Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.), NWS Director, was the guest on Friday's "Ask the White House," an online interactive forum where visitors submit questions to Administration officials and friends of the White House.

Read a transcript of the session by clicking here.

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Numerical Model Output Tailor-Made for Digital Services

A new and innovative use of NCEP's "Eta" numerical weather prediction model will help meteorologists make highly-detailed graphical forecasts in support of digital services. The application is DGEX (Downscaled Global forecast system with Eta eXtension) and utilizes an extension of the Eta well beyond the current operational Eta (0 to 84 hours) to a total of eight days and provides physically consistent objective model guidance at a horizontal grid spacing of 12 km.

With the recent inception of its National Digital Forecast Database or NDFD, the NWS began providing gridded forecasts on a 5-km grid for up to a week in advance. The problem is, this forecast resolution is finer than all of the operational forecast models - especially those run to provide forecast guidance beyond day 3 - and thus requires additional detail or "downscaling." Until the arrival of DGEX, meteorologists at the WFOs had to produce these highly-detailed forecasts essentially by hand or with time-consuming grid editing tools.

DGEX addresses the downscaling problem head-on. The IFPS Science Steering Team (ISST) championed the DGEX as a short-term solution to the downscaling problem and designed it to provide the physically consistent objective model guidance needed to produce a detailed forecast.

"Day-after-day forecasters spend a lot of time drawing routine finer-scale effects from scratch, like winds blowing up or down a mountain valley," said Brad Colman, Science and Operations Officer (SOO) at the Seattle forecast office and leader of the ISST. "The coarser models just don't resolve these fine-scale effects. The DGEX isn't perfect - it has flaws like any other model - but it has high enough resolution to depict these kinds of details in a more reasonable way. It offers people a chance to at least save some time in making forecasts out at days four through seven." This efficiency allows meteorologists to give more attention to weather events occurring in the near term, including watches, warnings and advisories.

Through the efforts of Geoff DiMego and Eric Rogers at NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center, and Brent Gordon at NCEP Central Operations, tests of DGEX began last winter. Kirby Cook, Western Region Headquarters, Tim Barker, WFO Boise, ID, and Jay Smith, WFO Fairbanks, AK, then developed methods to distribute DGEX output to a handful of WFOs for evaluation in March and April.

Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, U.S. Air Force (Ret.), NWS Director, said "the efforts of these individuals and the ISST on DGEX are critical toward improving the capabilities of the NWS in the digital services era."

Dan Baumgardt, SOO at WFO La Crosse, WI, and a former member of the ISST, was glad to have his office participating in the evaluation, because it provided an early glimpse at the value of DGEX. "During the second half of March the DGEX showed a strong gradient in temperature at the surface when the northern portion of our forecast area was covered with snow and the southern portion was dry," said Baumgardt. "No other data set had that signal. This is very important information for the forecaster."

Now that the DGEX has successfully passed the evaluation, more and more WFOs will gain access to its output. DGEX is being made available across the CONUS via AWIPS OB3.3 this month and is planned for Alaska via OB4 in October 2004. Distribution of DGEX to Puerto Rico and Hawaii is planned within the next six to 12 months. Training regarding the use of DGEX in the forecast process will begin to be delivered via teletraining later this month.

More information about DGEX and the ISST can be found at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/ifps_sst/.

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Cheryl Demers and Dave Gilhousen: Improving Data Output for Maritime Communities

by Jessica Harper
NWS Communications Office/Public Affairs Intern  

National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) Data Quality Program Manager Dave Gilhousen and Information Technology Computer Specialist Cheryl Demers recently received a 2004 NOAA Administrator's Award for applying information systems technology to unite existing NOAA and non-NOAA observing capabilities. Their work has improved NOAA's marine safety and environmental assessment products and services greatly. "At the NDBC, we do our best to provide vital observations needed

"Everybody from the U.S. Coast Guard to the state and local fishing industry depends on the Buoy Center," Demers added. "We collect data that is helpful to the general public and provide it to them for their personal use."

Boaters and beach-goers are chief among these beneficiaries. As the water-loving populations recreate at rivers, lakes, beaches and bays during the summer months, they want to know that their time will be enjoyably and safely spent. The work of Demers and Gilhousen has helped to alleviate their concerns.

Along with a team of seven people, Demers and Gilhousen compiled and added more than 200,000 new, high quality atmospheric and oceanographic data in 2003 for use by NOAA in marine forecasting operations and environmental assessment.

NOAA, along with the Office of Naval Research, once funded the establishment of numerous local and regional observing networks in the U.S. Coastal waters. Because these data were so diverse and only accessible through the Internet, it was more difficult to integrate them with those of NOAA. NWS Forecast Office personnel were the first to pinpoint this dilemma. The Ocean Research Leadership Council found that including non-federal data with that from federal sources was a necessary component of the Integrated Ocean Observing System. Gilhousen and Demers decided to use existing resources and partnerships to improve this problem.

Upon noticing the need for a capability that could convert the observations into standard formats, Gilhousen created a simple software application that makes data from a wide variety of sources easily and quickly transferable to NOAA's operational data processing system. The application-which includes real-time, automated quality control and dissemination features-was distributed free to interested observation operators. Each operator could in turn set up his or her observations for entry into standardized national or international code formats.

Eric Meindl, former NDBC Chief of Project Planning and Integration lauds Gilhousen's efforts. "Dave was one of the first people to develop an automated data quality control system for weather observations that caused no time delay getting that data to forecasters," Meindl noted. "It established a real-time reliability and quality standard for automated weather stations that no one else achieved for many years."

Demers managed the development and implementation of this process. She facilitated the delivery, processing, automated quality control, and dissemination of data as well as NDBC web page modifications that were required to display the observations and create links back to the originators' web pages.

Both Gilhousen and Demers relied on existing resources to enhance the quality of these data. In so doing, they helped make observations from the regional observing systems more likely to be discovered and easily used by a more diverse set of public users.

These advancements do more than look good on paper; they actively affect the lives of average mariners. "Small sail boaters want to avoid dead calms and oil companies installing rigs need the best weather possible," Gilhousen noted. "They use our observations as a guide. It is a real blessing to be able to provide, interpret and refine historic and real-time data for them."

Data integration this delicate requires close-knit collaboration to produce the best results, something Demers and Gilhousen understand well.

"I can't say enough nice things about Dave and Cheryl," Meindl said. "Aside from being intelligent, they are very frank, honest, and cooperative."

"Cheryl comes from a strict Information Technology perspective and has a talent for paying attention to detail," Gilhousen said. "Working with her has been very enjoyable."

"Dave has immense technical expertise," Demers noted. "He's good at working one-on-one with people and rallying a group together."

As challenges rise at NDBC, Demers and Gilhousen face them gladly. They make a powerful duo-a team that aims to do good work but also cares about how their efforts benefit others. As the NDBC adjusts to changing times and technological advancements, they evolve with it. Both anticipate upcoming changes, which include more efficient buoys, observations and web site features.

"I've seen the NDBC come full circle," Gilhousen said. "It has gone from being more research-based to becoming fully operational."

"There's never a dull moment because we're constantly doing more with less," Demers noted. "Good leaders have vision. We want to make things better and focus on streamlining the process so to reduce mistakes and increase the quality of the work we do."

Aside from a shared interest in gardening, Gilhousen and Demers each work closely with summer interns who are eager to learn the ropes of the NDBC.

Gilhousen hopes to take this counsel a step farther by one day becoming an educator. "I don't want to become a technological dinosaur, who hangs on way beyond his years," he said. "I built a homemade tornado once and demonstrated it to a group of kids, which was absolute fun. I would love to co-author a book on Earth Science that really challenges young people."  

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NOAA Magazine recently ran a story about the "U.S. Seasonal Outlook," part of the NWS's suite of official weather and climate products. Issued by the Climate Prediction Center, "the outlook attempts to predict - using probabilities - whether the average temperature and precipitation will be above-, below- or near-normal over a given time period and geographic region."

According to the article, "If interpreted and used properly, long-range forecasts can greatly aid in the management of water, fires, cattle, agriculture, utilities and energy. Other industries and applications that benefit from long-term seasonal outlooks include transportation, manufacturing and retail businesses, recreation, weather derivatives/futures markets, emergency management, and the health and travel industries."

See the complete article by following this link.  

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NWS Snapshots

Click here for a look at photos we've received from around the NWS.

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