000
FXUS63 KGID 051655
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS QUICKLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. AS
OF AROUND THE NOON HOUR...RAIN SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM
WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH JUST THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY SPRINKLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DECREASED TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER SOME AREAS
DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND ONGOING TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AT THE
KGRI TERMINAL BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA...SCATTERING OUT AROUND 8000 FT AGL BY THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008/

DISCUSSION...AS GENERALLY EXPECTED...A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA. THE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING...
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 305K...AND LOOSELY INFLUENCED BY FAVORABLE
JET STRUCTURE THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONTINUED WITH HIGH RISK FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY. THE EASTERN CWFA WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST TO SHARE
IN THE RAIN SOME INITIALLY DRY AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK/ZERO FOR NEARLY ALL THE CWFA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWFA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GOODLAND AREA. WHILE I AM NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT ADDING A STORM RISK...THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL
OUTSIDE SHOT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD GET CLIPPED BY A STORM OR
TWO. SUCH AN IDEA SEEMS GO ALONG WITH NEARBY/NEIGHBORHOOD THINKING
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH.

TO ME...THIS LOOKS LIKE A 9 TO 12 HOUR EVENT...AS THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ENDS BY 21Z FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. TAPERED RAIN CHANCES OFF
AFTER 21Z ALL AREAS...AND ONLY KEPT A VERY SMALL RISK FOR AN
EARLY EVENING SHOWER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA.

WITH LITTLE CONTINUITY FROM THIS FORECASTER...WAS RELUCTANT TO MAKE
BIG CHANCES TO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...DESPITE MORE RECENT MODELS
RUNS POINTING TOWARD SOME NEEDED CHANGES. DID START AN INCREASE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY...AS NAM IS POINTING TOWARD A BROAD
AREA OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ENHANCED BY A SURGING JET
STREAK NOSING INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY. ONCE THAT PASSES...SUNDAY
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS THE CWFA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MONDAY IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING WETTER AS ONE MORE WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE
CWFA. ALL THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN THE NEXT RUN COMES THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
COLD ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF TEMPERATURE
REBOUND IN THE WESTERN AREAS IF THEY CAN CLEAR OUT A BIT BEFORE
THE EVENING HOURS. ANYWAY...SATURDAY IS ALSO LOOKING COOL AS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION COME INTO PLAY. LOWERED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY BACK TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$