000 FXUS63 KDDC 230932 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 332 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... DENSE FOG CONTINUED TO BLANKET THE AREA FROM WAKEENEY AND HAYS SOUTHEAST THROUGH LARNED AND ST JOHN EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUD ENHANCEMENT LOOPS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW THAT THE FOG HAS BEEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS. FARTHER WEST VISIBILITIES HAVE STAYED UP IN THE 3-5 MI RANGE AROUND GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY...POSSIBLY IN PART DUE TO A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE WINDS AND A FAIRLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. WILL EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE KPTT-KP28 FOR NOW. 00Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. INTERESTINGLY...THE UKMET HAS EARLIER TENDED TO DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM THE FARTHEST SOUTH BUT THE LATEST RUN LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS NOW FARTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS UPDATE. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WITH THIS MODEL HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS IN THE NORTH BUT DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAXIMIZING DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THE MODELS KEEP THE UPPER SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO THINK THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY MORNING. DAYS 3-7... THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON WED, A RATHER VIGOROUS TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE. THE GFS/EC HAVE FLIP FLOPPED NOW WITH THE GFS BEING FURTHER WEST AND COOLER THAN THE EC. NEVERTHELESS, THE BULK OF ANY COLD AIR GOES BY WELL EAST OF US (AND NOTHING HINTS OF ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP) AND THUS WON`T BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR SW KANSAS. FRI AND SAT STILL LOOK TO BE DOMINATED BY S/WAVE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AS ONE TROF MOVES INTO THE NE CONUS AND ANOTHER COMES ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER OVER KANSAS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A DECENT FROPA IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR SAT NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. THIS FROPA CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS WELL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASED AMPLIFICATION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AND A TENDENCY TOWARD SOME SORT OF ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION INTO THE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THIS AIR MIGHT GET. THE GFS IS NOW MUCH COLDER THAN THE EC FOR NEXT WEEK (WHICH IS A FLIP FLOP ON THE PART OF THE EC). JUST TAKING THE MODELS AT FACE VALUE, WE COULD HAVE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING NEXT MONDAY (GFS) OR HIGHS IN THE 40S (EC). ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IN SUCH A PATTERN. THE EC IS NOW DRY THROUGH 240HR OVER KS BUT AM NOT INCLINED TO BELIEVE A HUGE FLIP FLOP LIKE THAT. STILL THINK THERE EXISTS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF A PRECIP EVENT BUT FAR TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO PICK A MODEL AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE ON THE COLD/DRY SIDE OF NORMAL. -WRIGHT && AVIATION... WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR FOG THIS MORNING. KHYS IS ALREADY SOCKED IN WITH LIFR VIS/CIG AND TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS ARE LESS THAN 2 DEGREES AT BOTH KDDC AND KGCK WHICH MAKES THEM VULNERABLE TO A RAPID DECENT INTO LIFR. THINK A SMALL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS KEEPING CONDS AT KDDC/KGCK FROM DECLINING BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO SSE BY 23/12Z WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCING LIFR CONDS. AM LEANING TOWARD LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY 23/12Z AND WILL UPDATE TAFS TO REFLECT THAT. LEE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL INTENSIFY AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO COLORADO LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE GRADIENT WITH WINDS AND MIXING INCREASING WHICH WILL WIPE OUT ANY REMAINING FOG BY 23/18Z. EXPECT STRONG FROPA AT ALL TERMINALS WITH WINDS GOING TO NW BY 24/00Z. -WRIGHT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 52 29 49 24 / 10 10 10 0 GCK 49 27 47 22 / 10 10 0 0 EHA 52 27 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 54 29 51 24 / 0 10 0 0 HYS 49 31 46 25 / 40 40 10 0 P28 59 34 52 28 / 10 20 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031- 046-065-066-081-090. && $$ FN02/34