000 FXUS61 KBTV 091808 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 108 PM EST THU FEB 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS. AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1259 PM EST THURSDAY...FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES. ADJUSTED TODAY'S MAX TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBS. LATEST FORECAST ALSO CONTAINS COMPLETE UPDATE THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMUM TEMPS NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1259 PM EST THURSDAY...SHORT-TERM BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH SFC RIDGE IN CONTROL TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION...ALLOWING LIGHT S-SW WINDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE. THIS WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...LOWS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. SKIES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CLEAR. ON FRIDAY...BEGIN TO SEE DIGGING/POSITIVE TILT UPR TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY SWWD ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO WHICH WILL BEGIN A SEWD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR CURRENTLY LOCKED ACROSS NRN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. AS FRONTAL BNDRY SHARPENS UP...SWLY GRADIENT FLOW PICKS UP ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND AND EXPECT TO SEE WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON FRIDAY. WE/LL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH 21Z...WITH ARCTIC BNDRY ENTERING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 21-00Z. THUS...JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOST SECTIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS OF VT. AGAIN...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS ABOVE THE MOS CONSENSUS. ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE IN THE AFTN WITH FRONT APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AND MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING 20-00Z. HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS FAR WRN CWA. ARCTIC BNDRY SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. BNDRY IS BEST DEFINED ACROSS NRN NY...PRIOR TO SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LOW-LEVEL T-GRADIENT RELATIVELY INTENSE...AND SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS ACROSS NRN NY INTO VT DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NRN NY. SETUP MAY YIELD A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY WRN SECTIONS. WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES...COULD SETUP SOME TRAVEL HAZARDS WITH SNOWFALL INITIALLY MELTING ON CONTACT BUT THEN RAPIDLY FREEZING AS TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN A FEW UPR SINGLE DIGITS BY 12Z SATURDAY. THUS...ICY SPOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF -SHSN/SQUALLS AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS SHIFT SW-NW WITH FROPA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE CT RIVER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NRN NY. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR WITH HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTN. N-NW WINDS TO CONTINUE AT 5-10 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 313 AM EST THURSDAY...WK RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WK LOW DIVING SOUTH THRU ONTARIO WITH SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE CWA. SOME MDL DIFFERENCES W/ RESPECT TO TRACK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED W/ THE LOW. GFS BRINGS IT OVER THE REGION...WHILE ECMWF KEEP ANY SNOWFALL TO OUR SOUTH. WRAP-AROUND WIND FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES IN FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO SUNDAY THOUGH WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABV AND BLW ZERO...COMBINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH...WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS THAT COULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY/WARNING. WINDS DO ABATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST. MDLS DO DIFFER OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TO LOW TRACK OF SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LOW THAT HAS KEPT FEED OF CD AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS TO LIFT N AND E DURING THIS TIME. GFS BRING SYSTEM THRU THE CWA LATE MONDAY THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH BULK OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RW/SW IN VALLEY LOCALES. ECMWF KICKS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION AS TROUGH DIGS IN BEHIND IT TO KICK IT MORE EAST THAN NORTH. CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...WILL SPLIT DIFFERENCE OF THESE TWO MDLS...KEEPING PRECIP IN FOR TIMEFRAME W/ CHANCE POPS. OVERALL FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT COLDER TREND FOR FIRST HALF DUE TO ARCTIC AIR SURGE...THEN ABV NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES AS RIDGE SETS OVER EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR AMPLE WAA DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BROKEN STRATUS DECK MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND BRING MVFR CIGS TO KMSS AND KSLK BY DAYBREAK. SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU 00Z SAT...THEN ARCTIC FRNT WL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WL SHIFT FROM SW ON FRIDAY TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. A WARM FRON MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW/OCCASIONAL IFR ON TUESDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND NEAR TERM...SND SHORT TERM...SND LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JN/LOCONTO/SND