000 FXUS61 KBTV 121330 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 930 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 930 AM EDT SUNDAY...NOT PLANNING ON ANY UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH THIN CLDS STREAMING E FROM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LKS REGION...WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL NOT HAVE IMPACT ON SUNSHINE OVER AREA. TEMPS LOOKS GREAT AND HAVE REBOUNDED FROM MORNING LOWS AND LOOK ON TRACK FOR FORECASTED HIGHS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SUNNY FAIR WEATHER FALL DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AS 850 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...NEAR 70 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 318 AM EDT SUNDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE SUNNY DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT AS POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROP OUT OF CANADA...JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. IF THIS COLD FRONT DOES AFFECT OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...IT WILL MAINLY BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND...PEAKING AROUND 12 DEGREES C ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WAA AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR 12 DEGREES C WILL PROVIDE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE 8 DAY FORECAST ON TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS TO MID 70S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 318 AM EDT SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THERE MAY BE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND THATS WHERE ALL THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. VERY MINIMAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE US WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THEREFORE HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN 30 POPS. AFTER COLD FROPA UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN US AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE TIMING ERRORS. WITH ZONAL FLOW WILL COME SEASONAL TEMPS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...A 1035MB SFC ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER VT AS OF 1130Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY AM VALLEY FOG WHICH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY 14Z. SOME MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN MODERATELY STRONG NWLY FLOW. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER INDICATE CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8-10 KFT AGL. THESE CLOUDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ANY ISOLD SHOWERS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO NERN VT AND ARE NOT REFLECTED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME LIMITED MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW-SE THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. NOTICE TO USERS OF TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAF)...BEGINNING AT 0000 UTC ON NOVEMBER 5...2008...THE FORMAT FOR TAFS WILL CHANGE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE TAFS USING A VALID DATE AND TIME GROUP IN THE FORECAST. ALL METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES WORLDWIDE WILL ALSO ISSUE THEIR TAF FORECASTS IN THIS NEW FORMAT. THIS IS BEING DONE TO ACCOMMODATE 30 HOUR TAF FORECASTS THAT WILL BE DONE FOR SELECT MAJOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS WORLDWIDE. THERE WILL BE 32 MAJOR U.S. INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS FOR WHICH TAFS FORECASTS WILL BE VALID FOR 30 HOURS. THIS FORMAT CHANGE IS BEING MANDATED BY THE INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (ICAO). THE 6 TAF FORECASTS BEING DONE BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO BE VALID FOR 24 HOURS. TO SEE EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW FORMAT...PLEASE GO TO THE INTERNET WEB SITE LISTED BELOW. WWW.AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...JN/NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...BANACOS