000
FXUS62 KCAE 241126
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEDGE CONTINUES TODAY ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS/T-SECTIONS SUGGEST
MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW. HOWEVER LATEST LAPS/ACARS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WEDGE STRONGER THAN MODELS AT 07Z. CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES WITH SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
NORTHEAST FROM GULF OF MEXICO. FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY SINCE WEDGE POSSIBLY WEAK BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY
SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS INTO EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX. SREF SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF
THE REGION ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE BECOMING MORE SHALLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WITH 850MB FLOW WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. WEDGE FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
AFTER MORNING LOW CLOUDS.MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WARMER
MOS. DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN. NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO UPPER MIDWEST AND
PLAINS STATES MONDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS VIRGINIA INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACRS THE REGION THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE AND
TIME SECTIONS SHOW THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN
08Z-12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$