000 FXUS65 KABQ 121632 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1032 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2008 .UPDATE... ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NW PLATEAU AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE AFTER DARK. EXPECTING A HARD FREEZE OVER THE NW PLATEAU AND A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR ESPANOLA AND ALCALDE AREAS. MIN TEMPS LOWERED TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS. WIND ADV IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE NE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...632 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2008... UPDATE TO EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ZONES 6 AND 7. 43 .PREV DISCUSSION...317 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2008... STILL A LOT TO CONSIDER FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE...BUT WITH EARLIER GRIDS UPDATE AND TOR WATCH PLUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROS E HALF FCST AREA...AM RUNNING A LITTLE LATE. HIGHLIGHTS THIS PACKAGE ARE ONCE AGAIN A RISK OF LOCALLY SVR STORMS ROUGHLY E QUARTER OF NM TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING...WIND ADVISORY NE WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR EXPANSION...WHETHER FREEZING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT IN NW PLATEAU WILL OCCUR OVER LARGE ENOUGH AREA AND FOR LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO WARRANT FRZ ADVISORY ISSUANCE. ALSO HOW FAR THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE AFTER HAVING APPARENTLY JUST REACHED KABQ VICINITY AS OF THIS WRITING...OR IS IT A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. AND THESE ARE JUST THE BIGGER HIGHLIGHTS. DO PRETTY MUCH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR STORMS POSSIBLE AS INDICATED IN THEIR DAY 1 GRAPHIC. HAVE BEEFED UP WX WORDING THERE AS A RESULT. WHILE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL HAVE RELAXED SLIGHTLY TODAY...STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HELP VENT UPDRAFTS. ALSO DRY MID LEVEL PUNCH TO BE FARTHER E...NEARER THE SFC CONVERGENCE AND MAY HELP THE DYNAMIC MIX A BIT. AS FOR FREEZE ADVISORY POTENTIAL...AM STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT WHETHER SOME CLOUDS MAY HANG BACK ON OCCASION THERE TONIGHT. DESPITE SFC DEWPOINT PLUNGE THERE IS STILL SOME CLOUDINESS THERE EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATING SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT ONGOING AND WITH TROUGH AXIS SHARPENING UP LATER TONIGHT INTO MON TO W OF KFMN AM WONDERING JUST HOW CLEAR THEY WILL BE TONIGHT DESPITE THE MODELS INSISTENCE OF DRY SLOT CONTINUING IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. WILL HOLD OF ON ADVISORY THERE FOR NOW...BUT MAY ISSUE SPS ABOUT THE CHILL THERE BEFORE END OF SHIFT. FEEL PACIFIC FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY E TODAY...MAY EVEN ONLY MAKE IT TO CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. WITH ENOUGH DRYING LIKELY IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NM IN VCNTY OF FRONT...EXPECTING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER POPS TODAY MOST OF THIS AREA. BUT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR STORMS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STILL IN PLACE...DECENT ENOUGH H5 TO H7 LAPSE RATES AND THE MOISTURE GRADIENT/SFC BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO AID MINIMAL TO MODERATE HEATING FOR SHOWER DVLPMT. NO TIME TO DISCUSS BACK DOOR FRONT COMING IN NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS OR SO...SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION. TIME LONG SINCE UP...GOTTA GO. 43 .AVIATION... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL IN SOME LOCALES. ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT A FEW LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONGEST OVER SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 AND 45 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. 52 NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. .FIRE WEATHER... STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK KEEPING A SHARP CONTRAST IN WEATHER AND HUMIDITIES OVER THE STATE. FOR SUNDAY A DRAMATIC DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP AND THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DECLINE INTO THE TEENS. IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK THEIR WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO TEXAS KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS...YET CLOUDY AND RATHER DAMP CONDITIONS. A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE REMAINING DRY WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITIES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE IT SPILL THROUGH CENTRAL GAPS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FINAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING A MORE GENERIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SHUTTING DOWN OF PRECIPITATION. 52 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE... FARMINGTON...................... 63 29 61 31 / 5 5 5 5 GALLUP.......................... 59 20 58 23 / 5 5 0 5 GRANTS.......................... 64 26 61 27 / 20 5 5 5 GLENWOOD........................ 68 38 69 40 / 20 5 5 10 CHAMA........................... 54 22 49 27 / 30 10 10 10 LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 34 58 39 / 40 20 20 20 RED RIVER....................... 59 27 50 30 / 50 30 20 20 TAOS............................ 63 32 55 33 / 50 20 20 20 SANTA FE........................ 64 34 62 41 / 50 20 20 20 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 67 36 65 36 / 50 20 20 20 ESPANOLA........................ 69 30 66 37 / 40 20 20 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 71 44 70 44 / 30 10 10 20 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 73 41 72 45 / 30 10 10 20 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 40 67 39 / 30 10 10 20 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 72 41 70 41 / 30 10 10 20 SOCORRO......................... 75 43 70 42 / 30 10 10 10 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 66 34 65 41 / 40 10 10 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 68 41 63 36 / 40 20 10 20 CARRIZOZO....................... 73 50 63 42 / 40 20 20 20 RUIDOSO......................... 64 45 60 41 / 40 20 20 20 RATON........................... 69 41 52 34 / 40 30 30 30 LAS VEGAS....................... 66 42 55 35 / 40 20 30 30 ROY............................. 71 47 54 34 / 50 20 30 30 CLAYTON......................... 74 45 51 37 / 60 50 40 40 SANTA ROSA...................... 77 51 59 42 / 40 20 30 40 TUCUMCARI....................... 76 53 60 43 / 60 30 40 40 FORT SUMNER..................... 77 53 62 44 / 60 30 30 40 CLOVIS.......................... 74 53 62 43 / 60 40 40 40 PORTALES........................ 76 56 64 46 / 60 40 30 40 ROSWELL......................... 78 58 71 49 / 50 20 30 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001-003. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ004>007. && $$ GUYER