000 FXUS64 KBMX 241152 AAA AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 552 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .UPDATE...FOR AVIATION. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 405 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/ CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS MORNING AS AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE HELPS TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A CAPPING INVERSION SINCE SUNDAY. THIS CAP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ERODING THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...AND PUSHES A FAIRLY DRY DOME OF COLD AIR TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS DRY FRONT IS VERY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS...EVENTUALLY ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN WITH TONIGHTS POPS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THOUGH MOS HAS FALLEN BELOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY... I WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. I STILL THINK THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING A SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS WE HAVE BEEN STUCK WITH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST AS SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY GIVING US A SHOT AT ONE MORE FROST ADVISORY BEFORE WE DISCONTINUE ISSUING THEM UNTIL SPRING. .LONG TERM...TURKEY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOUGH THE DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...IT WILL TAKE A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ROTATE AROUND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO BRING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS REMAIN THE COLDEST MORNINGS OF THE WEEK...AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE AT SEEING EVERYBODY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S...WITH SOME OF THE SHELTERED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING A 29 OR 30 DEGREE READING. EITHER WAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN AS LATE AS MONDAY. PERTAINING TO THE LONG RANGE POPS IN THE FORECAST...I HESITATE TO JUMP POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ON SUNDAY AS THESE SYSTEMS TEND TO SLOW DOWN...SO CHANCE POPS WILL BEGIN MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ...FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN SET UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SLIDING JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST ON SUNDAY TO START SOME RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...PUSHING US BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING AS A FAIRLY LARGE AND VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THICKNESS VALUES HAVE FALLEN EVEN LOWER SINCE YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN...AS 5250DM VALUES PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS HATTIESBURG BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS FOR ALABAMA...WE ALL KNOW EVERYTHING HAS TO PERFECTLY PHASE TOGETHER TO GET THE ESS WORD. SO...THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW WILL BE ON MONDAYS WEATHER...WHICH HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SET UP SO FAR...LOW LEVEL JET...PLENTY OF MOISTURE ...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX...ALL WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS...BUT I OBVIOUSLY WILL REFRAIN FROM JUMPING TO ANY CONCLUSIONS AT THIS POINT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD ALSO MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING US BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 27 && .AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION. LOW CIGS IN MVFR RANGE...AND A FEW IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. CIGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS WELL. SHOULD HAVE CIGS GO ABOVE 3KFT UNLIKE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO AL WILL SEE SOME LOW MOISTURE AND CIGS RETURN. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EXISTS...WILL NOT MENTION AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AS PROBABILITIES ARE LOW FOR POINT FCST. 08 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 61 43 61 35 55 / 0 20 10 10 10 ANNISTON 61 44 64 37 57 / 0 20 10 10 10 BIRMINGHAM 62 45 63 40 55 / 0 20 10 10 10 TUSCALOOSA 64 44 63 38 58 / 0 20 10 0 10 CALERA 62 45 63 40 56 / 0 10 10 10 10 AUBURN 62 45 63 42 58 / 0 10 10 10 10 MONTGOMERY 65 47 65 39 61 / 0 10 10 0 10 TROY 64 46 66 39 58 / 0 10 10 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 27/08