000 FXUS65 KABQ 092205 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 305 PM MST THU FEB 9 2012 .DISCUSSION... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CURRENT STORM EXITING THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME HANG BACK ENERGY STILL IMPACTING THE NE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING S AND W ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. IMPACT WAS MINOR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND UP TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE S THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND W UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BRIEF AND LIGHT E WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO...SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS NEAR DAYBREAK. DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS. A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR TO IMPACT THE E LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATE E CANYON WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE COLDER ON SATURDAY...WHILE SUNDAY IS COLDER IN THE W AND S. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING NM FROM THE W ON SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BLOSSOM OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE EXTEND OF PRECIPITATION. A MOSTLY DRY MONDAY WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS BRINGING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AND YET ANOTHER ONE THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN HAS A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE STATE TUESDAY WITH A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED LOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... BUT POTENTIALLY GOING TOO FAR S FOR MUCH IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. REGARDLESS WE SHOULD HAVE A PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CHJ && .AVIATION... LOCALIZED STRONG WEST AND NW SFC WINDS OF 20 TO 30KTS...GUSTS TO 35 OR 40KTS...CAN BE EXPECTED JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN LATE THIS AFTN AND A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVE. WITH WINDS ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DECREASING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THAT SHOULD LESSEN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND OCCURRENCES LATER TONIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF IFR CIGS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTR ABOUT 08Z ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM AND LOCALES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND N OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOME LOCALIZED MT OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THESE SAME AREAS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO ALL VFR LATER AM AND PM FRI. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 43 && .FIRE WEATHER... STORM TRACK STILL LOOKING FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS REACH US FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH SIGNIFICANT WETTING...MORE NORTH THAN SOUTH...SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE OR TUE NIGHT. AS ALWAYS THAT FAR OUT TIMING COULD CHANGE BY UP TO 24 OR 36 HOURS. DRY ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. VENTILATION WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN AT LEAST FAIR TO GOOD MOST AREAS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS COOLER TO COLDER AND MORE MOIST AIR TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME A PACIFIC LOW WILL SURGE INTO CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD MEET UP OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CROSSES OVER THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION AREAS THEN WITH EMPHASIS ON THE N HALF OF THE STATE WITH MAINLY SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME VARIATION BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW LOWER DOWN. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS SHOULD DOMINATE. SOME DRYING MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES IN LATER TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SOME DECENT AMOUNTS FORECASTED...THOUGH NORTHERN AREAS MAY AGAIN BE FAVORED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO BRING MORE WIND WITH IT AS WELL. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM OR TWO COULD IMPACT THE STATE BETWEEN WED AND THU NIGHT. THIS LATTER OUTCOME HAS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH IT. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 21 47 22 54 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 14 41 14 47 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 21 43 19 49 / 5 5 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 16 50 16 54 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 18 45 19 51 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 17 46 18 49 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 22 49 22 53 / 5 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 24 58 26 62 / 5 5 0 0 CHAMA........................... 10 39 6 43 / 5 5 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 22 43 18 49 / 5 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 20 42 20 45 / 20 5 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 12 40 7 41 / 10 5 5 0 RED RIVER....................... 11 35 9 36 / 20 5 5 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 8 37 7 38 / 20 5 5 0 TAOS............................ 14 43 12 44 / 10 0 0 0 MORA............................ 15 42 16 41 / 20 5 5 0 ESPANOLA........................ 20 48 21 54 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 22 43 22 50 / 10 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 23 46 24 52 / 10 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 28 51 30 54 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 51 32 56 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 53 28 57 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 28 51 31 56 / 5 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 24 54 26 57 / 5 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 29 51 30 55 / 5 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 29 58 30 60 / 5 5 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 26 47 27 54 / 5 5 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 26 49 27 57 / 5 5 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 19 46 22 51 / 10 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 21 44 25 45 / 20 5 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 24 49 26 53 / 10 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 24 51 26 56 / 10 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 24 45 28 51 / 10 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 16 43 16 32 / 10 0 5 10 RATON........................... 16 48 17 42 / 10 0 5 5 SPRINGER........................ 21 50 20 41 / 10 0 0 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 18 47 23 44 / 20 5 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 23 47 18 30 / 10 0 5 10 ROY............................. 23 49 24 36 / 10 0 5 5 CONCHAS......................... 23 55 23 43 / 10 0 0 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 23 55 27 50 / 20 0 0 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 23 54 22 40 / 10 0 0 5 CLOVIS.......................... 26 52 24 42 / 10 0 0 5 PORTALES........................ 27 53 25 44 / 20 0 0 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 27 57 25 52 / 20 0 0 5 ROSWELL......................... 28 57 28 58 / 20 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 27 55 29 59 / 10 0 0 0 ELK............................. 26 50 29 56 / 10 5 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 40/43