000 FXUS61 KBOX 090654 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 155 AM EST THU FEB 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY CLIP THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND...USHERING IN A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE TUE AND WED OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 150 AM UPDATE... LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING UP TO 1 INCH ARE ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION. THE SNOW SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR THIS REGION AS UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY BE SLIPPERY. ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END BEFORE MORNING RUSH HOUR...UNTREATED ROADS MAY REMAIN SLIPPERY. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH JUST AN ABUNDANCE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THURSDAY... THIS WEEKS TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER WILL CONTINUE AS MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS LOW 40S WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN MASS AND INTO NH. THIS WARM UP IS THANKS TO SLIGHT RIDGING MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A LATE DAY RALLY AS THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS INTO THE LATE MORNING FROM THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. THURSDAY NIGHT... THE QUIET WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE COASTAL REGIONS THANKS TO THE WARM START FROM THE DAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WOULD BE QUIET CHILLY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRI * ARCTIC COLD STILL EXPECTED SUN AND MON * LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS SAT/SAT NIGHT 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON THE POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO ME AND THE MARITIMES...HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMPLITUDE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE VORTEX INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF AND ITS PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE LEAD SHORT WAVE SATURDAY WHICH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THERE IS SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE /PER THE EC/ WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT TO YIELD WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTH COAST/ SAT WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS FOR CAPE COD SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS AND ITS PREVIOUS RUNS ARE PLACING MORE STOCK IN A TRAILING SHORT WAVE SUN WITH THE ATTENDING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS SOLUTION SUPPORTS A POSSIBLE WINDEX EVENT WITH SNOW SQUALLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO QUITE THE MODEL SPREAD! THE NAM SUPPORTS THE GFS BUT THE 50 MEMBER ECENS AND THE GFS MOS POPS SUPPORT THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS WE FOLLOWED THE GFS MOS POPS FOR SAT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUN. HOWEVER CAN'T RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SUN. TEMPS MAY FALL SHORT OF RECORD COLD SUN AND MON HOWEVER GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUN NGT TO YIELD BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH POLAR VORTEX EJECTING QUICKLY OUT OF THE MARITIMES AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S TUE-WED NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT UNTIL 10Z THIS MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FMH/HYA/ACK TERMINALS WHERE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NANTUCKET. AFTER 10Z TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. ANY LEFT OVER MVFR CONDITIONS ON THE CAPE/NANTUCKET SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 12Z. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MA. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT LATE SAT...THEN AGAIN DURING SUN. MON...MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. && .MARINE... TONIGHT... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ISLANDS POINT SOUTH. THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT... LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THU SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING. GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...BUT WIND GUSTS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY...SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL. SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT LIKELY NOT EVOLVE INTO A GALE CENTER UNTIL SAT NIGHT AS IT TRACKS OVER EASTERN GEORGES BANK. THIS MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS SAT NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN MA WATERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY...ARCTIC FRONT LIKELY TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH NW GALES ON THE BACK SIDE ALONG WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE GIVEN THE NW WIND TRAJECTORY. MON...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS EASING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN