000 FXUS64 KEPZ 050939 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 331 AM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURN THE WINDS FROM THAT DIRECTION. THE DRYING TREND THAT BEGAN ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE UP FROM MEXICO AND GIVE MUCH OF THE BORDERLAND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH. CONTINUED DRYING TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH PW`S RANGING FROM .5 - .8 INCHES AND WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION TODAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE EASTERN CWA AS PW`S AND INSTABILITY HIGHEST THERE. BY SUNDAY THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF BY BUILDING OVER MEXICO THIS TURNS UPPER WINDS AROUND TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND MID LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTH. GFS SHOWING THESE MID LEVEL WINDS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE IN. PW`S WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT .8 - 1.2 INCHES. AIRMASS BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE DUE TO THIS SO LOW POPS EVERYWHERE LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. REMAINDER OF PERIOD MAY SLACKEN A BIT...THOUGH TROPICAL FEATURES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RIGHT NOW THE GFS HAS THE UPPER HIGH BLOCKING THIS MOISTURE TO OUR WEST BUT COULD CHANGE. && .AVIATION...VALID 05/12Z-06/12Z... VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLD CB/TS PSBL 18Z-03Z WITH BRIEF MVFR...MOSTLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND POSSIBLY HUDSPETH COUNTY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND A DRYING TREND TO THE AREA. ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVNG CB/TS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. OVERALL LIGHT SFC WINDS AND FAIRLY GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 91 68 93 69 92 / 5 0 0 0 10 SIERRA BLANCA TX 88 63 90 62 89 / 10 10 0 0 10 LAS CRUCES 92 65 93 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 ALAMOGORDO 89 65 91 65 89 / 10 10 10 0 10 CLOUDCROFT 69 45 70 46 71 / 10 10 10 0 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 89 65 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 SILVER CITY 83 57 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 DEMING 90 64 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 LORDSBURG 91 64 94 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 17 HEFNER