000 FXUS64 KCRP 241129 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 529 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION. && .AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COT-VCT AREA BTWN 12-13Z AND LRD...ALI...CRP BETWEEN 14-16Z WITH STRONG N WINDS DVLPG IN ITS WAKE. SCT TO NUM SHRA`S AND A FEW TSRA`S ARE EXPECTED AHD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH RESIDUAL -RA BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH S TX...CONDITIONS WILL VARY GREATLY FROM IFR TO MVFR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THRU LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SKIES CLRG AND WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND CONTG INTO WED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...VERY WEAK ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE S CWA INDICATING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FARTHER OFFSHORE BEYOND THE MARINE ZONES...TSRA`S HAVE DVLPD AND ARE MVG NE. AM EXPECTING SCT TO NUM SHRA`S AND A FEW TSRA`S TO DVLP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES S INTO S TX. CURRENTLY THE CF IS LOCATED NEAR AUS TO NEAR DRT AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE NRN CWA AROUND 12Z THEN REACHING THE COAST BETWN 14Z TO 16Z. GFS SHOWS INCREASING CAPE AND DECREASING CIN THIS MORNING AHD OF THE BDRY...HOWEVER...THE UPPER JET IS FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA AS WELL AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND APPROACHING S TX WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE. THEREFORE THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT AND INTO THE 850MB LEVEL WITH THE 850MB WIND SHIFT LAGGING BEHIND BY A COUPLE OF HOURS PER THE GFS SOLN. GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...AM EXPECTING MAINLY SHRA`S WITH A FEW TSRA`S OVER THE INTERIOR CWA...THEN TSRA ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS DUE TO LARGER CAPE VALUES/BETTER INSTABILITY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST...RIDGE WILL BLD ACROSS THE AREA AND USHER IN DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS. POPS ARE TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE N BEHIND THE BDRY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. AS SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA THE WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVER THE LAND BUT REMAIN STRONG OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. CLRG SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE CAA FROM THE N WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS COOL MX TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES ON WED. MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THEN DIMINISHING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BAYS...HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BLD TO 7 TO 9 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WED AFTERNOON. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A MID/UPR RDG AXIS WL BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS WL ALLOW SVRL S/WVS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO AFFECT THE CWA. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WL THICKEN THROUGH FRI AS A RESULT OF A STEADY STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE CWA. WE WL LKLY LKLY SEE SOME VIRGA AND EVEN SOME SPRINKLES DEVELOP ON FRI DUE TO THE MID LVL FORCING AND THICK MID-LVL MOISTURE. SINCE THE LOW LVLS WL STILL REMAIN QUITE DRY DUE TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC RDG AXIS REMAINING OVER THE CWA...WL HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR FRI. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THICKENS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN WL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE NEXT ISSUE WL BE THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NOGAPS SOLN REMAINS THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF SOLNS IS THE SLOWEST. FOR NOW...WL LEAN TWDS THE GFS SOLN WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE NOGAPS BUT STILL INDICATES A PROGRESSIVE L/WV TROUGH AXIS MOVING SEWD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. WL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUN NIGHT DURING THE TIME OF FROPA. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FNT REMAINS IN QUESTION. SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS STILL EXPECTED AS 850 TEMPS DROP TO AT LEAST 2-5 DEGREES CELSIUS BY MON AFTN/EVE. WL SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WL LEAN TWDS THE LOW ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON MON GIVEN THE STRONG CAA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 72 47 69 45 71 / 70 10 0 0 0 VICTORIA 66 39 67 38 69 / 70 10 0 0 0 LAREDO 67 47 71 50 74 / 50 10 0 0 0 ALICE 70 43 70 43 73 / 70 10 0 0 0 ROCKPORT 71 50 68 47 70 / 70 10 0 0 0 COTULLA 65 41 70 38 72 / 40 10 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 72 47 69 43 72 / 70 10 0 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 73 53 67 50 70 / 70 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM MB/80...LONG TERM