000 FXUS61 KCLE 091136 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 636 AM EST THU FEB 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FOR 630 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY IN MANY PLACES WHERE CLOUDS PERSISTED MOST OF YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO STAY DRY ENOUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NW CORNER NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE WORST CASE. AN INCREASING SW FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEST WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES CENTRAL AND EAST. BY LATER FRI NIGHT THE THERMAL PROFILE BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN. HOWEVER...THE WINDS...ANTICYCLONIC LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED DEEPER MOISTURE ARE NOT FAVORABLE. THUS...LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN LOCAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS SO MAY JUST NEED AN ADVISORY AT MOST IF THE MODELS ARE ON TRACK. A TROUGH EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUN TO ENHANCE THE SHSN AS A LITTLE MORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. COLDEST AIR SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE FOR SAT WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 20 DEGREES. LAKE EFFECT SHSN SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF SUN NIGHT AS CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH WARMER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MODELS AGREE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION STARTS MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN THE DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS...THE GFS IS QUICKER. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEST TO EAST RIDGE FROM IL THROUGH CENTRAL OH WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AIRMASS WAS DRY ENOUGH AND WITH A LITTLE WIND...NO FOG DEVELOPED AND EVEN THE STRATUS WAS EXTREMELY ISOLATED. A LITTLE CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT JUST A FEW TENTHS ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY WAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... THE QUESTION TODAY IS DO WE NEED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AND CONTINUE FROM THAT DIRECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THE WAVES WILL NOT MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER...THE WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS...GOING MORE WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS...THUS NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EXTREME WEST END. THE WAVES WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND THAT MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. THE WINDS MAY TRY TO PICK UP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TA SECONDARY TROF/FRONT MOVES IN...BUT WITH MAINLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION THE THREAT OF GALES SEEMS LOW. WILL LOWER THE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS AND THE NEXT SHIFT WILL MONITOR THIS. EARLY IN THE WEEK...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND THAT MAY MEAN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. FOR MID WEEK THE SOUTHWEST FLOW DECREASES. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ144>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA