000 FXUS62 KFFC 050901 AAA AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAIN FEATURE THIS CYCLE IS HANNA. NGM/GFS/NAM/SREF ALL HANDLE HANNA DIFFERENTLY AS FAR AS TRACK WITH THE GFS/SREF CLOSER TO TPC`S TRACK AND WILL LEAN STRONGLY WITH THE GFS. A NARROW SLIVER OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV REMAINS OVER ALABAMA AND THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST UNTIL HANNA MOVES INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF WILMINGTON. AS HANNA MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST...THE CIRCULATION WILL WRAP THE MOISTURE OVER ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND WILL GO WITH LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY HANNA HAS MOVED WILL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THIS WILL KEEP US DRY. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE 1 TO 5 DEGREES TOO WARM...AS WAS VERY EVIDENT FOR YESTERDAY (GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO HANDLE AN EASTERLY FLOW IN SUMMER TOO WELL). WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER CUT GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS WHILE WE HAVE AN EAST FLOW. THEN AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WILL STICK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THICKNESS TRENDS. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHICH WAS THE FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE CWA BEHIND HANNA...REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING THE RISK OF A SHOWER OR T-STORM EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. AFTER WARDS THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF IKE. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH TPC`S TRACK WHICH BRINGS IKE INTO SOUTHERN FL AND THEN BACK OUT TO SEA. THE ECMWF TAKES IKE SOUTH OF FL AND THE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. OBVIOUSLY THERE IS A GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE TODAY WITH GENERALLY 4000-6000 FT SCATTERED CU. BEST CHANCES FOR CEILINGS ARE N AND W OF ATL. CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE CLOSE TO AHN AND MCN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS ENE INCREASING AROUND 10 KTS. BDL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 88 65 89 67 91 / 10 10 30 10 5 ATLANTA 86 68 86 69 88 / 10 10 30 10 5 BLAIRSVILLE 80 60 84 61 86 / 5 10 20 10 10 CARTERSVILLE 87 62 87 63 88 / 10 20 20 10 5 COLUMBUS 88 70 90 70 92 / 5 10 30 10 10 GAINESVILLE 84 65 86 67 88 / 5 10 30 10 10 MACON 88 69 90 70 94 / 20 10 10 10 10 ROME 89 65 88 65 89 / 10 20 20 10 5 PEACHTREE CITY 87 63 87 64 89 / 10 10 30 10 5 VIDALIA 88 73 92 74 91 / 30 30 10 5 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 17