000 FXUS63 KFGF 051516 AAA AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1016 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR MODIFICATIONS...AND MAINLY TO TIMING THE PCPN BAND MOST EVIDENT ON RADAR. THIS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST NORTH OF KTVF...AND IT APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING ON RADAR. THIS IS THE BEST VORTICITY CENTER TO PROVIDE LIFT THIS MORNING...SO AS THIS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTH-NE THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT A BREAK IN PCPN FOR MOST AREAS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. ANOTHER UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAX APPEARS A BIT LESS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE MODELS BRING THIS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY COLD 500MB TEMPS IN PLACE... THIS COULD REGENERATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH). PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS IDEA IN PLACE. ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD FILL UP WITH CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A LOT OF CLOUD COVER FOR ALL AREAS TODAY AND A LIMITED TEMP RISE. && .AVIATION... IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER (KDVL/KGFK/KTVF) DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT REMAIN BELOW 3000FT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/ SHORT TERM...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PRESENT A CHALLENGE AS THEY WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. 00Z MODELS INITIALIZED PRETTY GOOD AND IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. WILL USE A BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR DETAILS CONSIDERING PAST PERFORMANCE A BIT BETTER. MID-CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE WAVES IN MAINLY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AND BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TODAY AND SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TIMING. NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER...BUT MODELS DO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL KEEP ISOLD THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TODAY...KMVX SHOWING AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NW MN. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE FA BY 18Z. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW ADDITIONAL (BUT WEAKER) WAVES UPSTREAM. CONSIDERING 500MB FLOW...THINK BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG THE N FA AND PLACED HIGHEST POPS (50) HERE...WITH ISOLD POPS (20) ACROSS THE S FA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 60F...AND MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE...WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY (2-3F) TO NEAR 60F. WEAK SFC RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP TO THE NE FA FRI NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SAT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS ON SAT AND WILL BLEND WITH CURRENT FORECAST. NEXT WAVE SPREADS PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE REGION FROM W TO E BY LATER ON SAT AFTERNOON AND INTO SAT NIGHT. USED GFS TIMING FOR PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST (50) POPS. ALSO SPREAD THESE HIGHER POPS SOUTHWARD. MODELS SHOWING AN ADDITIONAL WAVE FROM THE PAC NW WHICH WILL RIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE FA AND INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUN AFTERNOON...BUT IF TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT MUCH OF SUN AFTERNOON MAY BE DRY. SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY SUN NIGHT. LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH PLACING MID-CONUS TROUGH E OF THE FA BY MON. WEAK RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUE. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. NO CHANGES NEEDED. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ GODON