000 FXUS63 KGID 100505 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1105 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAF. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA CONTINUING TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. WINDS NOW OUT OF THE NORTH...WHICH WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. STRATUS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTH ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL STICK AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHEN THOSE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS DIMINISH. SOME KEEP IT WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OTHERS HAVE IT GONE BY MID MORNING. AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY IT TO MIDDAY AND KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ UPDATE...ADDED SOME FLURRIES FOR LATE TONIGHT. A SOLID AREA OF STRATUS IS HEADED OUR WAY WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. ALSO...SREF PAINTS SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SWINGING THROUGH AS WELL AS THE WRF. RAISED HOURLY TEMPERATURES A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS WELL AS WIND SPEEDS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST THU FEB 9 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE FINALLY SHOWING AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE CLOUDS AND FOG THAT HAVE PLAGUED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW OF THE EASTERN LOCATIONS MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE GONE AND THERE ARE CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. THROUGH THE PERIOD THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING THE CLOUDS. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES TONIGHT. A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL. LONG TERM...STARTING 00Z SATURDAY. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL IF NOT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 70-80KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION PROMOTING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA...AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS OUR EXTREME WEST/SOUTHWEST AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AND TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE APPEAR AS THROUGH THEY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC HAVE BOTH BACKED OFF ON LIQUID PRECIPITATION HOWEVER...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING NO MORE THAN 0.1" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST MOST LIKELY TO PICKUP PRECIPITATION. WENT AHEAD AND RELEGATED THE HIGHEST POPS TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH LIQUID PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE OF 15:1 SNOW-WATER RATIOS...WHICH COULD PRESENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CERTAINLY NOTHING SIGNIFICANT...BUT SOMETHING TO CONTINUE MONITORING AS THE STORM SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER. AN OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING WILL THEN PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPACTS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION APPEAR VERY WEAK WITH THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM AND THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH -20 SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE COLD LOW LEVEL AIR MASS SETTLING INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...ADO UPDATE...HEINLEIN SHORT...JCB LONG...BRYANT