000
FXUS63 KFGF 100254 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
854 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS WELL THROUGH THE REGION AND WINDS
ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH...STILL
EXPECT SPEEDS AOA 10 KNOTS MOST PLACES THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. THIS LEAVES MIN
TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS AS THE MAIN CHALLENGES. INCOMING GUIDANCE
AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED. SPS STILL THE BEST PRODUCT FOR
EXPECTED WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING (AS MOST WINDS CHILLS WILL
REMAIN WARMER THAN -35F). 

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ 

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WILL STICK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT
TERM TODAY AS WILL BE UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE.

TONIGHT...INTERESTING AND DIFFICULT FORECASTING THE TEMP CURVE
TODAY. THE FAR SOUTH HAS WARMED TO AROUND 40F WHICH WAS QUITE A
BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS HAVE STEADIED OUT AND FALLEN A
LITTLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE FAR NORTH IS ACTUALLY SEEING A
LITTLE SUN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THERE ARE MORE HIGHER CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BUT THEY ARE MUCH THINNER THAN THOSE GOING
THRU NOW. BEST PUSH OF WIND IS GOING THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY NOW
AND THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS THE AMOUNT OF TEMP DROP
PROBABLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WINDS SLACKEN OFF OVERNIGHT. MODELS
TRY TO KEEP A STEADY 10+ KNOTS OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM PITTING OUT. HOWEVER IF WINDS
DROP OFF FASTER TEMPS COULD ALSO FALL MORE. LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
READINGS...START TO APPROACH THE -30F OR SO MARK LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AND
BECAUSE DO NOT HAVE A STRONG FEELING FOR WHAT WINDS WILL DO
OVERNIGHT WILL RE-ISSUE THE SPS FOR HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS AND LET
LATER SHIFTS MONITOR.

FRI-SUN...SFC HIGH MOVES CLOSER DURING THE DAY FRI WHICH SHOULD
HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS DOWN. STILL DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF SNOW COVER
AND ARE EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF SUN. THEREFORE WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE LARGE SPREADS IN TEMPS OVER SHORT DISTANCES
AGAIN ON FRI. SFC HIGH BUILDS DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND FRI
NIGHT. GENERALLY GET COLDER TEMPS UNDER THESE SCENARIOS BUT WITH
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH BEING FURTHER WEST COULD KEEP A LITTLE
MORE GRADIENT OVER THE FA. EVEN SO LOOKING AT APPROACHING MARGINAL
EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA AGAIN. SFC HIGH DIVES TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOTS OF SUN AND
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT MIN
TEMPS SAT NIGHT TOO. MODEL GUIDANCE WARMING THINGS UP BUT IT HAS
BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD SLOWLY...SO IT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
THERMAL PROFILE IS WARMER BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN AND CLEAR
SKIES COULD GET GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN.

LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-THU)...
A CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED
IN THE LONG TERM...WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF 
IS SLOWER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A WAVE ON SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH
A DRY AIRMASS NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A WAVE DOES EJECT OUT OF THE SW 
MID WEEK...GIVING THURSDAY A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW IN MY 
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG