000 FXUS64 KAMA 290459 AAC AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1159 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008 .AVIATION... THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES BISECT THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING KAMA AROUND 10Z. BEHIND THIS FRONT...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AND WITH NO CEILOMETERS IN THE AREA ITS DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW HIGH THESE CLOUDS AREA. HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE LOW LEVELS SATURATING VERY QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...INDICATING LOW CIGS AT KDHT/KGUY. THEREFORE...I HAVE INSERTED PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY...FACILITATING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE...I INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP BEGINNING AT 21Z FOR KAMA AND CARRIED CB REMARKS ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 03Z. JOHNSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/ UPDATE... ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE SOME EVENING WORDING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...SO REMOVED POPS AREAWIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS ALL READY SENT OUT. TAB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/ AVIATION... THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR GLENRIO...TO NEAR BORGER...TO LIBERAL AND SAGGING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO KAMA ANYTIME SOON SO I HAVE KEPT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 10Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING A NORTH WIND AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. I MENTIONED VCTS AT KAMA THROUGH 02Z. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ALSO IMPACT KAMA AROUND 00Z GIVING US SOME VARIABLE WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LIKELY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. I HAVE INSERTED CB REMARKS FOR KAMA BEGINNING AT 21Z FRIDAY. JOHNSON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/ DISCUSSION... ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITTING GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM DALHART TO GUYMON AND MAY STILL MOVE A FEW MILES SOUTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE RECEIVING A BETTER PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FRONT STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLES AND WASHING OUT. SO DECIDED TO INCREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT KEPT COOLER CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE AND LL WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. TROUGH AXIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIP AND WITH THE GFS AND NAM BREAKING OUT PRECIP...DECIDED TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST. POP CHANCES THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WOULD FAVOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS WARM AIR TO RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. WESTERLY COMPONENT REMAINS IN THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. POP CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND DIURNAL INFLUENCES WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE. GFS AND EURO PROJECT A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THINKING THE MEX WAS RUNNING TOO COOL WITH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES SEEMED JUSTIFIED AT THIS POINT SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. JJB FIRE WEATHER... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES TODAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MAINLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LITTLE OR NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 24/10