000 FXUS63 KDDC 050741 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 241 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... PRECIP CHANCES AND THE EFFECT ON TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE. 00Z UPPER AIR OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS, WITH WV LOOP INDICATING A EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THROUGH CO/WY THIS MORNING. SAID SHORTWAVE WAS HELPING TO SET OFF A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN KS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS ALSO INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN CWA, WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. MAIN COLD FRONT WAS STILL UP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEB/NORTHEASTERN CO AS OF 07Z. NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PUSHING THE FRONT DOWN TOWARDS THE OK BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING BY AND THE FRONT COMING DOWN, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SO CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS WE HAD GOING. WITH THE FRONT MOVING DOWN, MOST OF THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE PANHANDLES. THINK THAT OUR ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY NOT BE SEVERE, ALTHOUGH THE FAR SOUTHWEST COULD SEE SOME HAIL WITH THE NAM SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN, AND THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. 850MB TEMPS GET DOWN TO AROUND 10 C IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWERED HIGHS THERE A FEW MORE DEGREES, ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH COULD GET INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH UPSLOPE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KS. WITH THE SFC FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH, THE NAM AND GFS SET UP THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE OK BORDER. 700MB DEFORMATION IS VERY GOOD, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS AND ANOTHER WEAK VORT LOBE MOVING THROUGH, WILL BUMP UP POPS A TAD TO LIKELY IN THAT AREA. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S DESPITE CLOUD COVER. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY, AND THE FRONT SHOULD START LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH A BIT BY AFTERNOON. IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF IT WILL GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OR NOT, BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE VORT MAX MOVING BY SHOULD TAKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH IT, SO THERE WILL BE LESS RAIN COOLING. STILL, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S, AND IF THERE IS MORE RAIN THAN EXPECTED IT COULD BE EVEN COOLER. SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AGAIN, SO CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. DAYS 3-7... LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING COOL TEMPS INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE MEAN TROUGH. THE WAVES COULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING SOME WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S. THEN THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST IN PUSHING ANOTHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND DELAYED. HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION AND MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .AVIATION... LOOK FOR MAINLY MFVR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO 00Z SATURDAY. AFTER 00Z MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH POSSIBLY IFR CIGS BY 12Z SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 66 51 68 55 / 60 60 40 30 GCK 66 50 68 52 / 60 40 40 30 EHA 71 49 71 55 / 40 40 20 30 LBL 72 51 71 56 / 50 50 40 30 HYS 65 51 68 54 / 70 30 30 20 P28 75 56 71 61 / 60 60 60 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN26/06/06