000
FXUS65 KFGZ 042144
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
244 PM MST THU DEC 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DENSE LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT...BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AGAIN TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CLOUDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH NOT TO INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING MUCH AT ALL...SO EXPECTING ANOTHER SEASONABLY
COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS
WILL BRING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT BEST.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE AFFECTED BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF
THIS LOW. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW TO THE EAST...JUST BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE
CURRENT ECMWF MODEL RUN BRINGS A DEEPER LOW ACROSS THE STATE WITH
MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE GFS HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS THAN THE ECMWF...SO I AM
LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER SCENARIO FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...WE CAN
EXPECT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AT THE VERY
LEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT BKN/OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DECREASING OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DDV
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.