000
FXUS63 KABR 230926
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN 500MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROAD SURFACE LOW EXISTS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. RUC ALSO SHOWING A LEAD 700MB WAVE
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE BEST LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

FOR TODAY...INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ALONG
THE SD/MN BORDER WITH A WAVE OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THIS TROUGH.
WILL MAINTAIN 30-50 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR TODAY.
MAIN UPPER/SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THESE FEATURES
SOUTH A TAD. ONLY EXPECTING PRECIP TODAY NEAR THE INVERTED SFC
TROUGH/WEAK UPPER WAVE COMBO...WHILE ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IF/WHEN
SFC LOW TAKES A JOG TO THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY SPREAD PRECIP
INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND HAVE NOT GONE LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THERMAL
PROFILES STILL SUPPORTING A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. COULD BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY WOUND UP 500MB LOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT.
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ISO/SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND WILL STICK WITH THE 20/30 POPS. COULD EVEN BE A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THIS QUICK MOVING
WAVE MOVES THROUGH.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE 00Z MODELS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW SITUATION
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SPLIT FLOW
CHARACTERISTICS. MEANWHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SHOULD BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING ASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERWARD AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROF FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PCPN...BUT FOR NOW CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD. AND
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF/GFS PROGS...DID DECIDE TO BUMP UP TEMPS A
TOUCH AHEAD OF ADVANCING FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AROUND KABR/KATY THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
KPIR/KMBG ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY. VSBYS
MEANWHILE SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS AROUND KATY WHERE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...AND CONSEQUENTLY SOME
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND RAIN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN