Canada, Mexico, and U.S. Participate in North American Ensemble Forecast System Ceremony

From left, the Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of the Environment; Marc-Denis Everell, Assistant Deputy Minister Meteorological Service of Canada; and Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, U.S. Navy (Ret.), Ph.D., Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator, mark the beginning of the North American Ensemble Forecast System in Ottawa.

Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, U.S. Air Force (Ret.), NWS Director, and the heads of the Canadian and Mexican Meteorological Services recently signed ceremonial documents at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Camp Springs, MD, to demonstrate support for a new system designed to improve forecasts for North America.

The signing ceremony kicked -off a three-day workshop on the North American Forecast Ensemble System (NAEFS) led by NAEFS Project Manager for NCEP Zoltan Toth of NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center, and Jean-Guy Desmarais of the Canadian Meteorological Center of the Meteorological Service of Canada.

The NAEFS is based on conducting more than 60 model predictions per day using the Canadian and NOAA global "initial conditions" required to predict the evolution of weather systems. These initial conditions are obtained from large datasets of observations from many sources, including surface stations, aircraft, and satellites. Ensemble systems require the use of supercomputers due to the enormous number of calculations needed to produce forecasts and deliver results from forecasts on a real-time basis.

The Meteorological Service of Canada and NOAA have been working together to develop NAEFS since early 2003. The National Meteorological Service of Mexico became involved with the system in October 2004.

"By working together on a combined ensemble prediction system, we will help improve forecasts for all North Americans on all sides of all borders," said Johnson who signed the ceremonial documents with Marc Denis Everell, Assistant Deputy Minister of the Meteorological Service of Canada, and Michel Rosengaus Moshinsky, Unit Head at the National Meteorological Service of Mexico.

"The North American Ensemble Forecast System is an excellent example of work being done today in support of the global Earth Observing System. The aim is to make 21st century technology as interrelated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects, providing the science on which sound policy and decision-making must be built," said Johnson. "This more efficient use of earth observations will ultimately mean better forecasts for everyone. Ultimately, this will help protect lives, properties, and strengthen economies across the continent."

According to Louis Uccellini, NCEP Director, NAEFS is "the first formal attempt to join forces in the development of an international ensemble forecast system and its use throughout the countries of North America and beyond."

Following the NCEP ceremony, the Canadian documents were sent to Ottawa where Canada's Minister of the Environment, the Honorable Stéphane Dion, and Retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator, announced Canada and U.S. joint efforts to improve the quality of weather forecasts in border regions, at a ceremony on the outset of an international earth observations conference. The NAEFS announcement comes at an opportune moment in North American history, as President Bush was also in Canada to meet Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin.

Canada and the U.S. have also agreed to collaborate more closely on air quality forecasting and monitoring. Both countries have pledged to increase their exchanges of the measurements, data, and knowledge that support their respective air quality forecast programs. This will result in better air quality forecast information for citizens on both sides of the border, so that they can make more informed decisions to protect themselves, their families, and the environment.

NAEFS is already creating an international buzz for future cooperation. The Met Office of the United Kingdom plans to join the NAEFS system in a few years, after their own ensemble forecast system becomes operational. Zoltan Toth added that a "future 'Northern Hemisphere Ensemble System' could also serve as a prototype component for a new Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)." GIFS will be fully developed during the coming decade as part of a major international research program, THORPEX (THe Observing system Research, and Predictability EXperiment), under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization.

Click here to see photos taken at the Camp Springs ceremony.

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Surface Analysis Chart Integrates Information, Takes Less Staff Work to Produce

A new NWS system for creating an analysis chart of the surface weather for the continental U.S. and adjacent oceans is providing more consistent and accurate information.

The chart, called the NWS Unified Surface Analysis, became operational in June. The product integrates individual analysis efforts of NWS's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), Tropical Prediction Center, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, and the Honolulu Forecast Office.

According to David Feit, Chief of OPC's Ocean Forecast Branch, "integrating the analysis efforts eliminated duplication of effort and allows staffs more time to spend on other activities."

The analysis, which shows the major weather systems over an area extending westward from the west coast of Europe to the east coast of Asia and northward from the Equator, is produced every six hours. The chart is available at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml.

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Romanian Delegation Visits NWS Headquarters; Water Management is a Key Topic

A delegation of the Romanian Ministry of Water and the Environment, led by the group's Vice Minister, recently visited NWS Headquarters.

On December 6, 2004, Stadiu Florin and the Romanian delegation, while on an Eco-Links Study Tour, came to NWS to discuss a project on floods, drought and hydrometeorological modernization that builds off the Destructive Water Abatement and Control of Water Disasters (DESWAT) project.

The visit was an extension of the cooperation enjoyed between Romania and the United States. This cooperative relationship was formalized in September during a trip to Bucharest by Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, U.S. Air Force (Ret.), NWS Director, to attend the 120th Anniversary of the Meteorological Service of Romania and sign the Memorandum of Understanding between NOAA's NWS and the Ministry of Environment and Water Management of Romania.

Johnson greeted the Romanian delegation and expressed his pleasure in reciprocating the hospitality extended to him during his visit to Eastern Europe. The delegation received a briefing by Curtis Barrett, Project Manager with NWS Office of International Activities, on NWS organization, the use of hydrologic forecast and data in water management and NWS support to the DESWAT project. After the briefing the participants discussed programmatic information.

Barrett said "The Government of Romania conducted an exhaustive inventory of flood forecasting technology and came to the conclusion that the National Weather Service River Forecast System is the best flood forecasting technology available today. NWS is teaming with Lockheed Martin and Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems to implement NWS technology over the next three years."

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Max Mayfield Presented with Emmy Award

Max Mayfield, director of NWS's National Hurricane Center, has been honored by the National Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (NATAS) as this year's recipient of the Governor's Award for his devotion to television audiences during the record-setting 2004 hurricane season.

Mayfield was presented with an Emmy statuette by the Suncoast chapter of the NATAS during a ceremony held December 11, 2004, in Miami, FL.

"This award is truly for the entire staff of the National Hurricane Center and the NOAA team," said Mayfield. "Countless lives are saved during each hurricane season because of the talent and dedication of these men and women."

Read the NOAA press release on the award by clicking here.

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Fall Edition of Aviation Staff Newsletter Released

The fall edition of Weather to Fly, a newsletter for NWS staff interested in Aviation forecasting, was released on November 30, 2004.

The current edition features the following articles:

• WFO Medford, OR, Tries New Aviation Outreach Option
• Writing Effective Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)
• Improving Aviation Verification Statistics by Reducing False Alarms

To be added to the e-mail notification list when the next edition is published, write to melody.magnus@noaa.gov.

To download this edition and past editions, go to http://www.weather.gov/os/aviation/wtf.shtml.

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NWS Snapshots

Click here for a look at photos we've received from around the NWS.

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