000 FXUS61 KCLE 231755 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1255 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY BUT QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND UPDATE CLOUD COVER. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. RAIN LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE RADAR...BUT ONLY GETTING A FEW HUNDRETHS ACROSS SOUTERN OHIO AND KY. WILL JUST LEAVE CHC POPS GOING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SURFACE OBS AND REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS ERN KY AND WV AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDING FROM ILN AND PIT IT LOOKS LIKE THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF DRIER AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. DO HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR EARLY TONIGHT BUT STILL ONLY CHANCE FOR LACK OF COVERAGE PURPOSES. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE A GOOD START TO TEMPS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL RISES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS WHILE NORTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKESHORE COULD TOP OUT WARMEST SINCE THEY WILL BE LAST TO GET INTO THE CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS BACK THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT GOOD CLEARING WITH THE HIGH WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LACK OF GRADIENT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF AIRMASS EXPECTING TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO LOWER 50S ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INDICATING HIGH CHC ACROSS THE WEST...TOL-FDY WITH STILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW WITH BRINGING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE POPS STILL SHOWING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO LIKELY AS GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WED...AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50. THINKING THAT MAY NOT BE UNREASONABLE WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SINCE MIN TEMPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ARE GOING TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 40S. CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS ON THURS AS GFS ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODELS ALSO RATHER CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSHING IT OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. CONTINUED TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AND CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PULLING OUT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. GEM REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD SEEM MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. A DEEPER TROUGH WOULD PROVIDE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERIC AND WAIT FOR MORE CONFIDENCE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK. TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING OUT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION INCLUDING LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THEN NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO GUIDANCE WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THAT WE WILL HAVE A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND A THREAT OF SNOW. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROF MOVING ACRS THE AREA WAS BRINGING SOME SHRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WL MOVE N ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES...AND THIS SHOULD AFFECT CLE FROM AROUND 20-23Z. AFTER THE UPPER TROF AND SHOWERS MOVE OUT TONIGHT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VIS TO THE AREA. ERI WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THESE CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW. SHOULD ALSO SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD BASES LOWER. SHOULD BE SOME IFR VISIBILITIES ALSO IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CLE...OTHERWISE MVFR VIS IN BR IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY LOW CEILINGS...WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY EVENING. LOW CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL LOW VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. && .MARINE... THE EAST WIND ON LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT WAS STRONGER THAN I WOULD HAVE THOUGHT BUT AS THE GRADIENT VEERS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THE WIND AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TODAY AND REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET ON TUESDAY. THE SOUTH WIND WILL PICK UP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONGER COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A PERHAPS A GALE WARNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE NEAR TERM...ABE/DJB SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...WJM MARINE...KOSARIK