000
FZAK80 PAFC 240211
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
445 PM AKST MONDAY NOVEMBER 23 2009

FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY NOVEMBER 28 2009

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH.

SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STRONG STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THEN TURN NORTHEAST INTO BRISTOL
BAY ON THURSDAY. THIS POWERFUL STORM WILL TURN NORTH NORTHWEST AND BE
LOCATED IN THE CHUKCHI SEA FRIDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-

ICE COVERED.

-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-

AN AREA OF OPEN WATER LIES IN THE CHUKCHI SEA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 66.4N TO
68.9N AND BETWEEN 167W AND 170.5W

SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM NEAR CAPE
NEWENHAM NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF NUNIVAK ISLAND TO 61N
167W AND NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CAPE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO 64N
168.2W TO 63.6N 167.2W TO 64.2N 167.3W TO 65.3N 168.4W TO 64N 172W TO
64.5N 175W AND TO 64.9N 180. ICE EDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF
EASTERN RUSSIA OVER TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF ANADYR, AND,
AT A MORE SOUTHERN EXTENT THAN WAS ANALYZED ON NOVEMBER 20TH. THE ICE
EDGE IS MAINLY 2 TO 7 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AT LEAST 2-6 TENTHS OF NEW ICE WILL FORM
OVER THE CURRENTLY OPEN AREA OF THE CHUKCHI. THIS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
NEXT 1 TO 3 DAYS AS VERY COLD NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE ARCTIC CONTINUE
TO BLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

-BERING SEA-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT-
PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN-

NORTON SOUND IS ICE COVERED.

1 TO 8 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRISTOL BAY.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY-
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEA ICE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF 61N THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST INCREASE OCCURRING BETWEEN ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
AND THE BERING STRAIT. ALONG AND SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND A SERIES OF
STORMS WILL RESULT IN A HIGHLY VARIABLE WIND AND TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
NET ICE CHANGE IN THIS AREA THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO. A
DECREASE IN ICE WILL OCCUR ACROSS BRISTOL BAY.

PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY-

4 TO 8 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN KNIK AND TURNAGAIN ARMS.
2 TO 5 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES FROM THE SUSITNA RIVER DELTA NEAR THE
NORTH FORELAND AND BRUCE PLATFORM AND IN A NARROW AREA FROM THE EAST
FORELAND NORTHEASTWARD.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN NOT
VERY CONDUCIVE TO ICE FORMATION WILL RESULT IN A NET LOSS OF ICE
COVERAGE BY SATURDAY.

PERCY DP 2009

$$