000 FXUS63 KABR 100544 AAC AFDABR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1144 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS BELOW. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH 06Z AS CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE. ALSO ADDED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH 06Z. LEFT TEMPS AND WINDS ALONE AS THEY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH WEAKENING WINDS BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE AND FALLING TEMPS AS WELL. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ARCTIC COLD FRONT JUST BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED FLURRIES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE STRONGEST H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND SUNSET NORTH OF ABOUT STATE HIGHWAY 20...AND AND HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET SOUTH. THEREAFTER...A VERY COLD...BONE DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. COLD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON A NEAR IDEAL SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH VERY DRY AIR...LIGHT WIND...AND CLEAR SKY...ALBEIT WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS THINKING...IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW EVENTUALLY GETS GOING IN THE OUT PERIODS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY AND THURSDAY /AND THERE LOOKS TO BE FOUR OF THEM/ APPEAR TO BE TRANSIENT OPEN WAVES AT THIS TIME. CUT OFF FROM ANY SORT OF MEANINGFUL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH...THE MAJORITY OF FANFARE WITH THESE MID-LEVEL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUD-COVER. THE SYSTEM KICKING OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD /SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY/ MAY SPREAD SOME WEAK WAA-OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION UP INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE LOOK PRETTY SLIM...SO JUST CARRYING A SLT CHANCE POP THERE TO MATCH UP TO NEIGHBORS. BY THE TIME THURSDAY ROLLS AROUND TWO MORE WEAK WAVES HAVE ALREADY SCOOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE FOURTH AND FINAL WAVE AGAIN SHOWING HINTS OF BEING A BIT STRONGER. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH CONTINUITY OF A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE HEADING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE PATTERN MORE ZONAL/TRANSIENT AND LESS MERIDIONAL...NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR COLD AIR TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WITH VIRTUALLY NO SNOW ON THE GROUND. MODELS ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOWCASE PREDOMINANTLY MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS KPIR/KMBG WHERE PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THRU ABOUT 12Z BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME VFR. NORTHERLY BREEZES FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WISE SHORT TERM...CHURCH LONG TERM...DORN AVIATION...TMT WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN