000 FXUS64 KEPZ 241004 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 304 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT IT WILL COOLER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE BORDERLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE COLDER WEATHER ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ADVECTING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. THUS HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER. SPLIT FLOW WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE WEST THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERLY BRANCH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES. TO THE SOUTH A VERY BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. OVERALL EXPECT THE RIDGE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TO PREVAIL WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF MEXICAN LOW WILL LIKELY TRANSPORT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS FINALLY SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT ON SCENARIO FOR WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY WITH AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS AND ATTENDANT DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH SYSTEM COMPARED WITH GFS AND CANADIAN BUT OVERALL EXPECT AT LEAST COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES. DESPITE LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM WILL ALSO INTRODUCE MENTION OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS TO MUCH OF THE CWA AS STRONG PVA AND DYNAMIC LIFT ENHANCED BY 120 KT JET MAY INDUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF PRECIP. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AREAS OF MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 5000 FEET AGL...ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN FACING SLOPES. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 MPH THIS MORNING BEFORE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CAUSING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN MOSTLY HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED LACK OF PRECIPITATION. A FEW RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 60 33 63 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 58 27 60 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 59 30 63 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 57 28 60 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 45 15 48 18 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 27 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 55 23 58 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 59 29 62 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 60 29 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 05 ROGASH