000
FXUS65 KGJT 240300 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
759 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AS SNOW WINDS
DOWN. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL HANG ON ALONG THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR VAIL PASS...WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THESE AREAS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /357 PM MST/...
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY STABLE WITH STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS.
EXPECT NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES TUESDAY...THEN A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE 5-
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM UP...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS SOME GUIDANCE DUE TO THE STRONG
SURFACE INVERSIONS EXPECTED AND COLD MORNING LOWS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
...NEXT STORM TO PASS NEXT WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THANKSGIVING: TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS
THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD...THEN TRANSLATES EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INVADE AND THICKEN ON
THANKSGIVING. OTHERWISE EXPECT BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON THE HOLIDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON NORTH-FACING SLOPES. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL SATURATE THE PROFILE AND
PRODUCE SHOWERS.

STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS. BUT THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS IN THE 12Z&18Z RUNS FOR A DOUBLE BARREL TROUGH PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME...BUT COULD CAUSE SOME TROUBLE FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS
RETURNING HOME. TRAVELERS SHOULD CONSIDER CARRYING TIRES CHAINS...A
SURVIVAL KIT...AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR TRIPS THIS WEEKEND.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: AN INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT
VEERING THE UPPER FLOW FROM SW TO W WITH 500MB -28C COLD CORE
SWEEPING THROUGH SOUTHERN WY ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO THE
VALLEY BOTTOMS NORTH...5-6KFT CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: A -32C COLD CORE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH
THE UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DROP TO EL
PASO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES SATURDAY
NIGHT VEERING THE UPPER FLOW TO NORTH. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.

MONDAY: A DRY NW FLOW LEAVES THE VALLEYS INVERTED AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS...IN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS...ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND OVER THE PEAKS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.........JDC
SHORT TERM.....CJC/JDC
LONG TERM......JOE
AVIATION.......CJC/JDC