000 FXUS65 KGGW 100350 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 850 PM MST THU FEB 9 2012 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALL DAY ARE NOW BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THOSE CLOUDS ARE MEETING UP WITH A LINE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT EXTEND THROUGH HAVRE...LEWISTOWN...WINNETT AND BILLINGS. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF EVENING FLURRIES THROUGH MALTA...JORDAN AND GLENDIVE. WITH CLEAR SKIES THE NORTHEAST ZONES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. FORRESTER PREVIOUS SHORT TERM... THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT BROUGHT NORTHEAST MONTANA ITS FIRST ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN QUITE SOME TIME IS CURRENTLY STALLED OUT ACROSS PETROLEUM COUNTY. STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE TREASURE STATE...WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES FALLING OUT OF IT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE BULK OF THE FLURRY ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING PUSHING SOUTHWARD. TONIGHT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...EVENTUALLY INTERACTING WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THIS INTERACTION WILL DRIVE STRATIFORM SNOWFALL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST...MAINLY PETROLEUM COUNTY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS PETROLEUM COUNTY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING AN INCH OR TWO DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP BAND. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMALS...ESPECIALLY UNDER CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. FRIDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHEAST UNDER THE DEEPER ARCTIC AIRMASS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT BUT A FEW TICKS COLDER UNDER THE LINGERING ARCTIC HIGH. BY SATURDAY THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AND MOVED FURTHER INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMALS AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS HOLDS ON FOR ONE LAST DAY. GILCHRIST .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CANADA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES KEEPS NE MONTANA UNDER A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK VARIABLE WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS CHANGE WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT ACROSS MONTANA ON TUESDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER. THE LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING OTHER THAN FLURRIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH A WEAK PATTERN...FEW BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MOST CHANGES WERE BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR ENHANCED BORDER COORDINATION. SCT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN LEAVES NE MT WITH CONTINUED DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. MOST MODELS SHOW SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...BUT NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT. GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. PRECIP THREATS FOR THE LONG TERM APPEAR FEW AND ARE VAGUE. AFTER THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT FORMS OVER NE MT SUNDAY...BUT LACKS MOISTURE. WITH THE SPLIT MORE PROMINENT THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR TUE/WED. THUS POPS FOR ANY 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM ARE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. THE AIRMASS WON'T CHANGE MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...SO NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION FROM DAY TO DAY. THIS FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN ALSO RESULTS IN WINDS LESS THAN NORMAL. SIMONSEN && .AVIATION... MVFR STRATUS WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. ALL TERMINALS BUT KGDV SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT AND THIN TO LOW VFR INTO MIDNIGHT. KGDV ITSELF MAY HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING TO VFR BEFORE MORNING. NORTH SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVENING THEN BECOME EASTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SCT/GAH && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW