000 FXUS64 KEPZ 092237 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 337 PM MST THU FEB 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER TO END THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SENDS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING NEAR NORMAL...AS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TEMPORARILY FOLLOWS OVER THE REGION. PATTERN WILL CARRY ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS THE MAIN THREATS FOR US. && .DISCUSSION... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WELL ADVERTISED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A FAST MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OUR WAY OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS 25-35 MPH DOWN WEST FACING SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS WILL PRESENT THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR MOTORISTS TRAVELING WITH HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON I-10 BETWEEN EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FOR FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TEMPORARILY MOVES OVER FROM THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. APPROACH OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL OPEN US TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. 12Z SREF...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW IMPROVED AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND DEPTH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR US. IN ADDITION...MORNING GFS RUN HAS SCALED BACK ON DEVELOPMENT OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH FOR SUNDAY...WHICH FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS MORNINGS EUROPEAN SOLUTION. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN STRENGTH OF SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD OVER HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF TONIGHTS TROUGH. CONSIDERING THIS...HIGH WILL BR TOUGH TO ERODE IN SUFFICIENT TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO OUR WINDS SUNDAY. BOTTOM LINE...THIS IS THE REASON I HAVE KEPT WINDS DOWN TO BREEZY CATEGORY AT WORST...FOR SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO MITIGATE EFFICIENT MIX DOWN OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AT THAT TIME. PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON SOUTHERN LOWLAND POP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS WELL...AS MOST OF ATTENDANT SYSTEM ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF US. AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DECLINES SIGNIFICANTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION DEVELOPING ANOTHER CUT OFF FEATURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE GFS CARRIES THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTHEAST OVER US. HAVE LEFT EXTENDED FORECAST ALONE FOR MOST PART DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE. && .AVIATION...VALID 10/00Z-11/00Z. AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST. FEW-SCT 060 120 250 AGL. WINDS 29010G20KT BECOMING 0300-8G15KT AFT 06Z WITH ISOLD G 30KT WEST SLOPES/PASSES. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MINOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25% TO 35% RANGE MOST AREAS EXCEPT NEAR 50% IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND 30% TO 35% FRIDAY EXCEPT NEAR 45% IN THE SACRAMENTOS. THE HAINES INDEX WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 3 CATEGORY THURSDAY AND 2 TO 3 ON FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 38 58 38 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 33 55 35 63 42 / 10 0 0 0 10 LAS CRUCES 36 58 34 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 35 59 33 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 10 CLOUDCROFT 19 43 20 45 27 / 10 0 0 0 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 58 32 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 32 51 33 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 31 60 32 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 33 58 33 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 22/20 TRIPOLI/NOVLAN