000 AXUS72 KCAE 091533 CCA DGTCAE GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-061 -063-065-071-075-079-081-085-231400- DROUGHT STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1030 AM EST THU FEB 09 2012 ..DROUGHT IS INTENSIFYING ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA... SYNOPSIS... VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GEORGIA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS WITH ZERO TO 5 PERCENT OF NORMAL OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHEAST EIGHTH OF GEORGIA. MORE RAIN FELL ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THERE WERE SPOTS WHERE AMOUNTS WERE AS MUCH AS 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SEE WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/ FOR MORE DETAILS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... THE SOUTH CAROLINA DROUGHT RESPONSE COMMITTEE HAS NOT CHANGED THEIR DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS. SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR 6 COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MODERATE DROUGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN MOST PLACES...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL RISE IN BERKLEY COUNTY OVER THE PAST WEEK BOTH MCCORMICK AND EDGEFIELD COUNTIES SOUTH CAROLINA IN OUR HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA ARE IN SEVERE DROUGHT. REST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDING AIKEN... BARNWELL... BAMBERG...ORANGEBURG...NEWBERRY...SALUDA...FAIRFIELD...LANCASTER... CHESTERFIELD...KERSHAW...LEE...RICHLAND...LEXINGTON...CALHOUN... CLARENDON AND SUMTER COUNTIES ARE IN MODERATE DROUGHT. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF GEORGIA CONTINUE TO BE IN EXTREME DROUGHT WITH EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT EXPANDED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL WILD FIRES IN EASTERN AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS REPORTED BY THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION. ALL ARE UNDER CONTROL BUT ONE NEAR GOOSE CREEK IN BERKLEY COUNTY REMAINS ACTIVE. CHECK WWW.STATE.SC.US/FOREST/SCFIRES.HTM FOR MORE DETAILS. THE KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX CONTINUES TO SHOW VALUES IN THE 400 TO GREATER THAN 700 LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF GEORGIA WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. HIGHER NUMBERS INDICATE GREATER FIRE DANGER. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON FEBRUARY 09 2012 FOR DATA THROUGH FEBRUARY 07 2012 SHOWED THAT EXCEPTIONAL...D4 DROUGHT HAS ENTERED SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. DETAILS... D4...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...COVERS A SMALL AREA OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS AREA TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL BURKE COUNTY IN GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO WESTERN DORCHESTER COUNTY TO CENTRAL COLLETON COUNTY BACK WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA GEORGIA BORDER TO NORTHERN EFFINGHAM COUNTY. D3...EXTREME DROUGHT COVERED MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BACK INTO EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE D4 AREA. EXTREME DROUGHT WAS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN ELBERT COUNTY IN GEORGIA EAST TO FAR WESTERN NEWBERRY COUNTY AND SOUTH BACK TO WESTERN BARNWELL COUNTY AND EAST TO SOUTHERN HORRY COUNTY. D2...EXTREME DROUGHT WAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE D3 AREA...EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY AND FROM CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FAIRFIELD COUNTY TO NORTH CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY TO NORTH CENTRAL ORANGEBURG COUNTY AND NORTH FROM THERE TO NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY TO NORTH CAROLINA. D1...MODERATE DROUGHT COVERED MUCH OF THE REST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NOT IN D4...D3 OR D2 DROUGHT. IT WAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTY NORTHEAST TO EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY TO NORTH CAROLINA AND FROM NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS WESTERN YORK COUNTY EAST TO CENTRAL MARLBORO COUNTY TO NORTH CAROLINA. D0...ABNORMALLY DRY AREAS WERE OVER THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND A SMALL STRIP NORTH OF THE MODERATE DROUGHT AREA IN NORTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA. EXTREME NORTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA WAS DROUGHT FREE. GO TO DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/SOUTHEAST_DM.HTM FOR MORE DETAILS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... THE GROUND WATER NETWORK MAINTAINED BY THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY WAS USED IN THIS REPORT. GROUND WATER CONTINUED TO FALL OVER THE PAST WEEK AT ALL LOCATIONS BELOW EXCEPT FOR BERKLEY COUNTY. A HIGHER NUMBER MEANS A LOWER WATER TABLE AND THEREFORE LESS GROUND WATER. A MINUS DIFFERENCE INDICATES LESS GROUND WATER. BAKER CREEK STATE PARK WELL FEBRUARY 01 2012 41.46 FEET FEBRUARY 08 2012 41.48 FEET DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.02 FEET BERKELEY COUNTY AIRPORT FEBRUARY 01 2012 59.87 FEET FEBRUARY 08 2012 59.82 FEET DIFFERENCE PLUS 0.05 FEET CHESTER COUNTY FEBRUARY 01 2012 90.71 FEET FEBRUARY 08 2012 90.78 FEET DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.07 FEET RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... STREAM AND RIVER FLOWS ON FEBRUARY 09 2012 CONTINUED THE DETERIORATION OF THE PAST WEEK WITH THE SNAPSHOT OF SELECTED GAGES REPORTING 36 PERCENT OF MEDIAN FLOW...DOWN FROM 47 PERCENT OF MEDIAN FLOW LAST WEEK. DETERIORATION CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK WITH NOW 95 PERCENT OF ALL RANKED GAGES REPORTING FLOW IN THE LESS THAN 25 PERCENTILE RANGE WORSE THAN THE 81 PERCENT LAST WEEK. THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAM FLOWS PROVIDED BY THE USGS THROUGH FEBRUARY 08 2012 SHOWED SEVERE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT...LESS THAN 5 PERCENTILE RANGE...PREVAILED OVER THE SAVANNAH...EDISTO AND ASSOCIATED RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...THE BLACK AND LYNCHES RIVER BASINS AND LOCAL BASINS IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PEE DEE...SANTEE...BROAD...SALUDA AND THE CATAWABA RIVER BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL FLOW...BETWEEN 10 AND 24 PERCENTILE RANGE. DATA SOURCE...UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. RESERVOIRS... LEVELS HAVE FLUCTUATED OVER THE PAST WEEK WITH 3 LISTED BELOW REPORTING RISES AND THREE REPORTING FALLS. LAKE RUSSELL LAKE THURMOND FEBRUARY 02 2012 471.63 FEET 322.24 FEET FEBRUARY 09 2012 471.75 FEET 322.34 FEET DIFFERENCE PLUS 0.12 FEET PLUS 0.10 FEET LAKE GREENWOOD LAKE MURRAY FEBRUARY 02 2012 434.67 FEET 356.48 FEET FEBRUARY 09 2012 435.04 FEET 356.44 FEET DIFFERENCE PLUS 0.37 FEET MINUS 0.04 FEET LAKE MARION LAKE WATEREE FEBRUARY 02 2012 74.57 FEET 95.74 FEET FEBRUARY 09 2012 74.49 FEET 95.73 FEET DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.08 FEET MINUS 0.01 FEET NOTE...LAKE LEVELS ARE BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL...RELEASES AND LOCAL POWER DEMANDS. THE LEVEL OF LAKE THURMOND WAS 3.70 FEET BELOW AVERAGE AND THE LEVEL OF LAKE RUSSELL WAS 2.49 FEET BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LEVEL OF LAKE WATEREE WAS 0.17 FEET BELOW THE 95.9 FOOT TARGET LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS AND DUKE ENERGY. CLIMATE SUMMARY... PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 01 2012 THROUGH FEBRUARY 08 2012 STATION PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PERCENT OF NORMAL COLUMBIA SC 1.77 INCHES MINUS 2.79 INCHES 39 PERCENT AUGUSTA GA 1.41 INCHES MINUS 3.55 INCHES 28 PERCENT ORANGEBURG SC 1.79 INCHES MINUS 2.98 INCHES 38 PERCENT PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 01 2011 THROUGH DECEMBER 31 2011 COLUMBIA SC 36.62 INCHES MINUS 7.97 INCHES 82 PERCENT AUGUSTA GA 29.43 INCHES MINUS 14.14 INCHES 68 PERCENT ORANGEBURG SC 37.40 INCHES MINUS 9.33 INCHES 80 PERCENT COMBINED RAINFALL DEFICITS FROM JANUARY 01 2011 TO PRESENT SHOW DEFICITS BETWEEN 10 AND 18 INCHES. PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... CURRENT FORECAST OUT TO 7 DAYS... THE FORECAST OUT TO 7 DAYS SHOWS CONTINUED THE DRY WEATHER AHEAD. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FROM FEBRUARY 16 2012 TO FEBRUARY 22 2012 CALLS FOR A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SIXTH OF GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE REST OF THE AREA HAVING EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM FEBRUARY 16 2012 TO FEBRUARY 22 2012 CALLS FOR A 33 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SEVEN EIGHTS OF GEORGIA AND ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE REST OF THE AREA HAVING EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE FEBRUARY 2012 CALLS FOR A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE FEBRUARY 2012 CALLS FOR A 33 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHEAST THREE QUARTERS OF GEORGIA WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF GEORGIA. THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY...MARCH AND APRIL OF 2012 CALLS FOR A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THE THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY...MARCH AND APRIL OF 2012 CALLS FOR A 33 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. GO TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB PAGE AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV IN LOWER CASE LETTERS FOR MORE DETAILS AND THE LATEST OUTLOOKS. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... THE LACK OF THE ANNUAL WINTER RAINS COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAS CAUSED DROUGHT INTENSIFICATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS HAVE NOT CHANGED THOUGH WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF MID TERM...AS INDICATED BY THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...BUT THE SHORT TERM AND THE LONG TERM OUTLOOKS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. THUS THE DROUGHT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MAY CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY FEBRUARY 23 2012 UNLESS SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCUR. RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UL.EDI/DM/MONITOR.HTML NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV NWS COLUMBIA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAE/DROUGHT.PHP SC FORESTRY COMMISSION...WWW.STATE.SC.US/FOREST/SCFIRES.HTM ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LAKE INFORMATION: NWS...HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS USACE...HTTP:/WATER.SAS.USACE.ARMY.MIL/HOME USGS...HTTP://WWW.USGS.GOV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICE...THE USDA...USACE...DUKE ENERGY AND THE USGS. QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2909 AVIATION WAY WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170 PHONE: 803-822-8135 INTERNET ADDRESS W-CAE.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ LAMBERTY