000 FXUS63 KGLD 240453 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 953 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009 .UPDATE... 831 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009 HAD EARLIER UPDATED TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS. PRECIPITATION MAY BE ENDING A TAD SOONER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED BUT GRIDS ARE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE. BULLER && .DISCUSSION... 245 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009 WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 4PM MST. SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HOW MUCH SNOW AND WIND IT WILL BRING TO THE TRI-STATE REGION. CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN HOUR TO TWO MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT IS WELL THROUGH THE REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE QUICKER MOVEMENT...COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS PRODUCING MAINLY SNOW INSTEAD OF A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE FASTER MOTION IS ALSO MOVING THE AREA OF BEST LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MORE QUICKLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME OF BEST SNOWFALL. THE SNOW HAS ALREADY ENDED ACROSS VIRTUALLY OF OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH A PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES AND A WARMING OF TEMPERATURE DUE IN PART TO THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND ALSO SOMEWHAT TO THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS. THIS HAS CHANGED PRECIPITATION BACK TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE OPEN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE VORTICITY MAXES IN THE UPPER FLOW ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. ONCE THE VORTICITY MAXES ROTATE EAST OF THE LOW...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS MEANS AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIMITED TO 3 INCHES OR LESS WITH ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GROUND OF LESS THAN 3 INCHES DUE TO WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS...NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS STORM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LARGER SCALE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF FEATURES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. LOCKHART && .AVIATION... 952 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009 FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. AFTER ABOUT 22Z...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH FROM THE WEST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. BLM && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$