000 FXUS61 KBUF 121137 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 737 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008 .SYNOPSIS... OUR STRETCH OF INDIAN SUMMER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD ON TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO BRING US THE CHANCE FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS. A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO NEW YORK STATE WILL SETTLE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT AREA TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY FLIRTING 80 DEGREES. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...WEAK LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP NEARSHORE LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS CHILLY AS THE MAIN CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MAINTAINS A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H5 RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH H85 TEMPS OF +16C KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK JUST A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD LEVELS (BUF 82/1983...ROC 83/1995). THE WARMTH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CROSS THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THIS WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ESSENTIALLY SET THE STAGE FOR A CHANGE INT HE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THE CANADIAN FEATURE WILL ALSO SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN. WHILE H85 TEMPS OF +12C WILL KEEP VERY MILD WEATHER IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL EVEN BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOPWER OR TWO BY DAYS END...BUT THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT OF INDIAN SUMMER. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE IT WILL EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL JUST LOW USE LOW CHC POPS FOR THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME DETAILS... AFTER A STRETCH OF PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER...COOLER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM TUESDAY. THESE WILL STILL BE HIGHER THAN THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COLER WEATHER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESSDAY WITH JUST THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FAST WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS OF +2C OR SO ONLY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. THE NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMAPNIED BY SOME LAKE CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES WHERE LAKE DELTA T`S OF 16 SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL ONLY GO WITH SLGHT CHC POPS THOUGH...AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND ABV H85 WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AVERAGING ABOUT 5K FT. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GERAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO ZERO FOR BOTH DAYS...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S. FAIRLY WIDESPFREAD FROST CAN BE EXPECTED FOR BOTH NIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THE GROWING SEASON IN THESE AREAS THOUGH AS ALREADY ENDED. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY WITH A STEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSION IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. CHANCE OF SOME SHWRS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE VFR. && .MARINE... NO MARINE FLAGS ARE EXPECETD THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND END UP OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...TJP SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...TJP MARINE...RSH