000 FXUS63 KBIS 100858 AFDBIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 258 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAIN WEATHER CONCERN IS IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 16Z FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 16Z SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO POUR AROUND A 1045MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST...REACHING SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0F NORTHEAST TO NEAR 15F ABOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKING CONTROL OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 15 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL YIELD APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 30 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL ISSUE AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM BURKE COUNTY EAST TO ROLETTE AND SOUTH INTO PIERCE AND FOSTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MID SATURDAY MORNING AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE DAYSHIFT AND/OR SWINGSHIFT CAN MAKE THE NECESSARY UPGRADES OR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST DATA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD TODAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 10F IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT TOWARD MID WEEK. WILL UTILIZE A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW UNDER A COLLAPSING UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN ADD A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AS THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD AND DRY ARCTIC HIGH. AFTER A COLD START SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY BUT THERE IS AN INDICATION OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN. BEYOND THIS...THE GFS MAINTAINS A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES SEEMS REASONABLE. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW BY MID WEEK...WE CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES THERE IS NOT A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A BAND OF STRATUS FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THAT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO MINOT AND JAMESTOWN THIS MORNING...BUT THINKING NOW IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN EAST OF THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CLEARING THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AN POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN DICKINSON AND WILLISTON TOWARDS 12 UTC SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NDZ002>005-012-013-023-025. EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005- 013-023-025. && $$ SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM....TWH AVIATION...TWH