000 FXUS61 KCTP 240053 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 753 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD UP IN THE LOWER 15KFT OF THE ATMOS. DESPITE THE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL...ALMOST EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA IS GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS. LIKELY TO CATG POPS WILL BE GOOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF LATE...BUT NOT BEFORE MOST GET WET. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...AND MAY NOT MOVE DOWNWARD MORE THAN A DEG OR TWO FROM CURRENT READINGS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY LEFT OVER DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE LACK OF INSOLATION...HIGHS STILL CONTINUE TO BE ABV NORMAL IN THIS MILD AIR MASS...AVERAGING IN THE L/M50S. IT WILL REMAIN MILD AND CLOUDY TUES NIGHT IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. I TRIMMED POPS BACK TO A BLEND OF THE DRY GMOS AND VERY WET SREF POPS. QPF LOOKS PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE AS BEST FORCING WILL HOLD OFF TIL MID WEEK OR EVEN THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VEERING SLY LLVL FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS/OCNL DRIZZLE LOCKED IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY ON WED AS MSTR ASCENDS THE CNTRL MTNS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FCST SNDGS AND HI RESOLUTION NAM/WRF DATA. A LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME SCT SHWRS LATER WED AFTN INTO EARLY WED NGT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A DEEP ERN TROF EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH A ACCOMPANYING COASTAL LOW LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH REGARDS TO COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PD. THE LARGE SCALE CYC FLOW SHOULD ALSO MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO A POSSIBLE DYNAMIC COOLING/PTYPE CHANGEOVER /FROM RAIN TO SNOW/ SCENARIO THUR NGT-FRI AS 500MB HEIGHTS CRASH AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD OR SOUTH OF PENN. HAVE INDICATED RAIN OR SNOW FOR NOW IN THE GRIDS WITH POPS IN THE 50-60PCT RANGE. HIGH PRES IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD PROVIDE IMPROVING CONDS AND A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYS MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONSID MVFR TRENDING IFR CIGS FOR PA AIRFIELDS...THEN REMAINING AT IFR CIGS THRU AT LEAST 12Z TUE. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHRA ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER SOME PRECIP THIS EVE WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SFC AS THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DRIES THE NEAR SFC CONDITIONS. VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT TO ARND 1-3SM AND PERSIST THRU 12-14Z. ATTM GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST MIXING WILL IMPROV CONDS VERY FAST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO IFR TO MVFR CONDS THRU AT LEAST 19Z FOR MOST AIRFIELDS IN CENTRAL PA...ESP JST/AOO/UNV/IPT. OUTLOOK... WED...MVFR/IFR IN PRE-FRONTAL SHRA THU-FRI...MVFR WITH CHC -SHRASN. SAT...MVFR TO VFR. SLT CHC -SHRASN && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...BEACHLER