000
FXUS65 KBOI 100354
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MST THU FEB 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...WARM-FRONTAL CLOUDS STILL COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE 
CWA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  PROGS SHOW CLEARING IN 
EXTREME SRN OREGON AND THAT CLEARING IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY 
NEWD INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY.  IF THAT HAPPENS TEMPS IN THE SRN VALLEYS 
WILL RISE INTO THE 50S.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS DOWNPLAYED THE 
CLEARING TREND AND KEEPS FRIDAY/S TEMPS RELATIVELY COOLER UNDER 
CLOUDIER SKIES.  NEW MET MOS FROM 00Z NAME CYCLE CONTINUES TO 
FORECAST TEMPS ABOVE OUR FORECAST BUT UNTIL THE WARM-FRONTAL
CLOUDS SHOW MOVEMENT AWAY FROM US WE WILL STAY WITH THAT FORECAST.  
FORECAST OF PATCHY FOG IN THE SNAKE BASIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY 
MORNING ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS 8K-10K FEET MSL...WITH SCATTERED MVFR 
AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG AND AREAS OF TERRAIN 
OBSCURATION...WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT 
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS 
WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEST 10-20 KTS. WEEKEND 
OUTLOOK...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY 
MORNING...THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM 
FRONT IS ORIENTED FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN IN OREGON SOUTHEAST TO THE 
UTAH-NEVADA STATE LINE. THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED ABUNDANT CLOUD 
COVER AND LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST 
MODELS PROJECT VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THIS FEATURE THROUGH 
MIDNIGHT...THUS A CONTINUATION OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP 
WILL REMAIN OVER IDAHO WITH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IN OREGON. 
BELIEVE ANY STEADIER LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE 
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN BUT INTERMITTENT SPRINKLES...A 
NON-MEASURABLE EVENT WILL ALSO BE OVER THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY 
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING 
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INCLUDING OUR AREA. THIS IS A GOOD SETUP 
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG SINCE WE NOW HAVE BOUNDARY LAYER 
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH VERY LITTLE WIND TO MIX THINGS OUT. THE RIDGE 
BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE MORE WEAK SYSTEMS 
MOVING EAST FROM THE COAST...ALMOST EVOLVING INTO A WEAK CUTOFF LOW 
PATTERN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS CONUS 
WILL BE A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A STAGNANT REX TYPE BLOCK IN 
THE WEST. THIS KEEPS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION WITH 
CLOUDS...LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BUT BEING HELD 
HIGHER AT NIGHT. NO INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR SEEN IN THE SHORT TERM 
PERIOD.           

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN 
REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE 
SPLITS AS IT MOVES INLAND AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS THROUGH SUNDAY. 
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY IS STRONGER BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO 
SPLIT THIS SYSTEM AND SHIFT MOST OF THE ENERGY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. BOTH SYSTEMS LOOK TO BRING MINIMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. 
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED PATTERN 
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING 
MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. 
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN 
FALL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

&& 

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...GS
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/CB