000
FXUS63 KGLD 051804
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1204 PM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.UPDATE...
1154 AM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. THIS WAS TO REDUCE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND TAKE THUNDER OUT OF THE WEATHER DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY. KEPT IN ISOLATED FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS THAT STILL MAY
OCCUR. OTHERWISE...TWEEKED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST DATA.

BULLER
&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
BECOME ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS THE TROUGH
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
WESTERN KANSAS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THE NAM12 INDICATES THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND 21Z. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD COME LATER TONIGHT
IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE COMES ACROSS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. PLAN TO GO
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER 06Z-12Z SAT. THE SOUTHERN ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY MORNING AND MERGES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE THEN
MOVES INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT IT APPEARS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE
FORCING AGAIN FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IN THE GRIDS.

NORTHEAST WIND WILL HELP CAUSE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TODAY AND WILL
HELP KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S.  BY SATURDAY 850
TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH SO THAT MAX READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
70S AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
1154 AM MDT FRI SEP 5 2008

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...TEDIOUS TAF FORECAST FOR BOTH SITES. WILL BE
HARD TO GET RID OF CLOUD COVER. INITIALLY WILL HAVE CEILINGS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE MVFR BUT MAY DIP BRIEFLY INTO MVFR. FROM 06Z AND ON
...CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH AREA. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SPOTTY AND CHOSE TO HANDLE IT WITH VCSH. BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z IF
PRECIPITATION IS NOT AFFECTING THE TAF SITES...THERE WILL BE FOG
AND STRATUS CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS.

BULLER
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$