000
FXAK69 PAFG 242311
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...12Z MODELS UNANIMOUS SHOWING MILD PATTERN WITH
OVERALL LOW-HEIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS.

989 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR PAGM BRINGING SCATTERED -SHSN TO NRN
BERING AND CHUKCHI SEA COASTS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONITE
AND WED. THIS AS A DEEPENING 980 MB LOW NEAR PASY UNDERCUTS AND
ENDS UP AS A 970 MB LOW NEAR PASN 12Z THU. AREAS OF -SHSN THAT
ARE REMNANTS OF OLD GULF AK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE N OVER WRN INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE TONITE/WED. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING SOME -SHSN AND FLURRIES TO WRN HALF N SLOPE TONIGHT
AND WED. SMCR LEVEL NERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER CHUKCHI
AND NRN BERING SEAS/COASTS TONIGHT AND WED AS WELL.

THE DEEPENING SRN BERING LOW WILL INCREASE SRLY CHINOOK FLOW
AHEAD OF IT THU/FRI AS IT MOVES OVER BRISTOL BAY AND WEAKENS.
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY...POSSIBLY WARNING LEVEL CHINOOK
WINDS THROUGH AK RANGE PASSES THU NITE/FRI. SHORT-WAVE AHEAD OF
THIS...THE "WARM FRONT" OF THE LOW...WILL LIFT N OVER THE INTERIOR
THU AND WILL BRING FLURRIES OR -SHSN TO INTERIOR FROM PAFA W.

BEHIND THIS...VERY MILD AIRMASS WILL FLOW N OVER INTERIOR...WITH
0 TO +2C AIR AT 850 MB POSSIBLE FRI. THIS WOULD BRING SURFACE TEMPS.
IN LOW 40SF THROUGH AK RANGE PASSES...AND AT LEAST MID 30SF OVER
INTERIOR HILLS...ABOVE VALLEY INVERSIONS.

WEAK LOW-FLOW UPPER TROUGHING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER W COAST AND
INTERIOR SAT AND SUN AS A DEEP LOW MOVES N FROM NPAC INTO NRN GULF
AK. THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLING AND FLURRIES TO -SHSN MOST AREAS
THEN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

$$

MAR NOV 09