000 FXUS64 KAMA 100548 AAC AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1148 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .AVIATION... FOR THE 06 UTC TAFS... AT THE KAMA TERMINAL...DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL...REDUCING VISIBYS TO 1/4 MILE. HOWEVER 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS JUST ABOUT READY TO CLEAR THE TERMINAL. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS SO THINKING THE FOG WILL START TO LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 10Z AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT KDHT/KGUY...LIGHT FOG AT KDHT...WITH MVFR VISBYS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z AS DRIER AIR UPSTREAM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL ALSO VEER AROUND TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. CLK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL HERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ONE INCH. AS SKIES CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST...WOULD EXPECT FOG TO FORM...SO HAVE INSERTED AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ AVIATION... FOR THE 00 UTC TAFS... AT KAMA...AREA OF -FZRA WAS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...AN AREA OF -SN CAN MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL SOON. HAVE GONE AND INCLUDED A TEMPO REMARK TO DENOTE THIS POSSIBILITY. CIGS HAVE RECENTLY IMPROVED TO MVFR BUT CAN SEE CIGS DROP BACK TO IFR IN THIS AREA OF -FZRASN. EXPECT LIGHT FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR NEAR 12Z FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS. AT KDHT/KGUY...PRECIP HAS PULLED EAST OF THE TERMINALS SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KDHT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 11Z FRI. WHILE AT KGUY...HAVE KEPT VFR CIGS AT AROUND 5KFT. POSSIBLE FOR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. CLK PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. SHARP MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED FORCING CONTINUES TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIP CONSISTING MAINLY OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS WORKING ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP INCLUDING FZRA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO BANDS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY LATE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...WHERE SECONDARY BAND OF SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS. ONCE THE PRECIP CLEARS THE AREA...WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BENEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GOOD TEMPERATURE REBOUND AS HEIGHTS RISE. HOWEVER...SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL START TO OOZE INTO THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY AS ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...SETTING UP A LARGE GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 30S NORTHEAST. ARCTIC FRONT WILL BACK ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE BROAD 1040MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. INSERTED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP. MID/UPPER-LEVELS REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC GEM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER /NEAR -10C/ TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. THUS WILL CARRY FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST RATHER THAN FZDZ DESPITE THE DRY AIR ALOFT. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA DUE TO ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE STRATUS DECK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN FAVORED SNOW RATHER THAN FZDZ DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER...AS IT LOOKS LIKE ANYWHERE MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP...IT WILL ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. LIGHT PRECIP REMAINS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT BELIEVE ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN STRONGER LIFT AND MOISTENING ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WITH PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACCORDINGLY. BELIEVE PRECIP WILL PRIMARILY BE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. DID INSERT SOME PATCHY -FZDZ ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER. CONTINUED THIS -FZDZ MENTION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEST PRECIP CHANCES COME ACROSS SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST. LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE EASTWARD WITH THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES...GENERALLY FAVORING ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WITH THE BEST CHANCES. HAVE RE-ORIENTED POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. KEPT PRECIP TYPE AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE SOME WAA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND MODELS DO SHOW A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AROUND H7-H75. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/CMC GEM/ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL KEEP THIS WARM NOSE BELOW FREEZING...SUPPORTING ALL SNOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MAGNITUDE OF THIS WARM LAYER ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FZRA/SLEET POTENTIAL...BUT ATTM NOT SEEING ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO INSERT A MIX IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS STILL ANTICIPATED. SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE LOOKS MOST FAVORED TO SEE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE ATTM. ALL PRECIP EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST. WILL SEE REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY THIS TIME. THE GFS EJECTS A LEAD UPPER WAVE WHICH DRY SLOTS THE AREA...BUT DOES EVENTUALLY TRY TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA...THEN EVENTUALLY TRACKS IT AND ATTENDANT PRECIP SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO. KB FIRE WEATHER... NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KB && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 05/15