000
FXUS63 KFSD 100441
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012


.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 845 PM CST/
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND FLURRIES TONIGHT. 
WITH FLURRIES RECENTLY BEING REPORTED IN NORTHERN SD AND RADAR 
PICKING UP ON SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY VIRGA APPROACHING 
OUR NORTHWEST BORDER...DID SLOW DOWN THE SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION OF 
THE FLURRIES BY A FEW HOURS. ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE DIURNAL COOLING  
THIS EVENING WITH STRONG MIXING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT 
HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT.  STRONGER PUSH OF COLD 
AIR...EVIDENT IN THE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN NORTH 
DAKOTA RIGHT NOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
PROJECTED LOWS NEAR 0 TO 10 DEGREES STILL LOOK GOOD.


&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
MVFR CEILINGS 2-3K FEET REMAINING OVER SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST 
AREA AT 06Z WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR QUICKLY SOUTH BY 09Z...EXCEPT 
PERHAPS LINGERING A COUPLE HOURS LONGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST 
CORNER. ISOLATED FLURRIES WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. VFR NORTH 
WILL COVER ALL OF THE AREA BY 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 11/06Z WITH 
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR AT AND BELOW 12K FEET. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS TO 
25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER AREA FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL ABATE 
AFTER 21Z. / WILLIAMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 230 PM CST/
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA 
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLAM INTO THE CWA BETWEEN ABOUT 1Z AND 7Z 
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A BAND OF STRATUS TO FOLLOW THE 
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN MAINLY CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT 
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS MAIN 
FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND DRY AIR QUICKLY 
FILTERS IN. KEPT TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
THIS EVENING THEN HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES BEHIND 
THE FRONT OVER ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS. BY FRIDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES 
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO 10 TO 15 ABOVE 
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM NEAR 
20 BELOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO NEAR 5 BELOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL 
SOUTH DAKOTA. 

NOT MUCH RECOVERY IN STORE ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG AND COLD HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS. THIS IS A 
PRETTY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT WITHOUT 
SNOW COVER EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOUT 6 TO 10 DEGREES WITH 
SOME DAYTIME SUN. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER DAYS EVER 
WITH NO SNOW ON THE GROUND...SINCE THE LATE 40S THE COLDEST HIGH 
TEMPERATURE IN SIOUX FALLS WITH NO SNOW ON THE GROUND IN MID 
FEBRUARY IS 10 ABOVE...WITH THE FORECAST AT 13. ONLY SINGLE DIGITS 
EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT NEAR 20 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH 
DAKOTA. /08 

ALONG THOSE SAME LINES...WITH SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH 
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...LIKELY TO SEE 
SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY. COLDEST 
LOW TEMPS IN SIOUX FALLS WITH NO SNOW ON THE GROUND THIS TIME OF 
YEAR ARE IN THE -6 TO -8 RANGE. WILL STAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THIS 
FOR NOW...AS WINDS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN 5-10MPH RANGE THROUGH THE 
NIGHT ALONG/EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. COLDEST OF LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES 
EAST/MODERATES ON SATURDAY...AND SHOULD SEE FAIR MIXING IN WEST TO 
NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO 
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.

SLOW MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERN AREAS AWAY FROM NEBRASKA 
SNOWPACK BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 FOR 
SUNDAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL 
AGAIN BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA 
STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS WAVE MOVES 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME CONCERN AS TO HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP 
WILL SPREAD GIVEN BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE WAVE PASS TO OUR SOUTH... 
SO WILL KEEP POPS IN LOWER-MID CHANCE RANGE WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A 
LITTLE MEASURABLE SNOW IN NORTHWEST IOWA. 12Z GFS SHOWING ANOTHER 
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION MIDWEEK...WHICH IS A NORTHWARD TREND 
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SEEING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM 
OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS...OR FROM MOST OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS...SO WILL LEAVE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$