000 FXUS61 KBOX 121412 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1012 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDWEEK ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA...BUT HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET SLIGHTLY. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...WITH THE CENTER MOVING SOUTH GRADUALLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TONIGHT WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AT MOST LOCATIONS. MONDAY MORNING...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH AND THEN EAST...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS AT THIS POINT. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THE SUN WILL SHINE THE MOST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DRY WEATHER ALONG ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAY OF THE PERIOD...THEN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN WITH A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS THEREAFTER. RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN SHOULD PREVENT ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AS WAA RESULTING FROM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THEN LOOKS TO PASS TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...IT/LL PROBABLY COME THROUGH DRY FOR MOST. SW FLOW AND INCREASING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ON TUE SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON WED AND DECENT MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARM TEMPS ONCE AGAIN...PROBABLY A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT. ECMWF IS MOST ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED NIGHT AND THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN EVOLUTION AFTER DAY 5...WITH LARGE HIPRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROBABLY SPELL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FROM FRI ONWARD. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT /AND HAVE BEEN/ WITH DEVELOPING A RATHER FORMIDABLE AREA OF LOPRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST DURING NEXT WEEKEND. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT A SEA BREEZE WILL KICK UP AT KBOS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN MONDAY... PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROB OF SOME LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE IN ONSHORE FLOW. SOME MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2-3FT RANGE WITH WINDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-SCA GUSTS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...BUT THAT IS LOW PROB. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EKSTER NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...EKSTER AVIATION...BELK/EKSTER/RLG MARINE...EKSTER/RLG