in Juneau participated in Juneau's annual "City-Wide Litter Free Day." The NWS office picked up trash along the mile long stretch of Mendenhall Loop Road which they maintain under Alaska's Adopt-A-Highway program. Mendenhall Loop Road is near the office and used by thousands of people annually to reach the popular Mendenhall Glacier Visitor's Center.

Juneau's Meteorologist-In-Charge, Tom Ainsworth, said that the staff values a clean environment and wanted to make a positive contribution to the community. "It makes us feel we are doing our part in keeping Alaska's capital city looking its best," he said.

The employees of the River Forecast Center in Anchorage adopted the Raspberry Road Trail for cleanup this year. The trail falls under the Anchorage Parks and Recreation Department program for upkeep. The employees were out in early May cleaning up the portion of the trail that they sponsor.

Tropical Prediction Center Wins Oil Industry Award

The National Weather Service's Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) has been elected to the Offshore Energy Center's (OEC's) Hall of Fame as a Technology Pioneer.

The TPC plays a vital role in keeping offshore industries informed so they can implement safety procedures, evacuate workers, and protect equipment and the environment efficiently and cost-effectively, according to the OEC, which hailed the Center's impact on industry. "TPC's contributions to the offshore industry have been outstanding."

Permanent recognition of TPC's role will be displayed on a plaque aboard the Ocean Star Offshore Rig Museum in Galveston, TX. Only one other government agency has received this award. Recognition ceremonies are scheduled for September.

The OEC of Houston, TX, is dedicated to expanding the awareness of energy resources beneath the world's oceans, and to documenting the technological accomplishments of the industry that discovers, produces, and delivers these resources in a safe and environmentally responsible way.

Forecaster and Wife Conquer Grand Canyon
By Thomas Bird
Senior Forecaster, El Paso Area Forecast Office, Santa Teresa, NM

I recall an article in NOAA's NWS Focus some time ago about a forecaster who climbed Mt. McKinley. It was an amazing story. Thomas Bird, one of our senior forecasters here in the El Paso area office, and his wife Becky also performed a remarkable feat a couple of weeks ago in Grand Canyon National Park by hiking 47 miles from the south rim across to the north rim, then back with no sleep and within 30 hours. Here is his story.
-John Fausett, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, Santa Teresa, NM

In late February we decided 2003 would be the year. We wanted to do it early enough to avoid the 100+ degree temperatures in the canyon...but not so early in the year to have to carry a lot of extra clothes for the below freezing temperatures of the North Rim. We settled on April but ended up getting pushed back to May. We also wanted a full moon for the overnight hike back. That meant May 15 was our day/night. We made plans, and began training with lots of extra cardio to increase our endurance and leg stamina. Three days before heading to the canyon we found out that the May full moon would become eclipsed early in the evening. It meant we'd have to carry headlamps for the couple of dark hours while the moon was behind the Earth's shadow.

We got to the Grand Canyon on the afternoon of May 14 and took a shuttle to visit the western parts of the South Rim, an area we'd not ventured to before. That evening we prepared our packs and got to bed early. We were up at 3:30 a.m. and boarded a shuttle to the South Rim's Yaki Point at 4:15 a.m. We began our hike at 4:40 a.m. down the South Kaibab trail.

We made good time across the canyon and ended up at the North Rim at 4:20 p.m., an 11 hour and 40 minute hike across the canyon. We spent 3 hours at the North Rim complex resting and eating to fuel up for the return hike. We dropped off the North Rim, on our return hike, at 7:30 p.m. and hiked down to a nice overlook. At the overlook we stayed nearly an hour watching the daylight fade away and the moon rise and become fully eclipsed.

We then donned our headlamps and hiked the next two hours by the light of our lamps. Around 10 p.m., the moon became illuminated enough to provide enough light that we were able to hike the rest of the night by bright moon light. We had the company of many bats fluttering around our heads the entire night.

We got back to Phantom Ranch at 3:30 a.m., feeling very tired, and increasingly sore. All that was left to do was hike the 9+ miles up to the South Rim and call it done. But that also ended up being the hardest part of the journey. Becky was dealing with a sore knee, and I had a couple of banged up toes. We each felt some measure of discomfort with each step. In addition, the constant motion and lack of sleep was fatiguing to the point that we were near exhaustion. We did the last 4.5 miles in about three hours, well below our previous pace of over two miles an hour.

We arrived back at the South Rim at 10:30 a.m. on May 16. We were wiped out at the end and went to sleep immediately upon setting up camp for the night.

Three hours after the first sliver of sleep the alarm rang and we awoke in a zombie state of consciousness. After staring into space for 10 minutes trying to muster the determination to move sore, tired muscles, we loaded the truck, packed up the bedroll, and hit the road. First stop was only minutes down the road to load up on a few cokes for the cooler and a stop at McDonald's for the ceremonial ice cream cone for Becky and an Oreo McFlurry for me. Then we were off to Phoenix to stay with friends and began our recovery and recuperation.

Our total time from start to finish was 29 hours and 50 minutes. We spent 5 hours idle, the rest hiking. We accomplished our goal and checked off another one of our "want to do's."