000 FXUS66 KEKA 100447 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 850 PM PST THU FEB 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA AS A FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. && .UPDATE...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. RAIN IS QUICKLY EXPANDING OFFSHORE AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...AND THUS TWEAKED WITH PRECIP MENTION FOR TONIGHT. EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WELL OFFSHORE EARLIER...BUT NO TSTMS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED ATTM. JCA && ---------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---------------------- .DISCUSSION...THE 18Z NCEP SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR 38N138W LIFTING TO THE NE WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH NW CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DEPOSIT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MENDOCINO COUNTY WILL BE SPARED THE BULK OF THE PRECIP, WHILE DEL NORTE WILL TAKE THE BRUNT. MID TO HIGH LEVEL PRECIP IS BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON ON A NNE TRAJECTORY WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD TRANSLATION. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ON SAT. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGING WILL BE WEAK AT BEST AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SOME SHORT WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE RIDGE. THAT TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT. ON THE FLIP SIDE, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OUT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS SUCH INCREASED POPS TO 100% FOR SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL COOL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 3500FT, CAUSING MOUNTAIN SNOW. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MODELS FALL OUT OF AGREEMENT QUICKLY, BUT WITH BLURRED EYES A RIDGE CAN PICKED OUT FOR TUE THROUGH THU. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL THREATEN TOWARD WEEKS END. BEING SO FAR OUT THOUGH, STUCK WITH CLIMO POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. BFG && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THE AREA CURRENTLY. SAT PICTURE AND HPC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. THIS IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE APPEARS TO BE A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE SHORTLY AFTER 0Z BRINGING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER EXPECT CIGS WILL GO UP WITH INCREASED MIXING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START BETWEEN 07 AND 09Z ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY COAST. THIS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. MKK && .MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY STARTING TO INCREASE THIS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT PEAKING TOWARDS MORNING AROUND 25 KT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN MOVES INTO THE WATERS. IN ADDITION A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT...BUILDING TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FEET AT 12 SECONDS TOMORROW. THESE TWO SWELLS WILL KEEP SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THEY FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW 10 FEET. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 11 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT ON MONDAY NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL IN QUESTION...BUT MOST MODELS HAVE THEM ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE GALES IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS DROPS THEM OFF MORE QUICKLY. TRENDED THEM DOWN TOWARD THE GFS...HOWEVER WOULDN'T RULE OUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PZZ450-455-470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV