000
FXAK68 PAFC 100110
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEE EC AND NAM MODELS DISSIPATE THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE GULF FRIDAY
EVENING WHILE THE GFS MODEL MOVES IT IN THE WESTERN GULF BEFORE
DISSIPATING IT FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE EC/NAM SOLUTION APPEARS TO
BE MORE REALISTIC. 

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA AND AND
THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS IS CAUSING STORMS TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC THEN TURN NORTH ONTO MAINLAND ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO NORTH TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF. ANOTHER
LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. AN
OLD LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CANADA INTO THE EASTERN MAINLAND HAS
INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA PRODUCING GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. 

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE
INTO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN SPREAD AS
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA, COPPER RIVER
BASIN, ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CHANGE
BACK TO RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY. 

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS...WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING DISSIPATES
OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL CHANGE TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A NEW LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC TONIGHT WILL TURN NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SPREAD INTO BRISTOL BAY AS SNOW SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA SATURDAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOWS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THEN TURN
NORTH INTO WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 125 130 140 150 155 160 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM FEB 12