000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250346
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
COLD...CLEAR NIGHTS...THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED.
FAIR WEATHER DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS ARE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY.
AS MENTIONED BELOW...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WITH THE
18Z GFS MUCH DRIER WHILE TODAYS 12Z EC WANTS TO BRING SOME MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THROUGH TUCSON AND THEN WRAP IT INTO THE LOW SATURDAY
EVENING. TONIGHTS 00Z ETA IS IN AND SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE
EC SOLUTION. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS NOT BEEN GOOD W/
RESPECT TO THIS WEEKENDS WX SO STAY TUNED.

PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN AREA OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVER NEVADA WILL DRIFT OVER
ARIZONA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE DEWPOINT IS UP TO 13 DEGREES LOWER THAN
IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE SAME THAT THEY WERE THIS MORNING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES MAY KEEP A
FEW SPOTS WARMER.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A SLOW DAYTIME WARMING TREND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO FALL ON FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA ON SATURDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COLDER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GFS AND EC
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND
HAVE LEFT POPS LOW FOR NOW...LESS THAN 20 PCT. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVERS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 40S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
MONDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

MAS


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................DL
AVIATION...............DL

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.