000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290400 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1200 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHWRS WITH SCT TSTRMS CONT TO DVLP ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONES ARND STNRY LOW IVOF AVC AND ALONG TROF XTNDG NE FROM THE LOW TO ERN SHORE AREAS. THUS...HAVE UPDATED ZFP/GRIDS TO REFLECT CRNT RADAR TRENDS...BASICALLY TO XTND LIKELY POPS ACROSS SERN CNTYS PAST 06Z. OTW...PCPN XPCTD TO BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE BY LATE TONITE WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE DVLPG. ALSO...BUMPED UP MINS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CRNT DP TMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVES OVER THE RGN ON FRI. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY FOR THE CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA TO REDVLP...MAINLY AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY (BUT NOT CONFINED TO). TMRW NIGHT SOME CLEARING WILL DVLP AND LOOK FOR VARIABLE TO LIGHT WINDS OVER INLAND AREAS. WITH ALL THE RAINFALL SOME AREAS GOT THE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO DVLP. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TWRDS THE RGN ON SAT ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO HAVE A WEAKENING TREND. THE NAM/GFS DIFFERING ON TEMPS AND INSTABILITY TO DVLP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHCS FOR SCT SHRA/TSRAS TO DVLP AHEAD OF IT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN SYNC WITH THE MAIN FEATURES TO AFFECT THE MID ATLC REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES S THROUGH SRN VA AND NERN NC SAT NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW (30%) RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON SUN... FRONT CONTINUES A SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE TRENDS... CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT (LLVL MSTR CONVERGENCE ZONE) WOULD JUSTIFY MINIMAL POPS (20-30% CHANCES) ACROSS FAR SRN VA AND NERN NC ON SUN AS WELL. AFTER THAT...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY PATTERN RE-ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION...AS DEEP RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PARKED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. OBVIOUSLY THIS LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL HAVE GREAT DEAL OF INFLUENCE AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF GUSTAV AND IT`S REMNANTS NEXT WEEK...AND LIKELY WITH HANNA AS WELL TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. IT CERTAINLY WOULD APPEAR OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WOULD BE FROM ONE OF THESE TROPICAL SYSTEMS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS...FOR NOW IT WOULD APPEAR THE MOISTURE FROM GUSTAV AND POSSIBLY HANNA WILL BE POOLED WELL W OF THE MID ATLC REGION. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EARLY PERIOD IS WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL... LOW CIGS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY MVFR WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TAF SITES TO REACH IFR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL. BUT DO NOT HAVE ENUF CONFIDENCE INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT. && .MARINE... AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO JUST UNDER SCA CRITERIA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CCW NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...CCW LONG TERM...BKH AVIATION...KLL/LSA MARINE...JYM/BH