000
FXUS63 KDMX 100920
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
320 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ADVANCING ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BRING BREEZY AND 
MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS DIRECTLY BEHIND 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 
LATE THIS MORNING BUT MAY LINGER IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT 
FORECAST DRY AS UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS SHOW NO FLURRIES 
REACHING THE GROUND. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS 
TEMPERATURES. IN OUR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE 
CURRENTLY NEAR FREEZING...WHILE IN OUR NORTHWEST THEY HAVE ALREADY 
FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UPSTREAM IN 
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE 
DIGITS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS 
CLOUDS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...AND MOST OF 
OUR AREA WILL SEE BEGINNING OF PERIOD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT 13Z. THUS 
HAVE TAKEN A BEST GUESS AT A 13Z TEMPERATURE GRID FOR HIGHS AND GONE 
WITH NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND 
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.  
THIS COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO 
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT.  
THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH 
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY 
SUNDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE 
TRANSITION IN THE UPPER FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY WILL OCCUR BY EARLY 
NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED NEAR SURFACE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS RETURN OF 
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.  INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT 
WILL SPREAD CLOUDINESS INTO THE STATE WITH DEEP SATURATION OCCURRING 
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA.  SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD 
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THIS TIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE 
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS THE LIFT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO 
THE EAST.  FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY ON MONDAY EVENING 
AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER 
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST.  AT THIS POINT...ACCUMULATION ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN 
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS 
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 
DAYTIME READINGS CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.  GFS 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE 
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE EURO REMAINING 
DRY.  HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS 
TIME BUT ANY AMOUNTS THAT MAY OCCUR APPEAR LIGHT AT THIS TIME.  

&&

.AVIATION...10/06Z
MVFR CEILINGS ONLY REMAIN AT KALO...AND WILL SLOWLY PULL EASTWARD. 
MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE APPROACHING FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND 
BEHIND BOUNDARY...REMAINING STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. IN 
ADDITION...LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL COME WITH BOUNDARY. COULD SEE 
POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT ENOUGH 
CONFIDENCE THEY WILL AFFECT TAF SITES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
AVIATION...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL