000 FXUS61 KCAR 060815 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 415 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2009 .SYNOPSIS... AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MARITIMES EARLY TODAY AND AWAY FROM THE REGION...ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND APPROACH THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF DAMP AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEEK...BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE DAMP WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY/SFC CONVERGENCE ZN CURRENTLY LIES NNW-SSE ACROSS FAR NERN MAINE W/ SFC LOW PRES NOTED JUST S OF JAMES BAY ATTM... SKIES MOSTLY CLDY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE W/ CLR TO P/C SKIES ACROSS THE SRN HALF... A FEW LGT SHOWERS ALSO NOTED ACROSS NERN AREAS ATTM... AS ONE LOW PRES EXITS THE REGION ACROSS THE MARITIMES ERLY TODAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO YET ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM TAKING AIM ON THE AREA JUST S OF JAMES BAY ATTM. A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BNDRY/SFC CONVERGENCE ZN XTNDS BACK ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE DEPARTING LOW E OF THE AREA WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT IS NOTED ACROSS WRN QUEBEC ATTM ASSOCIATED W/ THE LOW S OF JAMES BAY. THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS XPCTD TO DROP SEWRD TODAY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER ON. XPCT THE CWA TO BE SPLIT TODAY W/ ERN AND NERN AREAS MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LGT NERLY STABLE FLOW WHILE THE WRN AND SWRN AREAS SHOULD BCM INCRSGLY AFFECTED BY THE COLD POOL OF AIR LOFT ASSOCIATED W/ THE COLD UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE DRIVING THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NW. AS A RESULT...XPCT MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO WORK INTO THESE WRN AND SWRN AREAS TODAY W/ MODEL CAPES FCST TO BE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS BY LATER THIS AFTN... WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS ERN AND NERN AREAS TDY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED W/ THE WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY AND WILL CARRY HGHR CHC POPS WRN AND SWRN AREAS ALONG W/ MENTION OF TSTMS. SOME TSTMS COULD PRODUCE SM HAIL AND GUSTY WNDS GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING AS WELL. SYSTEM IS FCST TO SETTLE INTO SWRN QUEBEC TNGT AND WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE ENTIRE FA TNGT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WARRANTS THE MENTION OF SLGT CHC TSTMS AT LEAST THRU THE EVENING HRS ALL AREAS TNGT AND W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE AVBL...THE THREAT OF PTCHY FOG LATER TNGT EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... H5 LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SLOWLY DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE DURING TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SE BLYR FLOW IN PLACE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY THUNDER TUESDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE EVIDENT. H5 LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTYH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND SE WINDS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... H5 LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR CONDS AT OUR 3 NRN TAF SITES W/ VFR CONDS ACROSS THE SRN SITES ATTM... XPCT MVFR TO PERSIST THRU THE ERLY AM HRS ACROSS THE N AND W/ CIGS ALREADY DOWN TO 1000 FT AT KCAR...THE THREAT OF SOME ERLY AM IFR CIGS EXISTS AS WELL ACROSS THE N. FOR OUR SRN TAF SITES...XPCT VFR TO PERSIST THO FOG AND A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SPCLY AT KBHB WHERE T/TD SPREADS HAVE VARIED BTWN 0-1 DEGREE LAST FEW HRS AND SKIES CURRENTLY P/C W/ LGT WNDS. IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE N XPCT TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY THIS AFTN W/ PRIMARILY VFR CONDS XPCTD ACROSS THE SRN SITES THRU THE DAY. XPCT CONDS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LATER TNGT AT ALL THE SITES AS THE ENTIRE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED WX PTRN ASSOCIATED W/ THE NXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOIST SE FLOW IN PLACE. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THU/FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU THE NEAR TERM PERIOD... SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KHW SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...KHW MARINE...KHW/DUDA