000
FXAK67 PAJK 282050
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1250 PM AKDT THU AUG 28 2008

.SHORT TERM... 18Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERAL LOW PRESSURE
INLAND NORTH OF PANHANDLE AND BROAD FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SOUTH OF PANHANDLE OVER NE PAC. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
GULF CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO FCST AREA WITH HELP OF WEAK W-SW
FLOW. PRESSURE TENDENCIES EARLIER THIS MORNING ROSE QUICKLY FROM S
WHICH HELPED ENHANCE S WIND IN LYNN CANAL TO SCA LEVEL. THIS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVE. RESIDUAL SCA SEA STATE /SWELL/
AFFECTING S CSTL ZONES WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVE.

 UPR LEVEL TROF AXIS CENTERED N-S ALG 155W. ASSOC COOL AIR ALFT
PROBABLY HELPING DRIVE WEAK CONVECTION OF THE MARINE LAYER OVER
THE GULF. AS A RESULT CLOSED CELLULAR CU DEVELOPING /PER VISIBLE
SAT IMAGRY/. SO WLY FLOW WILL STEER A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ONSHORE NEXT 24HRS...SUCH AS MDT RW AT SITKA PAST HOUR TO BREAKS
IN OVC FARTHER SOUTH IN CRAIG AND HIGHER AC DECK TO NORTH OVER
CROSS SOUND.

 HARD FOR ME TO PICK OUT A CLEAR WINNER MODEL...THE NAM AND GFS
SEEN TO HANDLE NEAR TERM PROGRESSIVE PATTERN QUITE SIMILARLY. UPR
TROF FCST TO GRADUALLY FILLS AS IT MOVES E OVER TIME. STATISTICAL
MOS GUIDANCE DOES VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL WITH NAM INDICATING
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS MORE OFTEN THAN GFS. MODELS MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
THRU FRI BEFORE UPR TROF PASSES AND NOTICEABLE CHANGE TWD DRIER
SPELL...DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE DISCUSSION BLO. AFTERNOON FCST
WILL REFLECT HI POP/LOW QPF FCST WITH SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPR TROF MOVES E INTO B.C. FRI
NIGHT AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GULF SAT. THE RIDGE WILL USHER IN
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN. WHILE THE GRIP
OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL WEAKEN...THIS WEAKENING IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ENOUGH TO SEE ANY LARGE SCALE CLEARING. A LOW IN THE N PAC
WILL TRACK NE TO NEAR KODIAK BY SUN NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF LATE SUN AND INTO THE PANHANDLE MON
MORNING.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER IN THE MID RANGE...HOWEVER
TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES BEGIN TO SURFACE MON FWD. AFTER
CONSULTING WITH PAFC...CONCLUDED THAT 28/12Z GFS WAS THE BEST
MODEL THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON THEN BLENDED OVER TO THE 28/00Z EC
SOLUTION.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF...WINDS INCREASE TO ESE SMALL CRAFT ALONG
THE OUTER WATERS SUN AND MON. MCLDY OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE THE RAINS RETURN LABOR DAY.


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041-042.

$$

TA/MAM