000 FXUS63 KDDC 100924 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 324 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012 A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL TIGHTEN ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO BE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT SHIFTING NORTH WINDS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT BECOME SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WITH A WARM NOSE PRESENT AROUND 700-800 MB FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME AREA. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. I HAVE TAKEN OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT IF THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE MOIST LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DUE TO MODELS NOT HANDLING THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. I HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WITH FORECASTED HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KS/OK AND KS/CO BORDER WHERE LOWER TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER TEENS SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012 HE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED IS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS. FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER WAVE WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ADVERTISED IN NEARLY EVERY MODEL YESTERDAY, WAS NOW SLOWER AND IN THE FORM OF A MUCH MORE OPEN WAVE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. SO WILL ONLY CARRY FLURRIES FOR SUNDAY, AND AM NOT TOO SURE THERE WILL ANY FLURRIES AT ALL. CLOUDS WILL ABOUND, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, THERE WILL JUST NOT BE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR SNOW. ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THAT TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. AND COULD GENERATE A LITTLE SNOW IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. FOR NOW, 35 PERCENT POPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST POPS AND THAT WILL BE JUST ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN-MOST ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION, SO KEPT THE SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER A HALF INCH. THE LARGE WAVE WILL STALL JUST EAST OF OUR CWA MONDAY, AND A LITTLE RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS OR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WHERE 20 POPS WILL EXIST MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST, AND RANGE DOWN TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE HAYS AREA. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE PRECIP-FREE AND NEARLY CLOUD-FREE, AND RELATIVELY WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS, WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA, AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO BE EJECTED NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH, AND WILL TRAVEL EAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE WE SHOULD HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S (S) BY THE TIME THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LIFT ARRIVES IN WESTERN KANSAS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS. THESE LOW 20 PERCENT POPS WILL EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT AS SNOW CHANCES VS RAIN. AGAIN, THE SUPPORT FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LACKING, AND IS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH. ON THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A LIGHT UPSLOPE, EASTERLY FLOW , SO LOW 20 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 0.02 INCH. THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT NEAR KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE FA WITH KHYS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 12-22KT AROUND 07Z AND THEN KGCK AND KDDC BY 10 AND 11Z RESPECTIVELY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH WINDS PICKING UP TO 15-25KTS AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES COULD ALSO BEGIN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 31 8 21 11 / 0 10 10 10 GCK 33 10 21 10 / 10 20 20 10 EHA 43 12 22 14 / 0 10 20 10 LBL 40 12 22 13 / 0 10 10 10 HYS 26 7 19 8 / 10 10 10 10 P28 33 9 23 10 / 0 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...06