000
FXUS63 KEAX 051728
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...


.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 701 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/

MAKING SOME SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENT TO AFTERNOON POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
MINI MCS MOVING TOWARDS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. ACTIVITY IS
STRONGER WITH GREATER COVERAGE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. 06Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF ONGOING KS CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
STILL A TAD SLOW. 06Z NAM 700MB SHOWS A STRONGER AND BETTER
DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF EASTERN CO THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY
IS ALL ELEVATED AND SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS IT CONTINUES EAST AND
PULLS AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE PRESENT AT 700MB AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE TO SUPPORT
EXTENDING CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE WESTERN CWA AND ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING FOR THUNDER OVER SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MJ

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY HINGED ON A WEAK MID-LVL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE REASON WHY THIS PRECIP IS STRUGGLING...AS SIGNIFICANT
MID-LVL DRY AIR INTRUSION IS KEEPING MUCH OF THE RAIN FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SPRINKLE...OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH 21Z.
THIS RAIN WILL POSE LITTLE THREAT FOR AVIATION PURPOSES AND WILL ONLY
INCLUDE VCSH FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WANT TO BRING
FOG INTO THE TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING. NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS IDEA
EITHER AS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID-LVL CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND TO
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. WILL ALLOW EVENING FORECASTER TO REEVALUATE AND
ADD TO TAFS AT NEXT ISSUANCE. ALSO...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRA ACTIVITY MID-MORNING SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM.

DUX

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$