000 FXUS61 KBTV 031721 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 121 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather persists through Saturday, except over northern New York where a few light rain showers are possible on Saturday. Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the 60s and low 70s. Widespread rainfall returns for the day on Sunday before dry conditions return to start next week. Conditions mid week through Friday are trending wetter with daily chances of rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 105 PM EDT Friday...Overall, a pleasant afternoon as blue skies continue to peak through the scattered clouds across the region, although some high clouds have slowly been filtering in. Only small adjustments were made to sky cover and temperatures to reflect recent observations, otherwise the forecast is in good shape. Previous Discussion...The region is currently between a shortwave trough digging south over the Atlantic and a ridge building in from the west. Low clouds are lingering from weak northeasterly flow and trapped low-level moisture, and they should persist for the rest of the night. Fog has developed in a few of the sheltered valleys where clearing has occurred, particularly where it rained yesterday. Due to the cloud cover and some light winds, temperatures should not fall much more tonight, so lows will generally be in the 40s. The ridge will build in during the day today and it will initially clear out the lingering low clouds and fog. Combined with warm advection from increasing southerly flow, temperatures will rise into the upper 60s and low 70s, with the highest temperatures expected in the St. Lawrence Valley. The sun will be short lived as high clouds ahead of an occluded front will spread into the region not long after the low clouds depart, so much of the sun will likely be filtered. The front will be able to spread a few showers into northern New York tonight, but it will be weakly forced and falling apart as it arrives, so precipitation amounts should be under a tenth of an inch. High pressure situated over Atlantic Canada will be stubborn and prevent the rain from reaching Vermont. The high remains in place for Saturday and the day should be be mostly dry, even over New York, where at most there will be a couple light showers. The high clouds should remain in place but an absence of lower clouds should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Ensemble and deterministic models have trended much drier Saturday night keeping the highly amplified ridge axis over the North Country. This will delay the onset of precipitation while flow aloft continues to stream ample moisture northward. As such, QPF was cut from the overnight hours with only a few hundredths possible over northern New York and nothing for Vermont. Temperatures will remain mild in the 40s to low 50s. Frontal passage is still expected through Sunday, moving quickly west to east as ridging shifts eastward. Total QPF should be less than 0.5" with general amounts ranging from 0.05-0.33". Highest amounts will be across the Greens of southern Vermont with amounts decreasing northward. Temperatures will be seasonal in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Post frontal thermal advection will be near neutral given the replacing airmass will originate over the central Plains. As ridge amplifies Monday/Tuesday, dry conditions will prevail with temperatures warming above seasonal averages into the upper 60s to low 70s. The next wave continues to be projected to move into the North Country Tuesday night through Wednesday night possibly bringing another round of elevated PWATs, decent instability, and some thunderstorm chances. Instability trends have decreased from previous model runs, but will continue to monitor for potential of stronger cells. For late week, guidance has trended wetter with mean longwave troughing stagnating between the Great Lakes region and the North Country. This pattern would favor active weather and possibly keeping daily rain chances through the end of the week. With fast flow aloft, any troughs moving through will be moving quickly. Temperatures are expected to remain around seasonal averages with colder air locked well north. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this afternoon, and are expected for most of the forecast period. Dry conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals, with increasing high clouds overnight. A stray shower cannot be ruled out across KMSS or KSLK as a frontal boundary approaches from the west, with some MVFR ceilings possible as well but there is a lot of uncertainty with any flight category reductions. Winds will be relatively light throughout the forecast period, generally less than 10 knots variable, becoming more southerly through the forecast period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Kremer/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Myskowski