000
FXUS65 KFGZ 100300
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
800 PM MST THU FEB 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES BRING
UNSETTLED AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND GIVES WAY TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

ON SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH NRN AZ
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
MOST FAVORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE STATE MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PCPN IS INCREASING FOR THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME. THE STORM SYSTEM IS FAIRLY COOL AND HAS A GOOD
MOISTURE TAP SO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC-SCT150 MSL 
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS N-NE 10-20KT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 
MOGOLLON RIM. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
 
&& 

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&
$$

PUBLIC............DB/OUTLER 
AVIATION..........DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.