000
FXUS65 KGJT 050940
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 AM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING ACROSS NW COLORADO
EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AND MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...NOT MUCH WEATHER HAS OCCURRED EXCEPT FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER OBSERVED ON THE MT WERNER AWOS (K3MW).  BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE...MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS MINIMAL THIS MORNING AND
WEAK WARM ADVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON.  MODELS NOT SHOWING
ANY INSTABILITY ANYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA.  WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR THE PARK RANGE GIVEN 300 MB 75 KNOT JET.  IF NOTHING
ELSE...A FEW CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS NW COLORADO.  THE SOUTH AND
ERN UTAH WILL STAY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM.

ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES NW COLORADO WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS.  THE 300 MB JET WILL HAVE RETREATED NORTH INTO WYOMING AND
NOT EXPECTING ANY OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DAY TO
DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A DISTURBANCE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS MAINTAIN A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOME MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS STILL TIMING THE UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT OVER MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH POPS MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
THE ECWMF LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
THE GREAT BASIN.  THE LATEST GFS HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE DEPTH
OF THE DAY 7 TROUGH.  MUST BE TRANSITIONING TOWARD THE WINTER SEASON
AS MEDIUM MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW MORE DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM.....PF
LONG TERM......MPM/PF
AVIATION.......TGJT