000 FXUS64 KFWD 091159 AAB AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 559 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .AVIATION... ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE ON SATELLITE DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...A BROKEN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED FROM KGDJ /GRANBURY/ AND KLUD /DECATUR/ EAST TO KDTO /DENTON/...KDFW...AND KCPT /CLEBURNE/. AREAS OF 2-5 MILE FOG HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO BKN019 IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. FOG AT WACO HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 2 1/2 MILES. HAVE KEPT 2-3SM BR WITH A TEMPO BKN015 IN THE WACO TAF THROUGH 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE THIS MORNING. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...AND WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR BY 10Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 58 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN COOLER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT SOUTHERN BAJA CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO HAVE DIMINISHED WITH TONIGHT/S DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. NORMALLY...WHEN CLOSED UPPER LOWS REACH SOUTHERN BAJA... THEY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY...PINCH OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. THEN MERGE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS NOW THE CASE WITH THIS UPPER LOW. THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS THE BAJA UPPER LOW SENDS PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD OVER RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE BAJA UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN THE WEST COAST AND PICKS UP THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW. AS THIS MERGED SYSTEM NEARS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...NEITHER THIS SYSTEM NOR TO PREVIOUS ONE HAVE A RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE OR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL (MORE THAN AN INCH) OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A THIRD SHORTWAVE IN THIS SERIES WILL SWING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PUSH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS...OR THURSDAY PER THE ECMWF. SINCE THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTH TEXAS...WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION DUE TO SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF NEXT WEEKS UPPER FLOW. ALSO...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO ADVANCING DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A 110-130 KNOT 300MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. 75 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 54 44 55 35 49 / 5 60 50 10 5 WACO, TX 55 42 57 37 54 / 5 60 50 10 5 PARIS, TX 51 41 54 31 48 / 10 50 50 10 5 DENTON, TX 53 40 54 33 47 / 5 60 50 10 5 MCKINNEY, TX 53 41 54 32 48 / 5 60 50 10 5 DALLAS, TX 54 45 55 35 50 / 5 60 50 10 5 TERRELL, TX 53 42 55 34 49 / 5 60 50 10 5 CORSICANA, TX 56 44 57 37 52 / 5 60 50 10 5 TEMPLE, TX 56 44 57 39 55 / 10 60 50 10 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 53 43 53 34 51 / 10 60 40 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 58/75