000 FXUS65 KABQ 231012 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 312 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009 .DISCUSSION... THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE RATHER BENIGN...HOWEVER THERE ARE A FEW INTERESTING WEATHER FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST TO NOTE IS A MODERATE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING QUICKLY SE OVER NORTHERN AZ/UT/AND WESTERN CO. A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH A 1004MB LEE TROUGH OVER NE NM. TOOK A CLOSE LOOK AT 00Z BUFKIT PROFILES AND 00Z LOCAL 7.5KM WRF/NAM/RUC GUIDANCE AND DECIDED TO RAISE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST SLOPES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM 14Z-22Z TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP A 55-65 KNOT 700MB MOUNTAIN WAVE COINCIDENT WITH BEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNWARD TRANSPORT...PARTICULARLY IN THE AREA BTWN RATON...LAS VEGAS...CLINES CORNERS...W GUADALUPE... AND NE LINCOLN COUNTIES. 700MB TEMPS THIS MORNING NEAR 0C WILL BE REPLACED WITH -6C TO -8C THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEREFORE FALLING TEMPS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z. A FEW FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MTS AND THE RATON RIDGE TODAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR AND COLD TEMPS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE NW FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER EACH NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPS WILL START OUT AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL TODAY THEN CREEP UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WHICH SHOULD REALLY BE A SPECTACULAR DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS COMING INTO SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTER STORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER ITS STRENGTH IS STILL A BIG QUESTION. ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON THIS POTENTIAL STORM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES SO STAY TUNED. GUYER && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL LOCATIONS. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID DAY TODAY. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH VARIATIONS IN THE WIND PATTERN. TODAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WINDS OVER AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL REACH 25 TO 35 MPH TODAY. RH WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST AND FAIR TO GOOD ACROSS THE WEST. COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE WITH AN ENHANCED BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BY TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER ALL ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...GRADIENT RELAXES AS DO SURFACE WINDS. VENTILATION WILL BE POOR WITH MUCH WEAKER MIXING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALL ZONES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY... MAINTAINING A DRY AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND CONTINUING. VENTILATION REMAINS POOR...OVERNIGHT INVERSION TO AFFECT MID SLOPE TEMPERATURES. WINDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TO NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 44 13 44 15 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 44 3 45 7 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 42 6 43 8 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 46 5 47 6 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 46 8 48 10 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 48 6 48 7 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 51 11 51 12 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 63 22 61 22 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 39 0 45 7 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 10 46 17 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 48 13 49 17 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 2 44 4 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 38 1 37 8 / 5 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 1 41 4 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 45 2 44 5 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 52 14 49 12 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 48 12 45 16 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 14 46 17 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 21 49 23 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 24 49 25 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 22 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 23 50 23 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 58 18 49 15 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 51 21 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 60 21 52 20 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 17 48 19 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 14 50 15 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 18 48 21 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 20 51 21 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 59 25 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 54 23 50 22 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 43 12 45 16 / 5 0 0 0 RATON........................... 47 12 49 13 / 5 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 50 17 48 17 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 50 23 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 52 18 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 61 23 55 18 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 61 22 54 21 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 62 23 56 23 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 62 25 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 63 24 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 66 23 56 22 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 70 28 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 68 23 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 65 27 54 26 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ515-523-528-529-532-533-539. && $$ GUYER/05