000 FXUS64 KCRP 100541 AAC AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1141 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...EXPECTING CIGS AND/OR VSBYS TO REACH LIFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL BUT KCRP WHERE MVFR (TEMPO IFR IN ANY SHRA) WILL OCCUR. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELD (SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE) AND LOTS OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WATER ON GROUND. COULD GO AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT KVCT AND KALI AND 1SM AT KLRD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AOA 15Z ONCE THE DRIER AIR STARTS TO MAKE PROGRESS BEHIND THE FRONT (GRADUAL WIND SHIFT). CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AOA 18Z WITH PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS AROUND 11 KNOTS OR SO. CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHTER WINDS AFTER SUNSET...AS CIGS (IF ANY ARE ABOVE 12 KFT). FINALLY...THUNDER UNLIKELY TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT DID INCLUDE SOME PROB30 SHRA AND/OR VCSH AT KCRP AND KALI...WITH SOME CATEGORICAL -RA/SHRA BEFORE 10Z THEN TEMPO/CATEGORICAL SHRA 10Z TO 19Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOUTH TEXAS MAY BE GETTING MORE ON UNFAVORABLE SIDE OF UPPER JET AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PUSHES TO THE EAST. AS A CONSEQUENCE...AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED BUT HAVE ONLY LOWERED POPS A TAD MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST BUT KEPT AT LEAST 50 POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO OBSERVED OR A BIT TOO HIGH ALREADY SO ADJUSTED SOME. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS. FINALLY...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES REACH THE SAME NUMBER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SECOND PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN EXITING THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH VISBYS DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS BEING CAUSED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREA WIDE TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ALSO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS FORECAST SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT SUCH EMBEDDED ACTIVITY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AND ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THEN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DIRER AIR IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PERSIST. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...START OF LONG TERM PERIOD TO BE DRY WITH REINFORCING EFFECTS FROM 1042MB HIGH BUILDING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST THE MID AND LOWER LAYERS WILL DRY OUT RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE FOR LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTURE SUFFICIENTLY FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE SO HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. BEST LIFT AND OMEGA PROG TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME WHERE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR THOUGH ALMOST ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. DISTURBANCE PULLS TO THE EAST LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY THUS ENDING OUR RAIN CHANCES. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MON MORNING AS ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT SYSTEM THAN GFS. ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE BECOMES WNWERLY WHICH SHOULD SCOUR OUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS BRUSH COUNTRY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REDEVELOPS BY TUES NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST. GFS BRINGS STRONG DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FRONT THROUGH AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST WHILE ECMWF BARRELS A CUT OFF H5 LOW TOWARDS TEXAS AND KEEPS CWA MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SOME PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES WILL NOT GET TOO DETAILED WITH POP PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME AND WILL PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE GIVEN RECENT MODEL BEHAVIOR ISSUES. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THEN BECOME WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER PREVENT ANY DIURNAL RISE. TEMPS TO THEN QUICKLY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOW 80S BY TUES/WED AS AIRMASS DRIES OUT. MAX/MIN NUMBERS STRONGLY RESEMBLE RAW GFS/ECMWF VALUES FOR MOST PERIODS DUE TO ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 53 67 47 63 52 / 30 40 10 10 20 VICTORIA 51 63 41 61 39 / 50 50 10 10 20 LAREDO 51 68 48 65 49 / 20 10 10 10 30 ALICE 51 66 46 64 49 / 30 30 10 10 20 ROCKPORT 53 65 49 61 50 / 30 50 10 10 20 COTULLA 48 67 43 62 44 / 20 10 10 10 20 KINGSVILLE 52 67 47 64 52 / 30 40 10 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 56 66 51 62 52 / 30 40 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM PZ/83...LONG TERM