000 FXUS61 KCAR 072022 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 322 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM FRONT CURRENTLY XTNDS FROM LOW PRES JUST N OF THE GRT LAKES SEWRD ACROSS NYS AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... CLDS ASSOCIATED W/ THIS WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING NRN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING MUCH OF OUR FA. A FEW LGT RTRNS NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS WRN/NWRN MAINE BUT MUCH OF THIS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE SFC W/ VRY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOS AS EVIDENCED BY TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NRN MAINE. XPCT THIS WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVE THEN COULD SEE THE CLD COVER BRIEFLY THIN OUT/CLR BEFORE CLDS W/ THE FOLLOWING WEAK COLD FRONT OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TNGT. THIS RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA ERLY SUNDAY W AND BE E OF THE FA BY NOON. WILL CONT TO ADVERTISE LOW SLGT CHC POPS W/ THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FAR N LATE TDY/THIS EVE W/ LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE N LATER TNGT INTO ERLY SUN AHEAD OF AND W/ THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT. XPCT CLRG SKIES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDS ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THE AIRMASS TO FOLLOW IS RATHER MILD SO TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW VS TDY... W/ THE LACK OF STRONG CAA TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...NOT XPCTG MUCH IN THE WAY OF THE USUAL SC CLDS ACROSS THE N WE TYPICALLY SEE FOLLOWING STRONGER COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR... && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AND CREST OVER THE STATE MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. FOR SKY...POP AND QPF HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND NAM ALONG WITH SREF FOR POP. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POP. FOR WIND WILL USE GMOS. THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS APPEAR REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS ALL BY ITS SELF FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A LOW OVR ERN ME/WRN NB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT EXTEND BACK TO THE SE THROUGH CAPE COD. THE FRONT MVS THROUGH AND THE LOW MVS E BY 12Z AND THE CWA IS IN WRAP AROUND PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. THE GFS...HAS THE SAME LOW OVR CNTRL ME WITH A 2NDRY LOW ON THE COLD FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK. A 3RD LOW WHICH WOULD BE THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE IDA OVR THE FL PANHANDLE. BY 12Z THE REMNANTS OF IDA MVS THE THE ERN SEABOARD ALONG NJ DEEPENS AS IT GETS INTO THE GULF STREAM WATERS. BY 00Z THURS THE REMNANTS OF IDA DEEPEN TO A MAJOR LOW IN THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATER EAST OF CAPE COD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN DRIFTING TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 36HRS 12Z ON FRI. AT THIS POINT THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AGREE A HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS AGREEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED BY 00Z SAT THE GEM/ECMWF MV A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS ENOUGH VARIBILITY IN THE GUIDANCE THAT I DECIDED TO TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH. LOADED THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR WED THROUGH FRI. LOADED GMOS GUIDANCE FOR FRI THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD. FOR SEAS USED NAWAVE10 FROM PREVIOUS RUN. BASED ON VARIBILITY OF THE MODELS FELT THAT THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: XPCT MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU SUN THO COULD SEE CONDS LOWER TO LOW VFR SUN AM ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES AHEAD OF AND W/ A WEAK COLD FRONT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE TO KEEP CONDS JUST BLO SCA TNGT AND ERLY SUN BUT SECONDS THOUGHTS WON OUT... FEEL MINIMAL SCA IS JUSTIFIED FROM LATE EVE THRU MID AM SUN IN STRENGTHENING SW LOW- LVL FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT XPCTD TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN AM. SHORT TERM: HAVE USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS. FOR WAVES WILL USE WNA/4. ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR WAVE MODEL WILL BE TO KEEP MINIMUM WAVE HEIGHT AT 2 FEET DUE TO FAIRLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...KHW SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...KHW MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE