000 FXUS61 KBGM 240304 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1004 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REGAIN CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRIGGERS SOME SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RA/DZ MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN PA. ACTIVITY IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO SIZABLE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE PRESENT TIME AS NOTED ON KBUF/KALY 00Z RAOBS. AS SLIGHTLY HEAVIER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE. AREA BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW HOUNDED MILLIBARS...THUS CAN EXPECT ON -RA/-DZ ONLY. MAIN FORCING FOR THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WV WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE NJ COAST BY MORNING. WITH MAIN FORCING REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND NO SIZABLE MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DUE TO WEAK NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...QPF SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A MOISTENING AIRMASS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. OTHER THAN THAT...EVERYTHING APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ZONES ALREADY SENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WITH RIDGING ALOFT THEN REDEVELOPS ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. E-SELY FLOW CONTINUES EARLY IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN A FCST CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE ZONE OVER THE WRN SRN TIER/ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC-CHC FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH NOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WORKING INTO THE MSV-AVP REGION. A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT IN SERIES OF UL TROFS RELOADS OVE THE WRN GTLKS AND UPR MIDWEST. A MINOR WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CNTRL NY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DIGGING TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BLENDED MOS TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE BUT HAVE LEANED WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS ON WEDS/THURSDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFFSETTING THE ANOMALOUSLY MILD AIRMASS ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPR 40S-LOW 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UPON US TO START THE PERIOD AS A DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO ROTATE EASTWARD BEGINNING THU NIGHT. BY FRI MORNING...A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE CAPE HATTERAS COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING THE SFC LOW WILL RESIDE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND MARTHA`S VINEYARD EARLY FRI...WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION SHOWING A FURTHER NORTH POSITION. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WELL DEVELOPED INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY EARLY FRI WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SUGGESTING IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DECENT QPF NUMBERS IF THIS MATERIALIZES AS SUGGESTED. BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE P-TYPE. ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARDS THE INITIAL P-TYPE BEING MOSTLY RAIN AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...WITH VALUES FALLING TO SUBZERO VALUES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL OCCUR ON FRI BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO PLUMMET BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...WHICH LENDS SUPPORT TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT AS SFC WET-BULB TEMP REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON FRI. BY FRI NIGHT...THE MAIN H50 UPPER-LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY TAKING MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DYNAMICS WITH IT. BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM...COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHERE TEMPS STILL RESIDE IN THE UPPER 40S WOULD NORMALLY HINT AT DECENT LAKE EFFECT EVENT...HOWEVER THIS DOESN/T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS PER GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE HEIGHTS REMAINING STAGNANT AROUND 5 KFT. THAT SAID...WHAT LOOKED MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH YESTERDAY/S RUNS IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS SO WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. FOR NOW CAN STILL EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION SUFACES ALONG WITH AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FRI NIGHT/SAT...HOWEVER ALL THINGS POINT TOWARDS A MODEST EVENT AT BEST AS TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM INITIALLY. STAY TUNED... && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAVP/KBGM BTW 08Z-12Z. AT KAVP, LIGHT DRIZZLE IS ALSO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AROUND 09Z AT KSYR AND 03Z AT KRME. ON TUESDAY, CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL STILL BE AROUND 4K FT. LIGHT E/SE FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... WED/THU...VFR. FRI/SAT...MVFR/PTCHY IFR WITH RAIN. && .CLIMATE... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT SEEN AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER. THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER OF SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES THAT WOULD MOVE US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS SUNDAY (11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT THE AIRPORT. * THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE. TOP 5 1) 1946 276 DAYS (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST) 2) 1998 274 DAYS (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND) 3) 2009 271 DAYS (THROUGH 11/23) 4) 1978 265 DAYS (MAR 6 - NOV 27) 5) 1932/1941 263 DAYS (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH) && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...CMG SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...CMG AVIATION...RRM CLIMATE...