000
FXUS63 KAPX 121538
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1138 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT
SKIES IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1134 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON

NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO UPDATE
THE ZONES. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RELATIVELY ON TARGET.
IF THERE WERE ANY TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST, IT WAS TO LOWER THE
WINDS A BIT AND ADJUST THE CLOUD COVER A BIT. HOWEVER, THE CLOUDS
WILL BE HIGH THIN CIRRUS, SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY IS
EXPECTED.

LUTZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALL THE BETTER
DYNAMICAL FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THERE IS SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT DOES NOT REALLY HAVE MUCH ELSE GOING FOR IT. IN
FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS ACTUALLY HAVE THE FRONT WASHING OUT
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE 70S ON
MONDAY WITH COOLER READINGS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TUESDAY

AS FOR THUNDER CHANCES...DEFINITELY NOT IMPRESSED. 850-700MB LAPSE
RATES REMAIN BELOW 5C/KM WITH NO EVIDENCE OF ANY INSTABILITY OFF
MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE BEST SHOT FOR EVEN A REMOTE CHANCE FOR
THUNDER MIGHT BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...IF A FEW STORMS CAN HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO GET INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL THIS WILL BE THE CASE WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST AT THAT POINT. THE OTHER
REMOTE CHANCE COMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ASSUMES THE FRONT
BECOMES STALLED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD YIELD SOME
SURFACE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS
AT THE MOMENT HAVE THE SURFACE FRONT CLEARING THIS AREA BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.

BEYOND TUESDAY...NAM IS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN A POTENT
SHORTWAVE RIDING UP OVER THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING. CONSIDERING IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THIS
PERIOD...OPTING TO KEEP THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE FOR NOW. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE CONSIDERING THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY WEATHER WE
HAVE BEEN GOING THROUGH LATELY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

NO CHANCES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.  KAS

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/

THERE ARE NO WIND OR WAVE CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL LIKELY PICK UP ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ON MONDAY AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  KAS

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 700 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. KAS

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$