000 AXUS74 KEPZ 172242 RRA DGTEPZ NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO 1015 0330 PM JANUARY 17 2011 ...A WIDESPREAD SPECTRUM OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXTENDS FROM EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OVER THE FAR EAST PORTIONS OF THE BORDERLAND TO MODERATE DROUGHT OVER THE FAR WEST PORTIONS... ...A LA NINA ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT... SYNOPSIS... LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUED DURING DECEMBER 2011 WITH BELOW AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN REMAINING NEAR -1.0C BELOW NORMAL INDICATING A WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA CONDITION. BELOW NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 80W TO 150E LONGITUDE. CURRENTLY...LA NINA IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS IN SEPTEMBER 2010 AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SO. AT THIS TIME THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS PREDICT THIS LA NINA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN PLACE AFTER APRIL OF 2012. DESPITE LA NINA CONDITIONS ENTRENCHED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...MUCH OF THE BORDERLAND EXPERIENCED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING DECEMBER WITH SOME AREAS OF GRANT COUNTY RECEIVING NEAR RECORD RAINFALL OF OVER 2 INCHES IN 2 DAYS DURING A SINGLE STORM EVENT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS IN JANUARY REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE FACT LA NINA WAS IN PLACE...A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE ALOFT ALONG 110W LONGITUDE CHANGED THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS AND MORE PRECIPITATION THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND VICE VERSA FOR THE NORTHERN TIER STATES... REVERSING AT LEAST TEMPORARILY THE CLASSIC WINTER LA NINA SIGNATURE FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THIS RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN GIVING WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AND THUS A RETURN TO MORE CLASSIC EL NINA SIGNATURES. LA NINA CONDITIONS INDICATE TRENDS AND AVERAGES OVER SEASONS SO ONE ANOMALOUS MONTH MAY NOT NECESSARILY DOMINATE THE STATISTICS. EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D4) CONTINUE OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH...SOUTHWESTERN OTERO AND SOUTHEASTERN DONA ANA COUNTIES WHILE EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS OVER WESTERN HUDSPETH AND EL PASO COUNTIES AND EASTERN DONA ANA COUNTY. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST BASICALLY FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH MODERATE DROUGHT WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS FORECAST THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST MORE OR LESS THROUGH APRIL 2012. THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FORECASTS OUR CURRENT DROUGHT TENDENCIES TO NOW PERSIST THROUGH FEBRUARY 29, 2012. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GIVES MOST OF THE BORDERLAND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH APRIL 2012 ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ALONG WITH EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES OF FAR WEST TEXAS. VIEW THESE FORECASTS AT HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/FORECAST.HTML IMPACTS... D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES. D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS. D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT. D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED. D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR. RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE... HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER... HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 7955 AIRPORT ROAD SANTA TERESA NM 88008 PHONE...505-589-4088 DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO $$ NOVLAN