000 FGUS73 KARX 271658 ESFARX IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169- WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-312359- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1143 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS... THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR RIVER BASINS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA... AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO TWO PARTS... ONE FOR HIGH WATER...AND ONE FOR LOW WATER. A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE FORECASTS IS GIVEN AT THE END OF THIS OUTLOOK. IN THE FIRST TABLE BELOW FOR HIGH WATER...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER AT ROCHESTER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 14 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE REACHING 6.9 FEET. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 9/1/2008 - 11/30/2008 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% BLACK RIVER NEILLSVILLE 18 3.3 4.2 4.9 5.5 6.6 7.1 8.3 9.2 11.4 BLK RVR FLS 47 36.4 36.5 36.9 37.8 38.3 38.6 39.9 42.0 45.7 GALESVILLE 12 4.1 4.3 4.6 5.2 5.7 5.9 6.5 8.0 10.2 CEDAR RIVER AUSTIN 15 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.1 6.2 6.7 7.7 9.0 LANSING 18 9.2 9.4 10.5 10.9 11.8 13.1 13.5 14.5 14.9 CHARLES CTY 12 2.1 2.2 2.8 3.2 4.2 5.0 5.7 7.3 9.9 TURTLE CREEK AUSTIN 10 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.0 3.9 4.6 5.3 6.6 KICKAPOO RIVER LA FARGE 12 3.8 5.2 6.2 7.1 7.8 8.8 9.3 9.8 11.2 VIOLA 14 9.4 11.6 12.5 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.7 READSTOWN 12 5.9 8.3 10.0 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.1 12.6 13.2 SLDRS GROVE 13 8.3 10.6 11.6 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.6 GAYS MILLS 13 8.9 11.5 12.3 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.4 STEUBEN 12 8.5 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.7 MISSISSIPPI RIVER LAKE CITY 16 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.4 8.0 8.9 11.1 WABASHA 12 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.7 9.9 ALMA 16 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.5 8.0 DAM 5 MM 651.1 651.1 651.2 651.4 651.5 651.8 652.2 652.9 654.8 DAM 5A MM 645.6 645.8 645.9 646.1 646.3 646.6 647.0 647.9 650.3 WINONA 13 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.9 8.8 TREMPEALEAU MM 639.4 639.6 639.7 640.0 640.3 640.7 641.0 641.6 643.2 LA CRESCENT MM 631.3 631.4 631.7 632.1 632.6 633.1 633.7 635.3 636.5 LA CROSSE 12 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.9 8.0 GENOA MM 620.8 621.1 621.5 622.2 622.9 623.8 624.6 626.0 627.4 LANSING 18 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 9.1 9.8 LYNXVILLE MM 612.5 613.1 613.9 614.7 615.2 616.1 617.2 618.4 619.5 MCGREGOR 16 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.3 9.0 10.1 10.7 11.9 GUTTENBERG 15 4.4 4.9 5.3 6.3 7.4 8.1 9.1 9.9 11.0 ROOT RIVER HOUSTON 15 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 6.3 7.8 10.2 15.1 SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER HILLSBORO 13 5.2 5.8 6.3 7.2 7.6 9.1 10.0 12.2 13.4 SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER LANESBORO 12 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.2 5.5 6.5 10.1 TREMPEALEAU RIVER DODGE 9 5.4 5.8 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.2 9.4 10.2 10.8 TURKEY RIVER ELKADER 12 5.7 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.6 8.1 9.4 10.2 11.0 GARBER 17 7.5 8.6 9.1 9.5 11.0 11.6 12.6 14.1 15.7 UPPER IOWA RIVER DECORAH 12 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.1 6.3 7.5 10.1 DORCHESTER 14 7.8 8.5 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 12.0 13.2 16.9 WISCONSIN RIVER MUSCODA 9 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.8 6.2 ZUMBRO RIVER ZUMBRO FLS 18 5.9 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.3 9.2 10.5 SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER ROCHESTER 14 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.3 4.6 5.2 5.8 6.9 IN THIS NEXT TABLE...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE FALLING TO 2.1 FEET. CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 9/1/2008 - 11/30/2008 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% BLACK RIVER NEILLSVILLE 18 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 BLK RVR FLS 47 35.8 35.7 35.7 35.7 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 GALESVILLE 12 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 CEDAR RIVER AUSTIN 15 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 LANSING 18 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.9 CHARLES CTY 12 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 TURTLE CREEK AUSTIN 10 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 KICKAPOO RIVER LA FARGE 12 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 VIOLA 14 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 READSTOWN 12 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 SLDRS GROVE 13 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 GAYS MILLS 13 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 STEUBEN 12 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 MISSISSIPPI RIVER LAKE CITY 16 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 WABASHA 12 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 ALMA 16 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 DAM 5 MM 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 651.0 650.9 DAM 5A MM 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.5 645.4 WINONA 13 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 TREMPEALEAU MM 639.3 639.3 639.3 639.2 639.2 639.2 639.2 639.2 639.2 LA CRESCENT MM 631.3 631.2 631.2 631.2 631.2 631.2 631.2 631.2 631.2 LA CROSSE 12 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 GENOA MM 620.6 620.6 620.6 620.5 620.5 620.5 620.5 620.5 620.4 LANSING 18 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 LYNXVILLE MM 612.2 612.1 612.0 612.0 612.0 611.9 611.9 611.9 611.8 MCGREGOR 16 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 GUTTENBERG 15 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 ROOT RIVER HOUSTON 15 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER HILLSBORO 13 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER LANESBORO 12 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 TREMPEALEAU RIVER DODGE 9 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 TURKEY RIVER ELKADER 12 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 GARBER 17 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 UPPER IOWA RIVER DECORAH 12 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 DORCHESTER 14 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 WISCONSIN RIVER MUSCODA 9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ZUMBRO RIVER ZUMBRO FLS 18 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.3 SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER ROCHESTER 14 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE MIDDLE OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE LA CROSSE NWS INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE (LOWER CASE). $$