000
FXUS63 KGRB 050733
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
233 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

REMNANTS OF GUSTAV PRODUCED MORE RAIN IN PARTS OF LOCAL AREA THAN
ALL OF AUGUST /E.G., LEDGEVIEW IN CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY RECEIVED
OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON THURSDAY -- COMPARED TO 0.22
INCH FOR AUGUST/. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY ERODE IN THE EAST TODAY.

A PAIR OF SHORTWV TROFS HEAD FOR STATE WITH SCT SHOWERS LATER
TNGT INTO AT LEAST SAT MORNING.

GFS MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO CURRENT FCST...SO LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...

...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
BROAD UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER LOWER 48. QUESTION OF PERIOD IS
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH FLOW. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
BLEND OF ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLES FOR PERIOD. OP GFS APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE WITH STRENGTH OF FEATURES. SIG SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SUN AFTN/EVE. WAA AHEAD OF SYSTEM BRING IN CLOUDS SAT
NIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WILL KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON
SUN WITH SURFACE FRONT PASSAGE. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY LIMITED...SO
QPF LIGHT. TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS QUICKER IN
REMOVING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
WISCONSIN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
EAST OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SET UP WITH
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SIDED
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND THE GFS WILL NOT INTRODUCE A
A CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. ECMWF IS QUICKER
IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEFORE FAST MOVING WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT AREA LATER
TONIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AFTER
06/06Z.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
JKL/TE/ECKBERG