000 FXUS61 KBGM 100538 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1238 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 925 PM UPDATE...SKC ACRS THE RGN ATTM. HRRR/RUC ARE INDICATING POTNL FOR SOME STRATUS BY DAYBREAK INTO STEUBEN COUNTY...AND THIS COULD WORK EWD INTO THE ELM AREA. AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ANY LOW CLDS TO BREAK UP. OTRW JUST SOME MINOR 1ST TWEEKS FOR THE EVNG UPDATE. PREV BLO... HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FREE FALLING BUT MINS WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL START DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT SO THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH JUST INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOW PROGRESS OF ARCTIC FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS AREA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA DUE TO COLD FRONT AND SRN CWA DUE TO SOUTHERN SYSTEM. AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE LIKELY POPS NORTH AND SOUTH AND JUST HIGH CHC OVER THE CENTRAL FA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH NORTH/SOUTH AND LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FA. SATURDAY...BEHIND COLD FRONT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR AND SOME SFC RIDGING NOT MUCH LAKE RESPONSE EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS DURING THE MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRYING LOWERED POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING DURING THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...SECONDARY TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATE NIGHT. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES AFTER MIDNIGHT UNDER 300 FLOW. MODELS INDICATE BETTER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE MULTI LAKE CONNECTION. WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUM POSSIBLE AND JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO TEENS. SUNDAY...BEHIND SECONDARY TROF NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN PERSISTS WITH POSSIBLE WELL ORGANIZED SNOW BAND LIKELY TO DROP SOUTH AND DIMINISH. WILL HAVE CHC POPS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH HIGHER POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG TERM PD BEGINS WITH THE END OF THE CAA PTRN OF THE WEEKEND...AND A FEW LE SNOW SHWRS OVER THE NY ZONES. TROF QUICKLY LIFTS EAST ON MON AND ALLOWS MUCH MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES. BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM WILL HAVE NEAR NRML TEMPS AND SPOTTY LGT PCPN. WEAK WV RETURNS PCPN TO THE AREA TUE WITH ENUF MILD AIR TO BRING SOME MIXED PCPN. COLDER AIR RETURNING BHD THE WV WITH RESULT IN SOME LGT SNOW SHWRS TUE NGT INTO WED. MODELS IN GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT SO TEMP AND PCPN HAS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE. FOR TEMPS...FLWD HPC GUID WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MEX. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS, WITH CIGS SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FIRST BRING A LOW TO MID DECK OF CLOUDS, WITH SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING, SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND CIGS WILL LOWER. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS IT IS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, WOULD EXPECT LOW MVFR TO BECOME IFR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. THEY MAY PICK UP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, BUT WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS. .OUTLOOK... FRI NGT...MVFR LIKELY AND IFR VSBYS PSBL IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT. SAT TO SUN NGT...MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN NY AND MOSTLY VFR AT KAVP. MON...VFR. TUE...MVFR PSBL IFR IN LGT SNOW. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...SLI