000
FXAK67 PAJK 241458
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW OVER THE N PAC WILL DRIFT E THEN NE TOWARD
THE SE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT AND MOVE N INTO THE WRN GULF TONIGHT.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE...AND LIKELY GO ALOFT AS IT
MOVES INLAND TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH GALES FOR THE SRN INNER CHANNELS AND THE MORE
E-W CHANNELS FURTHER N. REMAINING CHANNELS SHOULD SEE SCA LEVEL
WINDS EXCEPT THE FAR NRN N-S CHANNELS WILL LIKELY BE JUST BELOW
SCA LEVELS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NRN
LYNN CANAL WHERE SCA LEVEL S WINDS ARE OCCURRING ATTM BUT WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH THEN SHIFT TO THE N LATE THIS MORNING. OVER THE
LAND AREAS...AM KEEPING THE WIND ADVYS GOING AS THEY WERE ISSUED
PREVIOUSLY EXCEPT DELAYING ONSET UNTIL 21Z FOR ZONE 23. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION IS MARGINAL FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD
WINDS THAT OCCUR IN SE FLOW...SO USED LOCALLY WINDY FOR MOST OF
THE ADVY AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT EVEN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS MUCH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL MOVE INLAND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE LEFTOVER
SHOWERS OVER THE NRN AREA THIS MORNING. STEADIER RAIN SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE SRN AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN REACH CENTRAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY THE N AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT. COLDER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNELS OR IT WILL RETURN AS FLOW
TURNS NLY AGAIN...SO SHOULD SEE SNOW MAINLY FROM HAINES NWD
TONIGHT. AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVY LEVELS HOWEVER.


&&

.LONG TERM...THE MAIN PARENT LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF AND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A RIDGE TO SPREAD IN THE
EASTERN GULF BY EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEATHER FRONT THAT WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THE PARENT LOW FROM
THIS FRONT WILL BE REMAINING IN THE BERING SEA SO EXPECTING TO SEE
THIS FRONT WEAKEN TO GALES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO SPREAD IN BUT IT IS A RATHER LONG TRAJECTORY ACROSS
THE GULF SO LOWER LEVELS WILL MODERATE.

MODELS BRINGING YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. DEPTHS ON
THE SURFACE LOW ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 950 MB RANGE. ANTICIPATE
THIS FRONT TO MAKE LAND FALL FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT. EXPECT ANOTHER
RIDGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

GRID ADJUSTMENTS WERE WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF THROUGH ABOUT
THANKSGIVING... AND THE LATER PORTIONS WERE WITH HPC GUIDANCE AND ECMWF.

CONFIDENCE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AVERAGE OR BETTER FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
     AKZ022-023-028-029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-033>036-041-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-031-032.

&&

$$

RWT/BEZENEK