000 FXUS62 KCAE 100541 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1239 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MID/UPPER FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW AND EXPECT SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS FOR THE AREA. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE AND WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH S/W CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS S/W WILL GRADUALLY PHASE WITH ONE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC/VA CAPES AND DEEPEN WITH TIME. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC/GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A VERY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY THEN BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE CAROLINA/VA COAST. BASED ON LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE...MOS AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA...FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT. BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLDEST NIGHT APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS/LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES. INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO GOOD CHANCE EAST...LOWER CHANCE WEST AND PIEDMONT. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD THE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH DISORGANIZED SURFACE LOW/MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE AS WELL AS THE TRADITIONAL GUIDANCE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEY WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND EXPECT THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 20S. MODELS INDICATE A MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE/NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THICKNESS VALUES ARE CLOSE AS WELL AS WET BULB ZERO VALUES. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY EXIST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL POP FOR THURSDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ASIDE FROM PATCHY SHALLOW FOG AT KAGS/KOGB...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500 FT AND 4000 FT TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR OGB TERMINAL. EXPECT CEILINGS HEIGHTS TO DECREASE AT ALL SITES BY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MORE PROBABLE AT OGB. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FARTHER WEST AT AGS/DNL...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY . A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$