000 FXUS61 KBGM 282358 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 758 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND THE FAIR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... STILL SOME DIFFS IN THE GUIDANCE W/RESPECT TO EWD PROGRESS OF -SHRA ASSCD WITH REMNANTS OF FAY. WE ARE LEANING TWDS A SLOW EWD TRANSLATION OF THE PCPN TNGT PER GFS AND LCL WRF RUN...BUT THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT IN THE NAM. XPCT QPF TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MINS GNRLY IN THE 50S. WENT WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT TEMPS THIS AFTN ACRS MUCH OF SW NY AND CNTRL PA ARE IN THE M/U50S WHERE PCPN IS OCCURRING...AND TMRW`S MAX TEMPS FCST ACRS THE BGM CWA WILL BE A CHALLENGE. WE ARE LEANING TWDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. DON`T BELIEVE THAT -SHRA WILL BE AS PERSISTENT OR WDSPRD AS WHAT WE OBSERVED TDA TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...FOR NOW WE`RE FCSTNG MAXES IN THE M/U 60S FOR MUCH OF NE PA AND THE WRN CATSKILLS...WITH A GRADIENT TO M70S OVER THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. XPCT SCT -SHRA...SPCLY ACRS ERN ZONES IN THE MRNG. WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE SCT -SHRA TMRW AFTN WHEN WRN ZONES COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. CDFNT APRCHS TMRW NGT...WITH SOME TIMING DIFFS FOR SAT. WE BLENDED THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGESTS A CHC FOR -SHRA MAINLY IN THE MRNG...ALTHO SOME ACTIVITY COULD LINGER ACRS FAR SE ZONES INTO SAT AFTN. STABILITY PARAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ONLY -SHRA...ALTHO SLGT CHC FOR TSRA SAT AFTN FAR SE ZONES VCNTY OF DEPARTING FNTL BNDRY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE... GIVING HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KELM. ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS. LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT... SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS... THEN VFR WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUN/MON/TUE...VFR. POSSIBLE IFR FOG SUN... MON AND TUESDAY MORNING AT ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...MLJ