000 FXUS61 KCLE 121104 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 704 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE INTO THE TOLEDO AREA IS CAUSING SOME FOG. AT THIS TIME AREAS OF FOG SHOULD HANDLE IT...NOT PLANNING ON A FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE COULD BE SOME CIRRUS BUT IT WILL BE VERY THIN AND PATCHY. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD BE GOOD. ANY LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW MILES FROM LAKE ERIE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH TODAY. CAN`T SEE THEM BEING ANY COOLER THAN TODAY...THE THICKNESS GOES UP A LITTLE...THE T1 TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 2C HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. ON THE SATURDAY THE MET NUMBERS WERE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS BETTER IN THE EXTREME EAST. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL GO A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY FOR THE HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS. SOME CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR. MONDAY WITH SOME CIRRUS WILL FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WILL GO WITH 30 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THERE IS SOME OMEGA. AT THIS TIME CONTINUING THE THREAT OF THUNDER BUT IT DOES LOOK WEAK. CONTINUED A 30 POP CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...DEFINITELY IFFY. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND THE MODELS AGREE BUT THE GFS IS SLOWER...SO TIMING ISSUES. STILL SO FAR AWAY WILL KEEP 30 POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE GRIDDED MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...WARMEST WEST AND COOLER EAST. ON MONDAY THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO COOL OFF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES. I LIKE THE NAM TREND WITH THE WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE FRONT AND SOME CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE GRIDDED MOS LOOKS GOOD. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE TOUGH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN BUT THE MOISTURE NOT REAL HIGH SHOULD BE SOME SUN...NOT AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND...WENT CLOSER TO THE MET MOS NUMBERS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GRIDDED MOS AND THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOR THURSDAY WILL HAVE 20 POPS EASTERN AREAS EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN BECAUSE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AT LEAST 14C. THURSDAY NIGHT IS TOUGH WITH SOME MUCH RIDGING AND A LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF 17C ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS AND SOME VORTICITY IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME MUCH RIDGING WILL GO WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRIDDED MOS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE COOLING FORECAST ALOFT AND THE QUESTION HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS THERE WILL BE. FORECAST FOR FRI AND SAT IN QUESTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AMONG GFS AND ECMWF. ALTHOUGH MODELS SIMILAR ON FRI WITH UPPER TROUGH DROPPING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IN/IL AREA FRI NIGHT...BY SAT GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN KICKING UPPER TROUGH EAST OF AREA ALONG WITH MOISTURE WHILE ECMWF HOLD BACK UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE. BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER LEVEL FEATURE IS EAST OF AREA ON SAT SO EVEN IF ECMWF RIGHT SHOULD JUST SEE LIGHT SCT SHRA DRIVEN BY UPPER INSTABILITY OVER RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE CONDITIONS. BEST PLAY FOR NOW LOOKS TO BE IN KEEPING SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA IN FORECAST FOR THE FRI THROUGH SAT PERIOD WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE SNOWBELT PART OF AREA AS CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TYPE OF PATTERN FAVORS THIS AREA. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. FOG AT TOL WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF SCT CIRRUS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. COULD SEE MORE PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND TOL LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR THRU PERIOD. HOWEVER...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA LATER TUE THAT MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY CAUSE FURTHER DISRUPTIONS IN AIR TRAFFIC. && .MARINE... AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NY SETTLES SOUTH INTO WESTERN NC TODAY INTO TUE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS AND VEER FROM MAINLY SE TO SW BY THEN. FLOW MAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS TUE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND GETS EAST OF THE LAKE SHOULD SEE FLOW KICK TO MAINLY NW THU. WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING OVER THE LAKE COULD SEE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP BUT FOR NOW MODELS ONLY GOING WITH ABOUT 15 TO 18 KNOTS AT MOST WHICH WOULD PROBABLY ONLY MEAN 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...ADAMS